Eight Republican-led states this year left an interstate cooperative that seeks to maintain accurate voter registration rolls, and three more may join them — a move that election security experts say is fueled by conspiracy theories.
Earlier this month, Virginia's top election official said the state would become the latest to stop participating in the Electronic Registration Information Center, commonly called ERIC, because of concerns over privacy and confidentiality of voter information, among a list of other reasons.
Other states with Republican-led legislatures may soon leave ERIC, including Alaska, Texas and Wisconsin, where lawmakers may propose or already have introduced legislation to leave the cooperative. Republican lawmakers in North Carolina and Oklahoma have also proposed legislation that would prevent their states from joining ERIC.
Election security experts worry the move is part of a larger trend away from nonpartisan election administration, potentially leading to inaccurate voter databases.
To prevent voter fraud, the nonprofit organization compares voter registration data from participating states with federal death and postal records to help states rid voter rolls of people who may have moved or died. Participating states also must send postcards to residents who are eligible to vote but are unregistered.
Until this year, ERIC was seen as one of the least controversial election programs in the country, with a mix of red and blue states participating and a mission to not only keep clean voter rolls (a common demand of Republican-led states) but also to encourage voter registration (a priority for Democrats).
But Republican attitudes toward the program changed over the past year with the rise of disinformation surrounding the country's election systems, fueled by criticism from former President Donald Trump and his allies. Trump falsely claimed that ERIC "'pumps the rolls' for Democrats and does nothing to clean them up."
The eight states that left the group this year have not entirely mimicked Trump's language but have complained about its push to help register new voters and about rigid internal rules that make it difficult to change bylaws.
"In short, ERIC's mandate has expanded beyond that of its initial intent — to improve the accuracy of voter rolls," wrote Virginia Elections Commissioner Susan Beals in a May 11 letter to ERIC.
Beals, who was appointed by Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, said the state would seek information-sharing agreements with its neighboring states in an "apolitical fashion." Virginia was one of seven founding members of ERIC when it launched in 2012, backed by then-Gov. Bob McDonnell, a Republican.
Another reason Beals cites for leaving ERIC is the "increasing and uncertain costs" associated with the departures of seven other states that have left the cooperative this year: Alabama, Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio and West Virginia. Twenty-five other states are still in ERIC, which is funded by member states' fees.
In a March open letter, Shane Hamlin, the organization's executive director, addressed the "misinformation" surrounding ERIC and defended its voter data security measures.
The departures have rattled many in the elections field, who say an accurate voter roll is a moving target, because voters move, come of age and die every day.
When Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft joined ERIC in 2018, he thought it would be a good way to have safer, more credible elections by going after multistate voter fraud. But the Republican soon developed concerns over the organization's mandate that states reach out to residents who are not registered to vote, which he said is "a waste of money" and could be viewed as partisan.
Ashcroft said he argued for months for systemic changes to ERIC to no avail, including advocating for the removal of a "hyperpartisan individual" on the organization's board, alluding to David Becker, who helped found ERIC and was a non-voting member.
Becker, who is now the executive director of the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation & Research, a nonprofit that supports local election officials nationwide, has been one of the nation's most vocal critics of the election disinformation and denialism that spread after Trump falsely claimed the 2020 presidential election was stolen. Becker left ERIC in March, attributing his departure to a heavy personal workload.
Some Republicans have defended the utility of ERIC, including Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who said in March that states that prioritize "actual election integrity over politics are going to stay in ERIC," giving them more accurate voter rolls than those states that left.
In California, a Democratic-sponsored proposal to join ERIC, currently making its way through committees in the state Assembly, enjoys bipartisan support.
ERIC will still be a useful tool for the remaining states, especially if California joins, said Pamela Smith, president and chief executive officer of the nonprofit Verified Voting, noting the state accounts for a tenth of the voters in the country.
"When that bill gets through the process, it will be sizable in its impact given the quantity of data involved," she said, "offsetting much of the lost data from states recently departing."
The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024
1. West Virginia
2. Montana
3. Ohio
4. Arizona
5. Nevada
6. Wisconsin
7. Michigan
8. Pennsylvania
9. Texas
10. Florida
Interactive: 2024 Senate map
Analysis: Republican have big opportunity to recapture Senate
Opportunity is ripe for Republicans to win back the Senate next year — if they can land the candidates to pull it off.
The GOP needs a net gain of one or two seats to flip the chamber, depending on which party wins the White House in 2024, and it's Democrats who are defending the tougher seats. Democrats hold seven of the 10 seats that CNN ranks as most likely to flip party control next year — and the top three are all in states former President Donald Trump carried twice.
But this spring's recruitment season, coming on the heels of a midterm cycle marred by problematic GOP candidates, will likely go a long way toward determining how competitive the Senate map is next year.
National Republicans got a top pick last week, with Gov. Jim Justice announcing his Senate bid in West Virginia — the seat most likely to flip party control in 2024. (Rankings are based on CNN's reporting, fundraising figures and historical data about how states and candidates have performed.) But Justice appears headed for a contentious and expensive primary. And in many other top races, the GOP hasn't yet landed any major candidates.
Democrats, meanwhile, are thankful that most of their vulnerable incumbents are running for reelection, while a high-profile House member has largely cleared the field for one of their open Senate seats.
The unknown remains West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin. Responding to Justice's candidacy, Manchin — who has said he'll decide about running by the end of the year — had this to say to CNN about a potentially messy GOP primary: "Let the games begin."
The anti-tax Club for Growth's political arm has already committed to spending $10 million to back West Virginia Rep. Alex Mooney in the GOP primary. And tensions between the club, which has turned against Trump, and more establishment Republicans could become a feature of several top Senate races this cycle, especially with the National Republican Senatorial Committee weighing more aggressive involvement in primaries to weed out candidates it doesn't think can win general elections.
In the 2022 cycle, most of Trump's handpicked candidates in swing states stumbled in the general election. But the former president picked up a key endorsement this week from NRSC Chair Steve Daines. The Montana Republican has stayed close with Trump, CNN has previously reported, in a bid to ensure he's aligned with leadership.
Democrats defending tough seats have previously used GOP primaries to their advantage. Manchin survived in 2018 in part because his opponent was state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey. That wasn't an accident. Democrats had spent big attacking one of his primary opponents to keep him out of the general election.
Last year's midterms underscored that candidates really do matter after Republicans failed to harness favorable national winds in some key races. In a presidential year, the national environment is likely to loom large, especially with battleground states hosting key Senate races. It will also test whether some of the last remaining senators who represent states that back the opposite parties' presidential nominees can hold on.
President Joe Biden, who carried half of the states on this list in 2020, made official last week that he's running for reelection. The GOP presidential field is slowly growing, with Trump still dominating most primary polling. It's too early to know, however, what next year's race for the White House will look like or which issues, whether it's abortion or crime or the economy, will resonate.
So for now, the parties are focused on what they can control: candidates. Even though the 2024 map is stacked in their favor, Republicans can't win with nobody. But there's plenty of time for would-be senators to get into these races. Some filing deadlines — in Arizona, for example — aren't for nearly another year. And there's an argument to be made that well-funded or high-profile names have no reason to get in early.
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A voter arrives at the Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 3103 polling location on Nov. 8, 2022, in Fredericksburg, Virginia. After months of candidates campaigning, Americans are voting in the midterm elections to decide close races across the nation.