As Major League Baseball clubs have sent a clear, chilling signal for what awaits free agents in the winter ahead and seeds the market for limited spending, the Cardinals can claim credit for one of the most obvious and richest options turned down in the past 48 hours.
No, not Kolten Wong.
That was just possible, not obvious.
Out in Arizona, among the players who had options declined by the Diamondbacks was pitcher Mike Leake. He had come to the end of the five-year, $80-million contract he signed with the Cardinals as a free agent a lifetime or seven ago. This was a gimme putt for Arizona, and it was something the organization planned to do the moment they acquired the righthander from Seattle. It was part of that trade. Leake, who opted out of the 2020 season due to health concerns, had a $18-million team option for 2021, and it came with a tagalong $5-million buyout. A condition of the trade was that Seattle would pick up the $5 million.
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They had the money and then some, after all, because of the Cardinals covered a healthy portion of Leake’s contract all along.
That move was obvious.
Others have been ominous.
As part of a league-wide liquidating of options, the Cardinals declined the $12.5-million option second baseman Wong right on the eve of him possibly winning his second Gold Glove Award. The Cardinals preferred to pay the $1 million buyout and possibly save close to $11 million by going with a cheaper alternative at second. The Washington Nationals paid $5.75 million in total buys to decline the options for Adam Eaton, Howie Kendrick, and Anibal Sanchez – a year after they contributed to a World Series championship.
Brad Hand, a lefty reliever with Cleveland who was acquired at a high cost via trade with San Diego, was reportedly placed on waivers this week. Why? Well, Cleveland wanted to see if there were any takes for control of his $10-million option for 2021 before it was declined, evidently.
All of these moves are the first sign of a hot stove unlikely to light this winter because of all the bills clubs will insist they have to pay. They are fleeing from spending and contracts signed in a different economy.
Due to the pandemic, Major League Baseball teams did not draw much revenue from ticket sales in 2020. Broadcast fees were similarly reduced, as were some operating costs, such as player salaries. During an interview this past week with Sportico, commissioner Rob Manfred suggested the leagues took on $8.3-billion in debt this season and had operating losses nearing $3 billion.
The Cardinals have argued in the past week that their losses were more acute than some other teams because they hinge their spending heavily on ticket revenue from 3.3 million to 3.4 million tickets sold.
They expect a cut in payroll.
One of the most disconcerting moves of the days since the end of the World Series was the Colorado Rockies declining the option for Daniel Murphy. The option was a hefty $12 million. But the buy was a big $6 million. So, the Rockies would rather pay $6 million now to find some way to save that $6 million from 2021. That’s a hint for what’s coming.
The Cardinals were among the many teams who had layoffs at the end of the season with the new fiscal year approach. The Cardinals’ ends on Halloween. Reducing costs by cutting positions and reducing salaries are moves industries throughout the country are having to take because of the COVID-19 pandemic. John Mozeliak, president of baseball operations, said the choice to cut $11.5 million from the payroll (Wong’s $12.5 million salary minus the $1 million buyout) presented an opportunity for immediate financial “flexibility.â€
That is one of the ways teams are setting a mousetrap for players.
More on that in a moment, because first, it’s important to illustrate the sheer quantity of options that have been declined so far, with others possible. Here are players, according to local reporters, AP, and other sources, who had their options declined (buyout noted in parentheses in most cases):
• Mike Leake, RHP, Diamondbacks -- $18 million ($5 million)
• Ryan Braun, OF/1B, Brewers -- $15 million ($4 million)
• Charlie Morton, RHP, Rays -- $15 million (no buyout)
• Dee Strange-Gordon, 2B/OF, Mariners -- $14 million ($1 million)
• Kolten Wong, 2B, Cardinals -- $12.5 million ($1 million)
• Daniel Murphy, 1B, Rockies -- $12 million ($6 million)
• Anibal Sanchez, RHP, Nationals -- $12 million ($2 million)
• Adam Eaton, OF, Nationals -- $10.5 million ($1.5 million)
• Wilson Ramos, C, Mets -- $10 million ($1.5 million)
• Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees -- $10 million
• Chase Anderson, RHP, Blue Jays -- $9.5 million ($500,000)
• Robinson Chirinos, C, Mets -- $6.5 million ($1 million)
• Howie Kendrick, UT/DH, Nationals -- $6.5 million ($2.25 million)
• Todd Frazier, 3B, Mets -- $5.75 million ($1.5 million)
• Sergio Romo, RHP, Twins -- $4.75 million ($250,000)
• Jedd Gyorko, 1B/INF, Brewers -- $4.5 million ($1 million)
• Eric Sogard, INF, Brewers -- $4.5 million ($500,000)
• Mike Zunino, C, Rays -- $4.5 million
• Hector Rondon, RHP, Diamondbacks -- $4 million ($500,000)
• Eric Thames, 1B/DH/OF, Nationals -- $4 million ($1 million)
• Darren O’Day, RHP, Braves -- $3.5 million
That’s 21 players hitting the free agent that was already thick with nearly 150 free agents. And there’s another wave of free agents ahead. As teams adjust their rosters and look to slash additional costs, there will be arbitration-eligible players who will not be tendered contracts. Teams will do that to free themselves from the arbitration process that will be dictated by preexisting precedent, not a pandemic-limited marketplace. And that will unleash another gush of free agents.
Teams are assuring the free-agent pool will be teeming with available players, and what happens with there’s something in abundant supply and there’s limited demand?
Prices drop.
So is this bad sign ... good strategy?
An element of all these options being declined is the reality that as teams do this they are improving their chances of finding a bargain on the open market. That could mean some of the above players will be signed for less than their option – and for longer. The Cardinals, for example, have not “closed the door†to discussing a multi-year deal with Wong that would give him years and them a reduced cost for the forthcoming seasons. It’s not clear if that’s appealing to him, but it’s impossible to ignore how that conversation is more appealing to the Cardinals in an overstocked market than picking up an option with a value from a different economy.
Teams, players, and agents as a whole are concerned that there will a severe cut in spending throughout the game this winter and that player’s expectations will have to adjust to acknowledge a year of limited revenues.
Less spending does not mean less signing.
There will still be jobs open.
There will now be more players to fill them.
The week’s torrent of players set free as teams reduce payrolls wasn’t just a harbinger of frustrating things to come. It was priming the market, too.
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