FLORA, Ill. — As Ruthie Welty waited for her coffee at Common Grounds Coffee Lounge last month, she thought about who she’ll vote for in the upcoming Republican primary election for the U.S. House.
Her options are a conservative incumbent who sees bipartisanship as necessary to making government work, and a far-right challenger who says he’s willing to shut government down to advance his agenda.
But the 76-year-old military veteran from rural southeast Illinois had one dominant feeling about the race.
“I hate to see Christian Republicans going against each other,†Welty said.
The contest in the 12th Congressional District, which takes in a large swath of mostly rural southern Illinois stretching into the Metro East, is a microcosm of the national fight playing out in the Republican Party, which has seen the business of Congress interrupted by lengthy leadership fights and dysfunction.
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On March 19, voters here will be deciding between Rep. Mike Bost, who has represented the district since 2015, and Darren Bailey, a former state legislator who made a name for himself during the pandemic with his combative style.
Their policies don’t differ much: They’re gun-owners, staunchly anti-abortion, critics of the Biden administration’s border policies and loyal to former President Donald Trump, who previously endorsed them both in separate races. They both say they are devout Christians.
But the key difference between the two is their position on bipartisanship, and it’s symbolic of a rift within the GOP nationally over government spending. On one side is a majority of Republicans who admit bipartisanship is often necessary to pay the bills — and federal workers, including military servicemembers.
Bost counts himself among the majority.
“I’m a governing conservative,†Bost told members of the local farm bureau at a campaign stop in Belleville last month. “Governing means, yes, we’re still going to operate government. We’re not going to blow up the world. We’re going to actually allow government to do its job, and we’re going to be as wise as we can.â€
On the other side is the House Freedom Caucus, a small, far-right, pro-Trump faction of House Republicans that sees bipartisan deals as failures. They block House business using procedural rules, and some of its members have said they’d to secure spending cuts, among other demands.
Bailey’s on that side.
“Shut it down and let the American people rise up and wake up, and see that failed leadership has created that,†Bailey said in January during an interview at his homestead in rural southeastern Illinois.
The 12th Congressional District covers 34 southern Illinois counties measuring more than 5,000 square miles, and it’s deeply conservative. Whoever wins the Republican primary in the 12th District is likely to win the general election.
Some will vote for Bost because they know him, and feel he has been a true conservative and loyal to Trump, said Kent Redfield, political science professor emeritus at the University of Illinois at Springfield.
But there are others, a core of Make America Great Again, or MAGA, conservatives, who will see Bailey as the authentic Trump candidate because of his take-it-or-leave it attitude.
“Bost has the incumbency, the loyalty, the familiarity, whatever it may be,†Redfield said. “But Bailey’s going to say, ‘I’m the real conservative. This person isn’t pure enough. I’m the MAGA person.’â€
‘What is that doing for us?’
About half a dozen people recognized Bailey, 57, as soon as he walked into Common Grounds Coffee Lounge in downtown Flora, a small city in rural southeastern Illinois.
He’s a local celebrity thanks in part to his family’s impact on the area’s modest economy — a 12,000-acre farm, a grain storage business, a trucking business and two private Christian schools. As a state legislator in 2020, he over his pandemic stay-at-home order. Bailey left the Illinois Legislature to run for governor in 2022, a bid he lost. And then last summer he announced his bid for the U.S. House.
Before Bailey could order his favorite drink at Common Grounds — a white chocolate mocha with whipped cream — Stephen Welty stopped him to shake his hand and tell him he had his vote.
“I always supported the guy in Congress now,†Welty, 77, said of Bost. But Bailey, a former state representative and senator, is the hometown candidate. He understands what southeastern Illinois stands for.
Bailey’s combative style resonates with MAGA voters. On New Year’s Eve, he posted a picture of himself doing a puzzle with his guns nearby on the dining room table, daring the governor to come and seize them after went into effect. Bailey airs regular livestreams on social media where he educates “people of the ridiculousness of government,†he said. And he believes the GOP needs to stand its ground to stop a “moral crisis†happening in America.
“Compromising to keep the government going, what is that doing for us?†Bailey said.
“We need to be able to show the American people that the Republican conservative mindset can save the day if we stand our ground.â€
‘Done what conservatives expect him to’
Bailey’s run doesn’t sit well with everyone.
Susan Genin, 67, said she likes Bailey, but doesn’t see why she should replace one conservative Republican with another.
“I don’t really feel like I want to support Bailey over Bost,†said Genin, a retired teacher who lives in Columbia. “Other people might have other feelings about Mike Bost, but it seems that he’s done really what the conservatives would expect him to.â€
While Bost’s campaign is making a pragmatic appeal, he isn’t exactly a pacifist. He has had a few heated moments during his time in politics, notably when he during a pension reform debate when he was a state legislator in 2012. Democrats later tried to portray him as “Meltdown Mike,†a radical ideologue, but it only helped endear him to frustrated downstate voters who sent him to Congress.
But Bost isn’t interested in being a part of the disruptive Freedom Caucus. He says he has the experience to make government work.
He flexed his expertise as he talked with farmers at a campaign stop in Belleville last month at the St. Clair County Farm Bureau office, a tidy building plopped down in the middle of flat farmland. For an hour he talked with the farmers about their concerns: migrants are crossing into the United States; massive solar arrays are taking up up valuable farmland; rough railroad crossings nearby are terrible for tractors.
But Bost, 63, also raised concerns about lawmakers with extreme views either to the left or right.
“The question is, how do we get the extremists, if they get elected by the people that’s fine, but how do we make sure that they don’t overall shut it down?â€
Trump’s presence looms
Both men have collected endorsements, but one endorsement in particular matters greatly to both men.
“Obviously any decision Trump would make is going to weigh heavy on this race,†said J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
Trump visited southern Illinois to endorse Bost during the 2018 congressional race. The former president also endorsed Bailey during his run for governor.
Trump’s campaign didn’t respond to a request for comment, but an endorsement from him now would mean a big fundraising boost for either candidate.
So far Bost had an advantage in that regard. He had $1.4 million in cash-on-hand at the end of the year. Bailey had just $117,383.
With or without a Trump endorsement, his presence looms large in the 12th District primary. Trump won the district by 14 points against challenger Joe Biden in 2020.
And some voters will see the primary between Bailey and Bost as a purity test for who’s the more authentic Trump candidate. Recent made political divisions more extreme, and the 12th is no exception.
“Who’s the Trumpiest?†Coleman said. “That’s a big dynamic in these races.â€