If both programs are playing well or something close to it, this is the time of year when a popular hypothetical college hoops question gets passed around.
SLU vs. Mizzou. Billikens against Tigers. Who wins?
Unfortunately, a series that should happen annually but hasn’t since 2001 doesn’t appear to be headed our way soon. But that’s just fine this season because no one is having the hypothetical debate. Supporters of the Billikens and the Tigers are too busy grimacing.
One of the two miserable seasons can be stomached better because of optimism about what could be coming. The other, not so much. And I say this as someone who wants to see both teams succeed. Trust me, there is enough good college basketball to go around.
Mizzou fans feeling their first stirring of doubts about Dennis Gates shouldn’t be shouted down. The system Gates believes in is fun and exciting when the steals come and the 3-pointers fall, but it’s getting chewed up and spit out by the SEC this season. This roster doesn’t run Gates’ system as well as the previous version did on its way to an impressive 25-win debut that included the program’s first NCAA Tournament win in 13 years. Reality, checked.
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Gates hit on his transfer bets last season and missed on too many this season. These Tigers don’t do the things they are supposed to be great at (creating steals, scoring in transition, splashing 3-pointers) well enough and are very bad at the things (rebounding, rebounding, rebounding) we figured they would struggle with. I can’t recall watching many teams that can lose one game when a player scores 36 points, then turn around and lose another in which it held an opponent to less than 29% shooting from the field. I also can’t recall seeing a team give up this many third- and even fourth-chance points.
A case can be made that injuries to transfers John Tonje and Caleb Grill fouled things up more than most realize. I’ll buy some of that but not all, as neither looked like world beaters before they were sidelined. If Gates had landed impact transfers Matthew Cleveland or Caleb Love in the transfer portal, maybe things look different now.
That’s the bad.
Here’s the good:
Gates has proven to recruits across the country that he can take a junior college point guard like Sean East II and turn him into a legitimate SEC star. Transfer guard Tamar Bates has a year of eligibility left and is emerging as a dangerous scoring threat. Sophomore Aidan Shaw and freshmen Trent Pierce and Jordan Butler have flashed at times — and should get a lot more chances to do so if Gates is a realist about getting the most out of what’s left of this season.
And then there’s the recruiting.
Not just committed but signed to scholarship agreements is an incoming freshman class that is considered a consensus top-five group nationally by scouting services. Gates has another four-star prospect, Columbia local Aaron Rowe, committed for his 2025 class. In the transfer-crazed era, this momentum on the prep scene is especially encouraging.
If Rowe stays true, he will become the eighth four-star prospect Gates has plucked from the prep ranks since getting his gig. Four-stars tend to take programs places if programs can develop them and keep them out of the transfer portal. The recruiting is important evidence Gates won’t have to play the transfer-portal guessing game to build the spine of his roster in seasons to come. He should soon be able to use the portal to supplement instead of stabilize. Check out the builds and skills of the incoming players. They are athletic and long. They play the kind of game this team and Gates’ preferred style of play need. Good signs. Needed signs.
Which leads us to the Billikens. What’s the optimistic view at SLU?
I ask honestly because I have had a hard time seeing it since Travis Ford received a rushed vote of confidence late last season.
Seven seasons of SLU’s Ford era proved there is a hard ceiling — one NCAA Tournament loss — and a respectable floor of no brutal seasons. Now the floor is threatening to fall all the way through in his eighth season. Fans are dividing into two factions: one supporting Ford and one calling for his firing. It’s tense, as evidenced by Ford clearing the air about his son using anonymous social media accounts to defend the coach against critics.
I go back to when Ford was introduced in 2016. If that happy crowd at Chaifetz Arena was told it would get a .585 winning percentage but no NCAA Tournament wins and just one ticket to the big dance, would it be happy? Don’t think so. Not for SLU’s handsome investment. Ford is the highest-paid coach in the Atlantic 10.
No NCAA Tournament appearance since 2019. No Associated Press Top 25 ranking since 2021. Chaifetz Arena’s atmosphere, one of the better ones in college basketball when times are good, is suffering. Even as the A-10 has weakened, the Billikens can now be found dead last in the conference in points scored per game (72.5), points allowed per game (77.1) and opponent field-goal percentage allowed (45.2). A once-strong defense has become atrocious.
Perhaps things look different if Sincere Parker was healthy all season, if the NCAA didn’t interfere with transfer Bradley Ezewiro’s launch and if both players had been available all season to help Gibson Jimerson carry the load. There’s a chance all three could be back next season, so there is that. But is help on the way? Not obviously so. Three-star prospect Ja’Quavis Williford is the lone 2024 signee so far, and there are no other publicly known commitments pledged. Ford’s increasing focus on the international scene hasn’t produced much production. Name, image and likeness coffers need reasons to expand, not shrink. It’s a cold, hard reality of the business of the modern college game.
During a season like this, you want to give fans tangible reasons a rough patch is nearing an end. Mizzou can. It’s a lot harder sell at SLU, where signs of mounting stress continue to outscore optimism.