The Democratic primary race for the 1st Congressional District seat had been an “either/or†affair since November:
Would U.S. Rep. Cori Bush of ºüÀêÊÓƵ keep her office, or would she be pushed out by ºüÀêÊÓƵ County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell?
But the math got more complicated last week when seasoned legislator Maria Chappelle-Nadal joined the fray.
And while politicos discuss how her entry will affect Bush and Bell, Chappelle-Nadal wants no part of “spoiler†talk.
“No one owns a seat, and no one is owed a seat,†Chappelle-Nadal said. “And I’m confident that I am the best candidate.â€
Chappelle-Nadal served 16 years as a state representative and senator. Known for her fight to clean up radioactive waste in the ºüÀêÊÓƵ area, she left Jefferson City because of term limits. She lost a primary bid for this U.S. House seat in 2016.
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Also, she gained notoriety in 2017 for calling on social media for the assassination of former President Donald Trump. She apologized for the post and removed it.
Now, Chappelle-Nadal said both Bush and Bell come up short in providing actual leadership.
Chappelle-Nadal said, “We need a better advocate†on radioactive waste issues in north ºüÀêÊÓƵ County, adding that while Bush has contributed verbal support, she has contributed little substantive action.
She even went as far as giving a nod to a Republican on the issue, saying, “(U.S. Sen.) Josh Hawley has been there and has actually done things.â€
As for Bell, Chappelle-Nadal has been a vocal critic of his performance in office and said he needs “to be held accountable†for failing to prosecute violent criminals.
So now — even though a late March filing deadline still allows perennial candidates and political gadflies to jump in — the field of major players seems set.
That gives political pundits a solid six months to crunch the poll numbers, read the electoral tea leaves and take a stab at predicting the outcome.
Several strategists said Chappelle-Nadal’s entry into the race will help Bush, citing the old axiom that having multiple challengers helps the incumbent.
“I’m just not sure there’s enough anti-incumbent votes to spread around,†said one source, who declined to be quoted by name.
(Most political strategists involved with the Democratic party did not want to be identified. Let’s face it: Today’s story target could be tomorrow’s paying client.)
But a pair of GOP strategists, John Hancock and Gregg Keller, were willing to weigh in under their names.
A former state legislator, Hancock also is a former chairman and executive director of the Missouri Republican Party. He acknowledged that Bush has a “committed, hard-core progressive base,†but then questioned if that base is big enough to carry her to another term.
“I don’t think so,†he said.
“Then the question becomes whether or not she’s done enough to alienate those outside of that base,†Hancock said. “Probably, she has.â€
Bush has been drawing fire from two directions. First, questions about her finances began a year ago, and she now is under federal investigation for her spending on security services.
Then, for the past four months, she has drawn substantial heat for her anti-Israel positions in the wake of the Oct. 7 terrorist attack by Hamas.
In the same vein, the new boundaries of Bush’s district take in several municipalities with substantial Jewish populations, such as University City, Creve Coeur, Olivette and part of Clayton.
Chappelle-Nadal is a lifelong University City resident who has in the past been strongly supportive of Israel. Bell also has expressed his support for Israel in the Hamas conflict.
Add to all that, several national pro-Israel organizations have amassed a multimillion-dollar war chest aimed at defeating progressive members of Congress, with Bush’s name being high on the list.
Which brings us to the reality part of politics: money.
“If you’re going to beat an incumbent, you have to get your story out there,†Hancock said. “That takes money ... and Bell’s already drawing money ²Ô²¹³Ù¾±´Ç²Ô²¹±ô±ô²â.â€
Both Hancock and Keller said the pro-Israel committees typically fund only one candidate per race and that it appears to be Bell in this case.
Federal campaign reports show that Bell raised slightly more money than Bush in the last quarter of 2023 and had almost twice as much money on hand: $409,000, to Bush’s $216,000.
“That’s why I don’t see (Chappelle-Nadal) being a serious factor in the race,†Hancock said. “I just don’t think she can amass a significant amount of money.â€
For the most part, Keller agrees with Hancock that Bell is the strongest challenger with the best chance to raise the money needed to beat an incumbent.
“But I think that if (Chappelle-Nadal) entering the race hurts anybody, it hurts Cori Bush,†said Keller.
Keller now is working on the campaigns of several GOP candidates, including attorney general hopeful Will Scharf and state Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman, who is running for a U.S House seat.
When looking at Bush’s support over the past four years, Keller said, “one of the lanes in the race is very progressive Black women,†which Bush has controlled in her previous two victories.
“But now,†Keller said, “I think Chappelle-Nadal and Bush are battling in the same lanes.â€