COLUMBIA, Mo. — Unlock the doors and power up the neon sign: The transfer portal is back open.
As the day after Selection Sunday, Monday marked another important milestone on the college basketball calendar. Players can now freely enter the transfer portal and open themselves to offers from other schools.
The window for entrants remains open through May 1. Players only need to have filed the requisite paperwork to enter the portal by that point and can take longer than the 45-day period to find their new program.
It’s the only transfer window for basketball, making it a particularly crucial time for Missouri, which will need some retooling to recover from the 19 consecutive losses that ended its campaign and marked the program’s first winless conference slate since 1907-08.
The nature of the transfer portal means it’s difficult to predict which players will choose to return. But the next iteration of Mizzou men’s basketball looks likely to be built around guard Tamar Bates and plenty of young players.
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There could be some experience coming back if guards John Tonje and Caleb Grill use their available medical waivers for another season in black and gold.
Based on the size of MU’s incoming freshman class — which is five-deep — and four players leaving due to expired eligibility, it doesn’t seem like coach Dennis Gates will have much room for a transfer portal overhaul. Somewhere between two and four transfer portal adds seems like a plausible estimate, with the potential for more if a larger than expected number of players leave Mizzou or Gates decides to expand his roster through NIL-boosted walk-ons — a mechanism that adds players to the program beyond the 13 scholarship spots.
In terms of replacing those leaving Columbia, one of the top priorities in the portal will be finding a capable ball-handling point guard.
Anthony Robinson II, as a freshman, played behind Sean East II and Nick Honor in the point guard room. Robinson played roughly 40% of the minutes that went to the two veterans, who both ran out of eligibility.
Giving the keys to the offense to Robinson might be expecting a bit too much of a jump for the rising sophomore. While he was on the floor this season, his usage rate was just 17.3%, according to CBB Analytics, meaning there wasn’t a whole lot of offense flowing through him. East’s usage, for reference, was 25.8%.
In terms of individual plays, Robinson ran fewer than two dozen pick and rolls, according to Synergy’s tracking, limiting some of the live chances he got at operating a core basketball tactic, and he drove the ball on just 29 occasions.
That’s not to say that Robinson can’t or won’t see an expanded role next season. But the Tigers need a player like East to run the offense — someone who can create off the dribble, minimize turnovers, pick shots wisely and find other players.
East, with a usage that was in the 88th percentile nationally, maintained a positive assist-to-turnover ratio that was good for the top half of players. His true shooting percentage — a metric that takes into account the value of 3-pointers and free throws to give a better measure of shooting efficiency — was the second-highest of any Southeastern Conference player who carried the same degree of usage.
Finding someone who brings similar traits will bring some continued stability to Mizzou’s offense and help accentuate Bates’ skill as a scorer and secondary playmaker.
It’s easy for those who watched the Tigers struggle this season to suggest frontcourt upgrades are in order — particularly in the rebounding realm.
Only 11 teams grabbed fewer than Mizzou’s 21.8 defensive rebounds per game — and none are programs close to the caliber MU would like itself to be. Across both offensive and defensive boards, opponents grabbed 6.1 more rebounds than the Tigers did each game.
That’s not a recipe for success in the SEC. But unlocking production out of bigs isn’t just a matter of rebounding. MU already has one of the conference’s best rebounders on the roster: Aidan Shaw’s 19.5% of defensive rebounds secured is sixth among SEC players, when filtering for games just against other conference opponents.
Some sort of offensive production would probably help. After the core of East, Bates, Honor and forward Noah Carter, no Mizzou player averaged more than Connor Vanover’s 4.2 points per game.
Gates’ offense flourishes when it has an able playmaker in the post, particularly someone who can operate at the elbow. Kobe Brown, of course, succeeded as a hub, and the Tigers had hoped that Carter could play that role this season. A well-rounded big who can rebound, score on the interior and facilitate some actions from the high post would help with next year’s roster.
Finally, like any team, Missouri could use some shooters. East and Bates both finished north of 40% on jump shots. Honor landed at 35%. Nobody else cracked the 30% threshold.
A “3 and D†wing who could play without the ball on offense, knock down shots and defend soundly could also help the Tigers. Honor settled into that position at times on offense, particularly late in the season, but his size was a limiting factor.
Bringing in competitive shooters would help Gates’ bunch reach the goal he’d set before the 2023-24 season of shooting the most 3s of any team in the country. A veteran ball-handler could get the ball in the hands of the most dangerous players — and keep it from going to the other team. And a strong big could help maintain half-court flow and salvage some of the disparity on the glass.
But the transfer portal has only just begun to grind its gears — and the churn will linger through the next several weeks.