ST. LOUIS — Colleges across the ºüÀêÊÓƵ area face questions about their long-term sustainability amid a nationwide crisis in higher education.
A smaller pool of prospective students means tougher competition among universities. Public funding is harder to come by, while tuition and operating costs continue to increase. And, perhaps most foreboding, public opinion around the value of higher education has shifted, leading more students to not attend college.
Universities nationwide were already challenged by a long-term decline in birth rates when the coronavirus pandemic exacerbated enrollment declines.
Every university in the ºüÀêÊÓƵ region saw fewer students enroll in the fall 2020 semester, according to a Post-Dispatch review of enrollment data. The pandemic widened the gulf between smaller, struggling colleges and major, established universities.
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Experts believe many of those struggling institutions will not exist for long.
“The reality is we have overcapacity in higher education. It is impossible to imagine a future in which every institution is going to be able to continue on,†said Richard Staisloff, founder of , a higher education consulting firm based in Annapolis, Maryland. “That contraction is going to be painful, and it’s going to certainly impact people and their jobs and the communities in which those institutions exist.â€
Nationwide, enrollment fell 16% from its peak in the 2010-2011 school year to the 2021-2022 school year, according to the latest available data from the National Center for Education Statistics, the primary federal entity for collecting and analyzing data related to education.
Year over year, enrollment fell 1.8% in the 2021-2022 school year.
But the declines have been worse than average in Missouri.
Enrollment fell 3.5% in Missouri from the 2020-2021 to 2021-2022 school year — accounting for most of the decline experienced in all of the Midwest that year, according to the National Student Clearinghouse, which provides data and analysis to universities and policymakers.
Illinois, by comparison, only saw a 0.5% drop in enrollment over the same period. And between 2017 to 2022, Illinois’ losses totaled 12%, compared to 16.2% in Missouri.
Setbacks at ºüÀêÊÓƵ colleges
The declines have ramifications for universities’ revenues, which are typically tied to enrollment. Over the past five years, about 60% of U.S. colleges have experienced deficits because of insufficient tuition dollars, according to a 2023 report from , a national accounting firm.
Webster University experienced a 50% drop in enrollment and a loss of $128 million over the past decade. Its longtime leader, Chancellor Beth Stroble, announced her resignation last month after the Post-Dispatch reported that Webster’s board of trustees had given her and her second-in-command big pay raises despite the financial turmoil.
Moody’s credit agency last month downgraded Webster’s bond rating, indicating the private university is at higher risk of defaulting on payments because of its $100 million deficit and thinning financial reserves, according to the report. Webster took out over $60 million in bonds to pay for new high-tech buildings at its main campus in suburban Webster Groves, in a bid to attract and retain students.
Webster leaders have credited the university’s new strategies of attracting international students and focusing on health and science, technology, engineering and mathematics programs for stronger enrollment this fall.
Revenues at Fontbonne University declined more than $14 million over the past decade, leading to the recent elimination of 21 academic programs and 19 faculty positions. An effort to boost enrollment by launching a new football program largely failed when half the team dropped out of the Catholic institution in Clayton. Enrollment this fall is 874 students, down from 2,000 a decade ago.
Harris-Stowe State University, one of two historically Black colleges in the state, faces a critical test this spring, when the Higher Learning Commission visits the school. The commission placed Harris-Stowe’s accreditation “on notice†last year due to the school’s late audit of fiscal year 2021, inadequate tracking of student academic outcomes and a lack of strategies to improve retention and graduation rates. The Missouri State Board of Education will also decide in February on the accreditation of Harris-Stowe’s college of education, which is in noncompliance with the state. The university was founded in the 1800s as a teacher’s college.
Enrollment at Harris-Stowe, which is public, has fallen by one-third since the pandemic started — down to 1,098 students last year from 1,630 students in fall of 2019.
At Lindenwood University, enrollment has fallen 39% over the past decade, from a little over 12,000 students to 7,288 this fall. Officials at the St. Charles County college attribute the decline to the closing of its Belleville campus and the phasing out of satellite locations.
Last week, the school announced it would eliminate 10 athletic programs at the end of the academic year, impacting 280 students, as part of a “rebalancing†to match the number of sports its peers in the Ohio Valley Conference offer, said Joe Sallustio, senior vice president.
“It was a growth strategy for a lot of institutions, to add more sports and bring more students in,†Sallustio said. “(But) that’s not a sustainable strategy.â€
The school in recent years has focused on expanding its online classes and creating flexible programs for non-traditional students that allow them to start mid-semester. Sallustio said the strategies are working: Enrollment this fall was higher than it has been in the past two years, the first time in a decade that enrollment has grown.
“If you’re not available to serve that student with an opportunity to get started at that point, then that student will look elsewhere,†he said. “So part of it is making sure the institution is ready to serve those students when the student is ready.â€
Colleges can’t rely on students coming to them anymore, said Kathy Osborn, a former vice chancellor at the University of Missouri-ºüÀêÊÓƵ and current leader of the Regional Business Council.
There are more career and training options available that don’t require a four-year degree. And the Regional Business Council has made more of an effort to connect K-12 school counselors and administrators from low-income communities with businesses in the region to show students potential career paths. Some won’t require a traditional college degree; other careers may inspire students to obtain a degree years later.
Colleges will have to think creatively and be proactive in order to survive, she added.
“Smaller universities and colleges are probably challenged right now,†Osborn said. “But I think the larger, well-funded universities that are very smart about what actions they take will continue to fare quite well in our society.â€
Some schools are growing
There are some bright spots in the enrollment data.
ºüÀêÊÓƵ University has more students than ever before, totaling 15,204 this fall, including 8,502 undergraduates. International students also hit a record enrollment of 3,183, up 141% over last year. Most came through SLU’s Global Graduate initiative, launched in 2020 to attract international students to programs in business, engineering, health and tech, according to a spokeswoman.
Maryville University in Town and Country increased its undergraduate enrollment by more than 9% over last year, marking the 17th straight year of growth. The university’s growth is largely attributed to a surge in online students, who make up more than 60% of the 10,000 total enrollment.
Two small private schools in southern Illinois bulked up their incoming classes in part by attracting students from across the U.S. and internationally.
Quincy University welcomed the largest freshman class in 50 years this fall. The 1,011 total undergraduates at the Catholic liberal arts university is up 2% from last year. The freshman class of more than 500 at McKendree University in Lebanon is the second largest class in the school’s nearly 200-year history. Nearly half came from 28 foreign countries and 34 states other than Illinois.
Colleges that make these types of strategic moves can survive the economic and demographic challenges ahead, said Rachel Pauletti, lead consultant for higher education at FORVIS.
“It’s really important to remember that boards and administrators can go a long way to improving their financial standing by being intentional about where they’re making investments and where they are cutting costs,†Pauletti said. “The optimism is really coming from a place of opportunity.â€
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