Usually when a Cardinals baseball season begins to wind down before it really ends, a familiar process plays out.
It’s going to take more than a comeback series win against Milwaukee to stop the progression.
First comes the fuming and frustration. Next up is some form of acceptance And then? Most want to turn the page.
Fans begin to want to talk about what the team needs to get back on track. They want to daydream about desired trade targets and debate potential free-agent options. They want to set the next season’s rotation, lineup and roster, and they want to do it more than watch games that mean little.
I don’t think it’s going to be so easy to look ahead this time.
Fans are not as interested in roster-shaping talk as they are in hearing the DeWitt family discuss its view of the organization’s baseball decision makers.
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Until then, and without a long run of miraculous Cardinals wins to change the mood, the fuming/frustration phase appears set to last a while.
There is one exception, though.
It’s not fun to write this.
But the Cardinals do need to figure out what they are going to do at first base moving forward.
Bringing back pending free agent Paul Goldschmidt shouldn’t be the answer.
It should be as obvious as it is uncomfortable. There’s no need for the Cardinals to proclaim it publicly. The only real action they will need to take is no action at all. When this season is done, the Cardinals should sincerely thank Goldschmidt for his years of commitment and turn forward the first-base page.
Goldschmidt is likely a future Hall of Famer. He’s a first-class competitor, and he spent a long run not just as one of the most complete and respected hitters in the National League but also as a repeated Gold Glove winner whose work on the infield belongs up there with some of the best. Teammates have learned countless things from Goldschmidt about being a pro. Fans have loved to support someone who is both a stand-up player and person.
Again, it’s no fun to write this.
But now is a time for the Cardinals to acknowledge some uncomfortable truths. There are a lot of them this season that sting. One is that Goldschmidt has hit a wall — hard.
Goldschmidt’s strikeouts in close, late moments during this Brewers series — one whiffing, one watching — were telling moments. So was his absence from the lineup in Thursday’s win against Milwaukee. He’s in the midst of a career-worst season.
It’s not pretty. You know this. I won’t go on and on about the numbers, but you do have to see some of these stats.
Goldschmidt’s batting average (.228), on-base percentage (.287) and slugging percentage (.386) are all career lows and significantly lower than the 2024 average NL batting line: .246/.315/.402. He is striking out more often and walking less often than any other point in his major league career.
He has been neutralized by right-handed pitchers, against whom he’s slashing .206/.260/.363. His performance with runners in scoring position has cratered; he’s now slashing .168/.266/.230 in those pivotal moments. And against power pitchers, which Baseball Reference defines as those who are in the top third of the league in strikeouts plus walks, Goldschmidt’s batting line reads .162/.217/.303. Of the 58 major leaguers who have totaled 500 or more plate appearances so far this season, Goldschmidt’s on-base plus slugging percentage of .673 ranks ... 53rd.
OK, enough of that. Anyone watching a frustrated Goldschmidt search and struggle this season understands it’s been very bad.
Sometimes great hitters have slump seasons. Is that what this is? I wish. I hope. But it’s hard to make the case, I’m afraid. It seems more and more like this is a compounding downward curve, the part where things really escalate. That means the decline was happening before the plummet, too.
Remember when Goldschmidt’s scorching bat drastically cooled at the very end of his 2022 MVP season? It was hard to explain at the time, even he agreed as he accepted the hardware he earned. If you start there, September 2022, and examine the body of work between there and now, well, here are the numbers:
Between September 2022 and now, Goldschmidt made 1,317 plate appearances, which is 18th-most during this span. His on-base percentage (.331) doesn’t crack the list’s top 50 of 110 major leaguers to tally that many plate appearances since then. His average (.250) doesn’t crack the top 70. His slugging percentage (.417) doesn’t crack the top 75.
For an MVP winner, it’s a jarring and rapid fall. And undeniable. Fixable? Maybe, but so far, no lasting answers. And this isn’t a small sample size. Or a young hitter.
Goldschmidt has a tough decision to make after this 14th major league season. Can he find a way to alter this sustained and now accelerating trend going into what would be his age-37 season? Is he willing to take what the market will pay him? Is he ready to retire instead?
These are big, hard questions for a player to answer and ones not usually wrestled until there’s a chance to sit and think.
The Cardinals can’t overthink. They always envisioned Goldschmidt finishing his career in their uniform, but if he’s determined to keep going, they need to let go of that vision and chart a new course.
Alec Burleson can play first, though not as well as defensively as Goldschmidt. Few can match Goldschmidt’s defense, period. Luken Baker can play the position. Brendan Donovan moonlights there. Jordan Walker, who knows, could be able to play the position one day down the line. Free agency and trades will present other options, some obvious and others hidden until teams make their own roster calls. Opportunities are endless.
The games that could await a Cardinals team knocked out of even hopeful contention could offer increased chances to experiment. Embrace them.
The Cardinals were smart to pause the momentum that had built toward a Goldschmidt contract extension this past offseason. They used their minds over their hearts. They’ll need to do it again when it’s time to figure out what first base looks like in 2025.