Happy Wednesday,
Post-Dispatch sports columnist Ben Frederickson here. Just a quick note to alert you to a change in the formatting of my weekly newsletter. I'm shifting away from the weekly Tuesday online chats, so re-running the greatest hits from that chat in this newsletter is no longer an option. I still hope to answer any questions readers have for me. I'll do that here in this newsletter in mailbag style as they come in, and will also have more freedom and flexibility to bounce around to other topics and ideas. This week's question will be answered below. Thanks, and please don't be shy about sending in any questions or comments you want to see tackled. Have a great rest of your week!Â
Got a question? Email me here (bfrederickson@post-dispatch.com) or find me on X (formerly known as Twitter) at and hashtag your question with #BF5.
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Those of us who pressed pause before taking and running with the talking point the Cardinals were selling about Steven Matz entering this season look correct for hesitating. After seven strong starts to close out a 2023 season that had nothing on the line, the spin on Matz was that he was the reason the Cardinals didn’t need another new starter after Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. Anyone who suggested Matz and the Cardinals might both be better off with him moving to the bullpen permanently was scoffed at. Well, after two strong but short starts into this season, Matz has over his last four starts allowed 20 runs in 17 innings. Opponents are slashing .368/.430/.556 against him over the last 86 batters faced. And now he’s dealing with a back issue, per Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol.
The Cardinals' refusal to repurpose Matz as a reliever to maximize his four-year, $44 million contract continues to put the rotation in a risky spot. It’s happened again. A total of 137 major leaguers have started at least the same number of games as Matz since he joined the Cardinals entering the 2022 season. Only seven of them have covered fewer innings than Matz’s 180.2. His ERA in those starts is now 4.58.
It doesn’t add up, and it didn’t entering the season.
Did you know there are more former Cardinals (two) in MLB’s top-15 for on-base plus slugging percentage than there are current Cardinals in the top-30? Both are outfielders. Marcell Ozuna ranks tied for second with a 1.036 OPS. Adolis Garcia checks in 15th with an OPS of .932. Meanwhile Cardinals have baseball’s lowest outfield OPS (.566) so far this season. Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson isn't back yet. Victor Scott and Jordan Walker got sent back down. Man.
Let’s head to the still-too-early standings. How about some good Cardinals news for a change? The Cardinals are no longer in last place! Thank you, Pittsburgh Pirates, losers of three straight. No Craig Counsell, no problem. The first-place Brewers are 18-11 and 11-6 against teams with a winning record.
Congratulations to Mizzou men’s basketball coaching legend Norm Stewart, who is headed the Hall of Famous Missourians. Question: Why wasn’t he in there earlier?
Since I wrote this column about Eli Drinkwitz’s big NFL Draft and how it could boost recruiting, he’s added another commitment, this time from Missouri wine country. Here’s Eli Hoff with more. And here’s my column from CoMo on the re-introduction of new Tigers athletics director Laird Veatch. And in case you missed it, here’s my column on the Blues’ head coaching search. #BringBackChief.
Got a question or comment for me? Let me know and I'll answer it here.
This week's spotlight goes to ... Morris, via email.
It seems to me that there has been a greater number of passed balls and wild pitches since catchers started catching with one knee on the ground. I know catchers are doing this in order to get the low strike, but it seems to me they are losing mobility to block balls in the dirt. I'm curious as to when this trend started and if there has been an increase in passed balls and wild pitches since then?
BenFred: Great question. First, I'd say it's going to be impossible to say any change in data for passed balls and wild pitches can be tied directly to catcher positioning. That's because pitchers are throwing harder than ever before and with more movement on their pitches than ever before. Pitchers are harder to catch than ever before. Second, the data will surprise you. It surprised me. I was prepared to make the case that the modern game values that low-strike framing so much it's willing to sacrifice some more balls getting behind catchers. But that's not what the numbers show. Catchers did indeed start adopting the trend in order to steal that low strike. It speaks to how valued pitch framing is these days. But what the numbers show, and , is that the percentage of passed balls and wild pitches has actually decreased since the one-knee down trend has popularized at the major league level. He found that the combined percentage of passed balls and wild pitches on balls in the dirt is actually on the decline. It was below 12 percent in 2022 and 2023. It was 12 percent or higher from 2015-19, before the trend really caught on. So, while it looks a little awkward compared to the traditional crouch, the big-picture view suggests the trend is effective, especially when you factor in the uptick in improved pitch framing the approach helps, which also seems to be justified by the numbers in this article. Thanks for writing. I learned something by looking into this.