COLUMBIA, Mo. — With daylight and humidity in a lockstep September decline, Missouri’s football schedule is ramping up in the opposite direction.
The No. 9 Tigers (1-0) face Buffalo (1-0) at 6 p.m. Saturday in a game they’re clearly expected to win. The Bulls of the Mid-American Conference mark an uptick in quality compared to Football Championship Subdivision program Murray State, the season-opening blood donor, but they’re not particularly close to the level of competition Mizzou will see later in the season.
What Buffalo’s status as the opening act for MU’s next two games against better teams represents, though, is a week-by-week incline in the strength of opposing teams. Just look at the quarterback position.
The next three signal-callers Missouri will play are all mobile quarterbacks to some degree.
While he was the starter at SEMO, Buffalo’s CJ Ogbonna ran the ball 94 times in the 2021 season for 357 yards. Last year, his first with the Bulls, Ogbonna tucked and ran 51 times for 214 yards — used as a novelty, based on a meager 21 passing attempts.
Boston College, which plays Sept. 14 at Mizzou, brings an even more prolific runner: Thomas Castellanos ran for 1,113 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. While thumping Florida State in the Eagles’ season opener, Castellanos ran 14 times for 73 yards and a score.
When Vanderbilt visits Columbia on Sept. 21, it will bring Diego Pavia as its starting quarterback. As New Mexico State’s starter last season, he ran for 928 yards and seven touchdowns. Pavia’s debut for the Commodores last weekend saw him keep the ball himself 26 times — while throwing only 16 passes — for 104 yards and a score.
There will be other degrees of mobile quarterbacks further down Missouri’s schedule, too, like Alabama’s Jalen Milroe and Auburn’s Payton Thorne.
Mizzou linebacker Khalil Jacobs (29) celebrates a sacking Murray State Racers quarterback Jayden Johannsen (7) in the first quarter action in the Tigers’ season opener on Thursday, Aug. 29, at Faurot Field.
QBs who were looking to tuck the ball and run challenged Mizzou last season. Jayden Daniels — yes, the Heisman Trophy winner, which is relevant context and some level of excuse — had 130 rushing yards against MU. While Missouri probably considered this a sign of victory rather than a flaw, Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton III was the Vols’ leading rusher. When Florida brought run-first quarterback Max Brown into a close game, he caused some chaos.
If containing mobile quarterbacks is a priority for the Tigers’ defense, the next three weeks will test it. It’s a legitimate possible takeaway from another Mizzou game against a lesser program — not that MU is admitting the dynamic.
“My anticipation is that it’s going to be a dogfight, and we’re going to have to prepare that way,†coach Eli Drinkwitz said.
Even with that attitude, Missouri’s starters had a short night against Murray State. If the Tigers approach a five-touchdown lead in the second half against Buffalo, as the spread suggests, something similar could play out.
Drinkwitz expects Mizzou’s first-teamers “to play the whole game,†he said. “I didn’t have any plan (to pull them from the Murray State game). I mean, I don’t know what the opponent’s going to do. The opponent has a say in everything that we do, so I didn’t go into the game — we have a plan to win, and until the game is in hand, our starters are going to play.â€
What constitutes the game being in hand, then, will dictate how long the likes of Brady Cook and Luther Burden III are in the game — and whether intriguing young players like running back Kewan Lacy and edge rusher Williams Nwaneri get extended run-outs once again.
That a lopsided result is expected against Buffalo didn’t prevent the game from selling out, but it does quell some of the buzz around the matchup — at least, compared to the excitement that a Power Four or SEC opponent might bring.
These early-season beatdowns are common across college football. More than a few SEC teams played shortened quarters in the second half of their Week 1 games because results were out of hand by halftime. There’s only so much that coach-speak can do to mask the realities of these lopsided affairs.
“My take on it is two-fold,†Drinkwitz said. “One, with the ability of the portal to take top-tier talent from lower classes, lower divisions, I think you’re seeing some of that result. Some of the schools that in the past would have developed some of those players no longer have those guys. They’re playing up at different schools.
“And then I think the next thing you’re seeing is the need for us, as coaches, to see as many guys play as possible as long as possible,†he continued. “I saw where (Mississippi) Coach (Lane) Kiffin talked about that he didn’t even consider reducing the quarters, and I’m with him 100%. We gotta have our guys play and we’ve got to get as many quality reps because that’s how you develop. I think you’re seeing guys who need to let their twos and threes play — and play at a high level.â€
Drinkwitz also noted that not every game turned into the expected blowouts. He alluded to a “game out west†being close, likely a subtle reference to No. 7 Oregon’s narrow escape against FCS Idaho.
So when it comes to the Tigers and Bulls playing Saturday evening, Mizzou will enjoy a talent advantage that should allow for a comfortable win with a margin for error as it works against a mobile quarterback. And while Drinkwitz says it isn’t projected ahead of time, some of Missouri’s depth players might get more valuable game reps, too.
“There’s no master plan,†Drinkwitz said. “There’s a plan to win the game when the game’s in doubt.â€
