ST. LOUIS — From extreme cold in February to one of the hottest Decembers on record, wild weather defined yet another year in the ºüÀêÊÓƵ region — with a white New Year’s Eve, perhaps, still to come.
On Monday, the local National Weather Service office released a of the year, based on their scientific or social impact to the area. It encompassed episodes of pronounced cold, flash flooding, severe thunderstorms and two rounds of powerful tornadoes late in the year.
The earliest milestone was the mid-February cold spell that gripped much of Missouri and the central U.S. — an event highlighted by soaring energy prices, as heating demand exploded right when natural gas wells froze in places like Texas and Oklahoma, disrupting supply. The ºüÀêÊÓƵ area was largely spared the price shocks seen elsewhere in the state and region, but still received up to 10 to 12 inches of snow. On multiple days during the storm, high temperatures in ºüÀêÊÓƵ, Columbia, Missouri, and Quincy, Illinois, were the coldest on record.
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The weather service also highlighted “considerable†flash flooding in June, in which central Missouri and northeastern parts of the state were “bombarded with dangerous severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and record daily rainfall.†Some areas saw between 4 and 8 inches of rain fall overnight, as the NWS ºüÀêÊÓƵ office issued 13 flash-flood warnings in a span of 24 hours.
Another spot on the list was reserved for widespread thunderstorms in early July that brought high winds, and even 2-inch hail to the region. Winds of 60 to 70 mph whipped the ºüÀêÊÓƵ area, downing tree limbs and leaving many without power. Flash flooding during the storm also killed a 12-year-old girl near ºüÀêÊÓƵ Lambert International Airport, while she attempted to exit a vehicle that had been swept into a large concrete storm drain, police said.
The year-end list culminates with two separate instances of deadly tornadoes hitting the region. The first occurred in late October, when “two storms produced tornadoes that remained on the ground for significant distances,†the weather service wrote. One of the twisters traveled almost 19 miles and passed through Fredericktown, Missouri, 90 miles south of ºüÀêÊÓƵ. Another stayed on the ground for 40 miles, while crossing from Missouri into Illinois.
Then, earlier this month, another rash of tornadoes struck closer to the ºüÀêÊÓƵ area, killing seven people — including six at an Amazon warehouse near Edwardsville that partially collapsed.
Experts caution that it’s difficult to establish clean linkages from a single weather event to climate change. But shifting climate trends are “playing a role in the increasing frequency of some types of extreme weather,†Adam Smith, a lead scientist for the National Centers for Environmental Information, which is a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
For instance, there is rising potential for heavy rainfall in the eastern parts of the U.S., as the warmer atmosphere is able to hold — and ultimately release — more moisture.
And despite broader warming trends, even local episodes of extreme cold are made more likely: As Arctic latitudes get warmer, the polar jet stream is weakened, allowing the “polar vortex†to showcase more extreme behavior and “dip into lower latitudes, bringing polar air farther south,†climate researchers at the University of California, Davis.
That has yet to affect ºüÀêÊÓƵ this winter, as the area has seen its third-warmest December on record, so far. The record warmth on Christmas Eve marked the region’s fifth day of 70-degree temperatures this month, tying the local record set in 1889.
A cold New Year’s?
Still, forecasters say there’s a chance snow could arrive on New Year’s Eve, just before the calendar changes.
The possibility of New Year’s weekend snow will cap an eventful week of weather, with multiple bouts of rain expected in ºüÀêÊÓƵ between now and then.
“It’s a really active weather pattern,†said Jim Sieveking, a weather service meteorologist at the local office.
He said the first wave of rain was expected to start Monday and continue into Tuesday, pounding the area with 1 to 2 inches of rain.
“(Tuesday) is really an all-day soaker,†said Sieveking.
Then, on Wednesday, a lighter system is projected to bring additional rain into the region, with the heaviest precipitation likely to stay southeast of ºüÀêÊÓƵ.
Finally, the weekend could bring snow to the area, although Sieveking said there’s still uncertainty about the track of that storm and how much cold air will enter the equation. As of Monday afternoon, he said that models were predicting two main paths the storm could take: one that stays farther north, and another that dips more to the south. If the storm stays on a more northern course, ºüÀêÊÓƵ is likely to see rain and thunderstorms. But if the southern track wins out, the area could see its first accumulation of snow, with the most significant snowfall likely to stay north of Interstate 70.
Whatever it brings — rain or snow — Sieveking said the system is expected to pass through the area late on New Year’s Eve and into New Year’s Day.
Winter Storm to start the New Year? Two possible tracks with much different weather for and . Stay tuned and plan accordingly if you are traveling across the Midwest this weekend.
— NWS ºüÀêÊÓƵ (@NWSStLouis)