If during this series front office members of the Cardinals and Mariners cross paths at Busch Stadium, there will be common territory to discuss.
Such as, how did this happen?
The Cardinals returned home with a 1.3 percent chance to make the playoffs, per the postseason projection math found at . They are experiencing the unforgiving reality of getting too far behind the eight ball. They have played better lately, good enough to take some series against good teams, but it’s all looking like too little too late as the teams ahead of them in the National League wild-card jostling refuse — at least so far — to set themselves on fire. At Busch, the only true intrigue is Attendance Limbo. How low can it go?
And then there’s Seattle. This series was supposed to be the seventh of seven consecutive ones the Cardinals played against teams headed to the postseason, but the Mariners lately look like a team that also will miss. Their downturn is jarring, considering they have one of if not the best pitching staffs in baseball. But their offense stinks. They’re 24-31 since July. Their chance to make the postseason at the time of Friday’s first pitch, per FanGraphs, was 9.2 percent.
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Maybe there’s something more uplifting the two team’s decision makers could discuss. Something more relevant for the future instead of the depressing present. Logan Gilbert.
The former first-round pick pitches against the Cardinals on Saturday. He would look great pitching for the Cardinals next season, wouldn’t he?
This past offseason, when the Cardinals were desperate for pitching and the Mariners had it in abundance, there was a lot of dot-connecting between Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and Mariners baseball operations leader Jerry Dipoto, who the Seattle Times recently reported will indeed be back for 2025. The Cardinals wound up not making a rotation-based trade before spring training, instead opting to fill their needs through the free-agent signings of veterans Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson.
The Mariners held on to Gilbert, and despite the recent downturn of the season he’s been one of the things to go quite right.
The 27-year-old right-hander has a 3.19 ERA over 28 starts and 177.2 innings pitched. It’s criminal his record is 7-10. Opponents are averaging .199 against him along with a career-low .585 on-base plus slugging percentage. The fourth-year major leaguer was a first-time All-Star. It won’t be his last.
Since he debuted as a 24-year-old in 2021 Gilbert can be found in remarkable territory among durable starters with 100-plus starts beneath his belt during this time frame.
Such as . . .
Fourth in strikeout-to-walk ratio: 4.63
12th in innings pitched: 673.1
12th in quality starts: 61
13th in strikeouts: 672
13th in average game score: 55.8
15th in ERA: 3.61
Normally, it would be insane to even wonder if a team would consider trading an emerging ace.
It’s never insane to wonder if Dipoto will trade anyone.
He loves to trade, and the Mariners have a crazy pitching surplus.
Their rotation leads baseball with a 3.38 starter ERA.
Their bullpen ERA of 3.81 ranks fifth in the American League and 10th in MLB.
There was even wondering if Dipoto was quietly shopping Gilbert at this season’s trade deadline, with the Times reporting multiple position players with youth and cost control could be a good starting place in such talks.
The Mariners can ask for a lot. A ton. Gilbert isn’t a free agent until 2028.
“You hear things,†Gilbert told the Times at the time.
It’s Seattle and Dipoto, and the Mariners are still desperate for offense, so there will be more things to hear this offseason. Especially if the Mariners do indeed miss the postseason.
Before the Cardinals set targets on free-agent hopefuls and potential trade additions, they owe it to their fans to tell them what their plan is moving forward.
Wheels already are in motion, as evidenced by Friday’s press-release announcement of longtime director of player development Gary LaRocque’s retirement.
Are the Cardinals going to shake up their front office and make a pledge to return to the draft-and-develop model they have not stopped talking about but have stopped producing evidence of in recent years?
Are they going to take an intentional step back to try to move forward in a more sustainable way?
Or, are they going to try once again to fix a team on the fly and get back to the postseason sooner rather than later?
One thing we do know. If they’re going to try to compete, they’re going to need pitching. Again.
Sonny Gray isn’t an ace and Miles Mikolas is weathering his worst season in a Cardinals uniform. Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn have not made it obvious that their contract options for 2025 should be picked up. Erick Fedde, in a small sample size, hasn’t been as effective for the Cardinals as he was for the White Sox before arriving via trade deadline. Andre Pallante has been encouraging and there is some interesting depth, but there is a need for help at the top. The Cardinals entering Friday’s game had dropped to 23rd in baseball in rotation ERA (4.51) and could be found smack dab in the middle of the pack in quality starts (51), the stat they hoped this veteran bunch would crush.
The Cardinals have so much to sort out in the weeks and months ahead.
Who replaces LaRocque, whose department lost its touch?
Who should be calling the shots for this front office moving forward?
What gets a loyal and dedicated fan base back on the same page as this organization?
All of these big, heavy questions have to be answered before it’s time to build a roster, but a roster with Gilbert — if the Mariners are silly enough to trade him — guarantees fans will want to watch at least every fifth day.
Until the Cardinals can get back to developing top-of-the-rotation answers, they have to find them from the outside, or accept admitting what it means to go without.