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The UAW is in negotiations for new contracts with the “Big Three� automakers — GM, Ford and Stellantis. The current labor agreements expire Thursday at 10:59 p.m. here, or midnight in Detroit.

Around 4,100 people work at GM’s assembly plant in Wentzville — one of the company’s largest U.S. sites — 3,700 of them represented by the union.

Wentzville workers, represented by UAW Local 2250, are “ready to make some major gains,� said Katie Deatherage, president of the local. “Nobody wants to strike, but we know sometimes we have to.�

A strike would be costly: The last GM strike was in 2019, and the company reported a $3.6 billion pre-tax loss from what became a 40-day walkout. It would also spell a hit to the network of suppliers, some local, that serve the Wentzville plant. Gregory DeYong, associate professor of operations management at Southern Illinois University-Carbondale, said in recent decades, automakers have embraced smaller shipments from suppliers of “just-in-time� deliveries. As a result, auto suppliers typically have smaller inventories.

“If there is a strike, the suppliers just don’t have a place to store that product, and they’re going to shut down pretty quickly,� he said. “The whole just-in-time system causes the ripples to flow quickly through the supply chain. On the other hand, they’re able to start back up fairly quickly when the strike is over.�

Companies that aren’t reliant on any single plant would fare better, he added.

The impacts, DeYong said, would depend heavily on which companies were affected, and how a strike is carried out. As of Tuesday, many questions remained.

“It’s really hard to get a read on where they’re going to go with this,� DeYong said.

Negotiations continue

The GM and UAW bargaining teams worked through the weekend, the company said in a statement, and are working to reach an agreement that both rewards workers and allows GM to grow.

This year UAW President Shawn Fain has taken an aggressive tone throughout the talks, setting high expectations for workers. Last week he called a GM contract offer “insulting.�

The UAW typically follows a pattern bargaining strategy, where it focuses on negotiations with one of the three automakers, and then uses that deal as the template for the other two companies. GM was the UAW’s target during the last round of negotiations, in 2019.

A strike against Stellantis seems the most likely outcome, but a strike against all three is possible, wrote David Whiston, a U.S. auto industry stock analyst with Morningstar, in a recent note. Last week, Fain told The that the union plans to go on strike against any automaker that hasn’t reached a deal by the time the current agreements expire. A strike against all three companies would be unprecedented, and the union would risk spending its strike fund more quickly.

The 2019 strike was GM’s longest walkout since 1998, when workers went on strike for 54 days in Flint, Michigan.

Because of the steep demands the UAW has made this time around, Whiston wrote, experts this year are more concerned than usual about the possibility of a strike.

The negotiations this year bear stark contrasts to the talks in 2019.

In 2019, GM was in the midst of a series of plant closures. In places like Wentzville, some workers had just relocated hundreds of miles from the shuttered Lordstown, Ohio site and were eager for more assurances around job security.

The 2019 strike ended when the groups reached an agreement that included ratification bonuses of $11,000 for union members, and $4,500 for temporary workers. The company committed to invest $7.7 billion in at least five facilities, including $1.5 billion to ready the Wentzville plant to make newer models of midsize trucks. But the agreement allowed GM to close the Lordstown factory, and sites in Warren, Michigan, and near Baltimore.

Now, the automotive industry is undergoing profound shifts. Carmakers are making massive investments in their electric vehicle segments, which are growing, but in some cases aren’t profitable yet. GM has pledged to sell only electric passenger vehicles by 2035. Stellantis is targeting 50% EV sales in the U.S. by the end of the decade, and 100% in Europe. Ford has to spend $50 billion on EVs through 2026.

In Wentzville, GM just wrapped up the $1.5 billion upgrade that readied the plant to make newer models of midsize, internal combustion engine trucks. A Wentzville plant executive said earlier this year that he expects sites that only make internal combustion engine cars now will eventually go through a “transitional period� into the EV market, but that the cars made here are a “big contributor� to GM, and will remain relevant for years to come. The profits from the internal combustion engine vehicles made in plants like Wentzville are expected to support the company’s development of EVs and batteries.

The union has more leverage in this round of talks than in the past, Whiston, the stock analyst, said in a phone interview Tuesday, because automakers are doing better financially than during previous negotiation cycles. That said, the companies also face much more competition.

“Tesla is a formidable competitor, especially on the cost front. But it’s not just them. It’s everybody,� Whiston said. “It’s so much more competitive.�

GM put forth a proposal on Sept. 7 that included a 10% wage increase for most employees, plus a one-time, $6,000 “inflation-recognition� payment. Fain said in a statement that the offer “doesn’t come close to an equitable agreement.�

In February, the UAW agreed to to $500 per week.

“Our hopes are that they can come to an agreement,� said Deatherage, the local union president. “Strikes are never easy for anyone.�