The Ghost of Cardinals Past must be rattling its 91-link (one for each loss last season) chain.
Hopefully the current Cardinals hear it and take heed.
So far this young season the Cardinals have both talked the talk and walked the walk regarding their stated commitment to returning to and maintaining strong defensive play.
Last season’s defensive debacle is being flushed away daily with the kind of sharp play fans expect. It’s not just more fun to watch. It’s how this team is best built to play. And when a pitching staff that has more of a pitch-to-contact lean than the modern game prefers manages to keep the ball on the right side of the outfield wall, it’s mostly working.
It’s too early to read deep into advanced defensive metrics. The sample size isn’t big enough. But already there have been multiple examples of how an offseason commitment to regaining a defensive edge is paying dividends.
People are also reading…
Catchers Willson Contreras and Ivan Herrera both look much improved behind the plate in how they are framing pitches and stealing strikes. Slimmed-down Nolan Gorman and Alec Burleson have been solid at second base and corner outfield, respectively. By committing to playing the best center-field defense available, the Cardinals are canvassing outfield grass better — yes, even after Victor Scott II’s uncharacteristic error in Wednesday’s loss to the Phillies.
Speaking of errors, the Cardinals started their current road trip as one of nine MLB teams with five or fewer of them. Eight teams had 10 or more. The Cardinals have turned an NL-leading 15 double plays. Cutoff men are being hit. Sloppy baserunners are being caught. There has been some of the sensational, like Masyn Winn web gems, and plenty of the just plain solid. It’s working, and it can work even better moving forward if the pitchers start doing a better job of keeping the ball in the ballpark.
Quietly, Cardinals pitchers as of Friday had allowed an NL-worst 18 home runs. A whopping 47 percent of the runs allowed by the Cardinals so far this season have come on homers the defense had no chance of stopping. Give this defense more chances to make plays, and it should do more damage.
Even with the home-run problem, the Cardinals have allowed more than five runs just three times, and two of those examples came against the powerhouse Dodgers in the season-opening series. The Cardinals are allowing 4.23 runs per game, which is just below the MLB average of 4.54. With key starter Sonny Gray now healthy, it should drop lower.
I bring all of this up because, perhaps you have heard, this Cardinals offense is struggling. Lineup pillars Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are scuffling. Lars Nootbaar, healed from his broken ribs, is back from his season-opening stint on the injured list. Already fans’ wheels are understandably turning, trying to come up with the most potent lineup moving forward. Can’t blame them.
What shouldn’t be sacrificed is the defensive advantage the Cardinals have rediscovered.
Nootbaar needs to start, but he doesn’t have to start in center. He’s adequate there, but both Scott and Michael Siani are closer to elite. Until Tommy Edman’s wrist is ready to swing away, and it could still be a while still, the Cardinals should go with either Scott or Siani in center every game. I’d vote Scott, because he has the long-term upside, but his defense and baserunning can’t show signs of carryover from his struggles at the plate for that approach to hold up. Let’s see how he rebounds from his worst game yet.
Burleson, who is averaging .256 with a .293 on-base percentage and a .308 slugging percentage, looks like the player most likely in line to experience decreased at-bats for now. The good news is, he’s not the type to be affected negatively by that. Some guys have less of a chance of performing when called upon if called upon less often. That’s not the case with Burleson.
I know no one wants to hear it, and the Cardinals are probably in no hurry to discuss it publicly, but Jordan Walker (.481 OPS) is not exactly locking the door behind him. He’s a continued defensive project and he’s drilling the ball into the ground again. The promising 21-year-old slugger is averaging .162 with a .238 on-base percentage and a .243 slugging percentage. The Cardinals insist Walker couldn’t adjust his swing on the fly at the major league level last season, claiming he needed the brief minor league tune-up to get right. If that was the case, maybe he would benefit from another? It’s easier to ignore if he’s a defensive plus. He’s not. It’s easier to ignore if the lineup is humming along elsewhere. It’s not. Something to think about.
Chipping away at the strong-again defense isn’t going to be what saves this offense. Playing Nootbaar in center to maximize room for more threatening bats in the lineup will make little difference if Goldschmidt and Arenado don’t thump. Last season the Cardinals came to regret chasing offense at the expense of their defense. Current circumstances will suggest going down that path again. Resistance is critical. They said they learned their lesson. Time to find out if that’s true.
If this lineup’s biggest bats don’t come around, this season is going nowhere special. If they do come around, and the defense remains sharp, then the Cardinals could exceed this season’s modest expectations. That’s the way to play it now, even if it’s unpopular.