Ballot could attract voters to polls in November who otherwise might sit out the election — and even a small number of additional voters could make a difference in close races.
Voters in at least eight states will decide in November whether they want to enshrine abortion rights in their state constitutions.Â
Scholars and ballot measure experts are divided on the impact ballot measures previously had on candidate elections. But in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s 2022 ruling, which ended the nationwide right to abortion, these measures are seen as ones that could sway results.
This year “is a test in this post-Dobbs world of how this issue being on the ballot will impact candidates,†said Chris Melody Fields Figueredo, executive director of The Ballot Initiative Strategy Center, which helps progressive groups with the details of pursuing and campaigning for ballot measures. “It is really dependent on whether candidates are willing to run on those issues.â€
Voters in nine states will consider measures to add the right to abortion to their state constitutions: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada and South Dakota.
One, Nebraska, also has a competing measure that would enshrine the current law, which outlaws most abortions after the first 12 weeks of pregnancy.
The Nebraska Supreme Court ruled Friday that the competing measures can both appear on the November ballot — a decision that came days after it heard arguments in three lawsuits that sought to keep one or both of the initiatives off the ballot.
Additionally, New York has an equal rights measure that would bar discrimination based on pregnancy outcomes. A judge last month to appear in the ballot measure after Democrats pushed for it to be included in the state, where congressional races could be close.
Since 2022, the position pushed by abortion rights advocates prevailed in all , including in conservative Kansas and Kentucky.
Dave Campbell, a political science professor at Notre Dame, said there could be some parallels this year to the 2004 election. That November, 11 states adopted bans on same-sex marriage and President George W. Bush, who opposed same-sex marriage, was reelected in a tight race. Republicans gained seats in both houses of Congress.
Scholars differ over whether the ballot measures — later supplanted by a Supreme Court decision to allow same-sex unions nationwide — were a major factor for Bush.
Studies found that overall voter turnout didn’t seem to get a bigger boost in states where the measures were on the ballot. Still, Campbell and a co-author found that more white protestant evangelicals did vote in those states and those additional voters heavily favored Bush — including in Ohio, where his narrow win was key to retaining his office.
The Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, who promotes reproductive freedom, could get a similar boost in her run against Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump, Campbell said.
Trump nominated the Supreme Court members who were crucial to overturning Roe and called it “a beautiful thing to watch†as states set their own restrictions.
Trump, who has shifted stances on the issue, called the after the first six weeks of pregnancy too restrictive, but recently said he would that would make abortion legal until fetal viability.
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He declined to say during Tuesday’s debate if he were elected again.
Significant numbers of Republican voters support abortion rights, but most of the party’s candidates are abortion opponents.
Kelly Hall, executive director of The Fairness Project, a nonpartisan group that supports progressive ballot measures, said such measures often get more votes than any candidates for office.
But she said there wasn’t much evidence until the abortion measures over the last two years that ballot questions would attract large numbers of voters who would otherwise not vote at all.
The issue also is mobilizing some anti-abortion voters.
Danise Rees, 23, a senior at Arizona State University and vice president of the school’s chapter of Students of Life, said she switched from Republican to independent after the Dobbs ruling because she was upset that some Republicans moderated their stances. Still, she said she intends to vote for Trump this fall because he is more sympathetic to the anti-abortion movement.
“If the Democrats tomorrow decided that they were going to be pro-life completely and more so than the Republican candidates,†she said, “then I would vote Democrat.â€
“For those candidates who hope that the election is more about abortion than other issues, sharing a ballot with one of these reproductive rights measures is a huge benefit,†Hall said.
In a Montana race that could be crucial to determining whether Democrats keep control of the U.S. Senate, incumbent Jon Tester, a Democrat who supports abortion rights, is in a tight race against Republican Tim Sheehy, who criticized the ballot measure.
There are also measures on the ballot in Nevada and Arizona, presidential battleground states where control of the state government is split between the parties.
Arizona State Sen. Eva Burch, a Democrat from Mesa, said abortion was a key to her victory in the competitive district two years ago and could be again this year.
in a legislative floor speech earlier this year that she was getting an abortion because her pregnancy was no longer viable. Her speech came just before the that a Civil War-era abortion ban could apply. The Legislature before enforcement could begin.
The campaign of her Republican opponent, Robert Scantlebury, declined to speak about the ballot measure.
Arizona is home to one the most competitive congressional districts in the nation: an area along the U.S-Mexico border where first-term Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani faces a rematch with Democrat Kirsten Engel.
In a debate, Ciscomani, who immigrated from Mexico as a child, said immigration is the top issue. It, too, is the . He didn’t respond to a request for an interview.
Engel helped gather signatures to get the abortion question on the ballot. “So many voters practically grabbed those clipboards out of our hands to sign the initiative,†she said.
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20 photos of reproductive rights protests from the age of Roe up until now
20 photos of reproductive rights protests from the age of Roe up until now
Aug. 26, 1970: Women's Strike for Equality in NYC
Nov. 20, 1970: Pro-choice demonstration in Washington D.C.
March 8, 1975: International Women's Day
June 18, 1979: Pro-choice rally in Boston
Aug. 10, 1980: People's Convention in NYC
July 9, 1989: Rally against anti-abortion violence
July 4, 1989: California rally attracts Roe v. Wade attorney, plaintiff
Nov. 12, 1989: Molly Yard speaks
April 5, 1992: March for Women's Lives
Jan. 18, 2002: Reminding justices to uphold Roe
April 25, 2004: March For Women's Lives 1 million+ people strong
March 2, 2016: Toe-to-toe at Supreme Court
Jan. 21, 2017: Making HERstory
May 21, 2019: US rallies protest new, restrictive abortion laws
May 11, 2022: 'Never again!'
June 24, 2022: Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade
June 27, 2022: Return to repressive policy
Jan. 22, 2023: Women's March marks 50th anniversary of Roe v. Wade
Charlotte, North Carolina (CNN) — Larissa Miller spent the early years of her life steeped in evangelical communities.
Abortion rights advocates stand outside the Jackson Women’s Health Organization clinic on July 7, 2022, in Jackson, Miss., and attempt to shout down a group of abortion opponents.
Arizona abortion-rights supporters gather for a news conference July 3 prior to delivering more than 800,000 petition signatures to the state Capitol in Phoenix to get an abortion rights question on the November ballot.