COLUMBIA, Mo. — If you’re into the idea of the college basketball offseason as a kind of math problem, Missouri presents a unique equation to solve.
What do you get when you combine a seventh-ranked class of incoming freshmen with a group of transfer portal additions that are also ranked seventh in the nation?
Basic addition suggests the number 14 should be in the solution somewhere — perhaps the number of Southeastern Conference wins that those newcomers will provide? Tennessee won the regular-season title with that many. Multiplication offers up the number 49 — far too many games to win in a college season, so maybe field-goal percentage? Kentucky led the conference by shooting 49.5% from the floor last season.
Regardless of whether there’s addition, multiplication or something far more math-anxiety-inducing involved, Mizzou’s offseason acquisitions equate to cause for optimism — especially if you look at the recruiting services that grade the freshmen as a top-five bunch.
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The Tigers' fifth transfer of the class is former South Carolina center Josh Gray, who picked MU out of the portal on Sunday. He’s not a stat sheet-filling center but one who can play a valuable supporting role to gel with the four other players on the floor, serving as a veteran connector in a room of young frontcourt players.
The positional capabilities of Missouri’s incoming transfers rather uniquely give the program a well-rounded lineup.
Former Iowa point guard Tony Perkins can pass, score and defend. Former Northern Kentucky guard Marques Warrick is a score-first backcourt partner. UT-Martin wing Jacob Crews is a versatile forward — he can shoot, impact the boards and even do a little bit of ball-handling. Duke transfer Mark Mitchell is the centerpiece of the class, scoring efficiently with the potential to be the focal point of MU’s system. And Gray, a 7-footer, has the size, strength and experience to control the area around the rim against SEC-caliber centers.
Getting those five roles filled was essential to coach Dennis Gates’ plan for the offseason. He said as much earlier in the portal window.
But to stick with the math metaphor, improving the Missouri roster over the past couple of months wasn’t just a matter of adding — there had to be some subtracting, too.
Analysis of Mizzou’s transfer portal activity that factors in the outgoing players, too, makes for an interesting lens that might well be more indicative of how much Gates has improved his roster.
That means counting the losses of guard John Tonje to Wisconsin, center Jordan Butler to South Carolina, forward Jesus Carralero Martin to Texas-San Antonio, guard Curt Lewis to Eastern Tennessee, center Mabor Majak to Coastal Carolina and guard Kaleb Brown to a school he has yet to pick.
Missouri’s net activity in the transfer portal ranked fifth in the nation, per statistician Evan Miyakawa’s metrics. Given that he tabs the Tigers’ incoming transfer class as the seventh-best, the numbers seem to support the notion that players who have left the program were replaced by upgrades.
Latest transfer portal rankings at based on overall transfer activity (incomings + outgoings):
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya)
The only schools ranked higher than Mizzou in overall transfer activity are St. John’s, Vanderbilt, Louisville and Indiana. The Commodores and Cardinals both underwent coaching changes this offseason, so their rosters have seen the kind of complete turnover that’s now commonplace when a change in program leadership occurs.
So among programs experiencing more of a traditional offseason, the Tigers rank third.
Miyakawa’s metric, though, requires one caveat pertinent to MU in particular: It valued highly Missouri’s transfers from last offseason. A year ago, the Tigers were fourth in overall transfer activity, tailing Florida, California and West Virginia.
Waiving considerations of that spring’s losses, Mizzou’s incoming class sat at No. 6. It included some players who left after only one season in Columbia, like Tonje, Carralero Martin and Lewis as well as center Connor Vanover, who didn’t find a consistent role as the frontcourt weapon the Tigers thought he could be.
There was still value from that class, though. Guard Tamar Bates wound up a valuable secondary scorer who could shoot remarkably well and is in line to be a core piece to next season’s team. Guard Caleb Grill was MU’s leading rebounder before a season-ending wrist injury and found ways to impact the game defensively without having time to let his jumper settle in.
That context is important, considering Mizzou will likely need solid contributions from this cycle’s incoming transfers — Perkins, Mitchell and Gray in particular — to contend for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. A top-five net performance in trolling the portal doesn’t necessarily indicate an influx of top-tier talent. And any personnel rankings, whether from the portal or high school recruiting, are predictive — not perfect.
The reality is that recruiting class rankings and portal-tracking metrics like Miyakawa’s suggest Gates has found some talent through both pipelines. There will be hits and there will be misses in both. The factor that will actually determine what top seven plus top seven adds up to is both groups’ abilities to mesh.