JEFFERSON CITY — A survey released Friday by ºüÀêÊÓƵ University and polling firm YouGov suggests that on the issue of abortion, Missouri voters aren’t in alignment with the Republicans who control state government.
The survey of 900 likely voters, conducted between Aug. 8 and 16, showed majorities in favor of abortion rights in certain instances — including earliest in a woman’s pregnancy, and in cases of rape and incest.
The results signal an opportunity for abortion rights supporters in deep-red Missouri, where there has been a near-total ban on abortions since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June.Â
But even with voters appearing to reject certain Republican-backed abortion limits, the annual poll showed respondents were still favoring the GOP candidate in this November’s U.S. Senate election.
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Republican Attorney General Eric Schmitt led Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine by a double-digit margin, 49% to 38%.
Schmitt led Valentine among voters in all income categories, including those making less than $50,000. Independents were backing Schmitt over Valentine 44% to 33%, with nearly a quarter of that bloc saying they’d back someone else or weren’t sure whom they’d support.
Schmitt led all age groups except 18- to 29-year-olds, who backed Valentine 55% to Schmitt’s 28%. He also led Valentine with men and women.
“Schmitt seems to have a pretty solid lead on Valentine,â€Â said Steve Rogers, director of the SLU/YouGov poll.
Abortion, other issues
Rogers said the responses to some of the abortion questions stood out to him.
“Even I was a little bit surprised that Missouri was maybe so accepting of abortion being legal in some circumstances,†Rogers said.Â
Missouri’s current abortion law — approved in 2019 — outlaws nearly all abortions, including in cases of rape and incest. The only exception is for medical emergencies. Â
The poll showed wide majorities disagreed with a lack of exceptions for rape and incest.
In cases of rape, 75% of respondents, including 60% of Republicans, supported allowing legal abortions. The figure was higher in cases of incest, with 79% of those surveyed voicing support for legal abortions.
When the life of the mother is in jeopardy, 87% of respondents supported access to abortion.
Fifty-eight percent of respondents approved of allowing abortions in the first eight weeks of pregnancy — including 91% of Democrats surveyed, 58% of independents and 32% of Republicans.
Thirty-two percent of respondents opposed allowing abortions in the first eight weeks, and 10% weren’t sure.
Support for abortion rights shrank to 40% when respondents were asked whether the procedure should be allowed in the first 15 weeks of a pregnancy.
Forty-six percent of respondents disagreed with allowing abortions in the first 15 weeks.
The poll had a margin of error of 3.75%.
Missouri’s near-total ban didn’t kick in until after the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in June to overturn Roe v. Wade, the 1973 decision that ushered in federal protections for abortion rights.
The ruling left the question of abortion rights up to the states. Missouri’s law stated that if the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the strict ban on abortions would be triggered.
Pollsters asked a smaller sample size — 453 respondents for a margin of error of nearly 6% — whether they agreed with the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Those surveyed were mixed: 47% of respondents agreed with the ruling while 50% disagreed.
Within those figures, 31% of respondents voiced strong approval and 38% voiced strong disapproval.
Pollsters asked a sample of 447 likely voters how they’d vote on a referendum to end Missouri’s abortion ban. Forty-eight percent of respondents said they would vote to reverse the ban, while 40% said they would leave it in place. Thirteen percent were undecided and the margin of error for the question was 6%.
Sixty-five percent of respondents disagreed with allowing transgender student athletes to compete on sports teams that align with their gender identity — including nearly a third of Democrats polled (31%).
Pollsters asked a sample size of 447 respondents the question; the margin of error was 6%.
Pollsters gauged support for student loan forgiveness among 900 respondents. Asked if the federal government should forgive up to $10,000 in federal student loan debt, Missourians were sharply divided.
The poll was conducted before President Joe Biden announced loan forgiveness measures on Wednesday.
According to the poll, 45% of those surveyed supported forgiving the debt, while 43% opposed it — well within the poll’s 3.75% margin of error.
Respondents with a high school education were evenly split, with 44% supporting such an action and 43% opposing it.Â
Four-year college graduates were also mixed, with 45% in support and 47% opposed.
Responses based on income were noticeably different: 55% of respondents earning less than $50,000 supported the forgiveness, while only 39% of those earning between $50,000 and $100,000 were in favor.Â
Forty-two percent of people polled earning more than $100,000 supported the loan forgiveness.
Biden, Blunt, Hawley, Parson
Support for top elected officials fell over the last year.Â
A wide majority respondents — 62% — disapproved of President Joe Biden’s job performance, with 49% surveyed strongly disapproving of the Democratic president. Only 36% of respondents approved of Biden’s performance.
Disapproval for Biden had grown over the last year, from 54% in a poll last July.
But Republicans also saw falling poll numbers over the past year.
Only 35% of respondents voiced support for retiring U.S. Sen. Roy Blunt in the poll, down from 40% last year.
Blunt — who has backed bipartisan gun and infrastructure laws — received 55% support from Republicans surveyed, while 82% of Republicans favored U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley.
Hawley wasn’t immune from falling approval numbers either: 46% of respondents approved of his performance this year compared with 52% last year.
Still, he remained above water, with 44% of respondents disapproving of his performance.
Gov. Mike Parson had the highest approval rating among elected officials included in the poll, at 50%. Forty-four percent disapproved.
But Parson’s approval also took a hit compared to last year, when 53% of respondents to the SLU/YouGov poll supported him.