If you’re still holding out hope for the Cardinals, that would make Sunday the biggest start of Sonny Gray’s career with this team. The Cardinals are hanging by a thread. They need a stellar performance from their best starter against the dominant Dodgers.
Or, if you have punted on the possibility of the Cardinals making some miraculous run to the postseason, then you have no problem zooming out and looking at Gray’s first season impression.
Either way, now seems like a good time to check in on Gray.
When he signed a three-year, $75 million deal with the Cardinals this offseason, Gray’s addition prompted applause but also a debate.
Was he now the Cardinals’ ace?
Cases were made for and against. It was a lively discussion, largely because if you ask a handful of people what makes an ace, you can get five different answers.
People are also reading…
Here’s how I see it. An ace is the starting pitcher you want on the mound if the world ends with a loss. And you feel pretty good about it, at least as good as you can considering, you know, the world is on the line. That second part of my personal definition is important. Because every team would have to pick somebody in the hypothetical scenario, but not every team would feel good about their pick.
And here’s how I saw the preseason debate about Gray. Silly. Because we were about to find out. He was being given the contract and the chance to prove he’s an ace. It was a formal invitation from the Cardinals to go take it.
There are still some starts for Gray to make this season, but there could be fewer meaningful ones moving forward if the Cardinals continue to fade from the pack of postseason pursuers. The math is unforgiving. FanGraphs’ projection system assigned the Cardinals a 4.2 percent shot entering Saturday’s game.
Gray’s body of work has been great at times (1.16 ERA through four starts in April); good at others (3.64 ERA through 11 starts between May and June) and not so good as of late (5.86 ERA through seven starts since July).
Great: Gray’s first five starts. He blitzed through them with a 0.89 ERA while totaling 38 strikeouts and allowing just one home run. The Cardinals won four of his first five games, which later became seven of his first nine. Fans were thrilled. For good reason. Gray looked like their ace.
Great: Gray at home. He’s got a 2.66 home ERA through 12 starts. That’s ninth-best in baseball this season among major leaguers with 10-plus home starts. Busch and Gray go together. Ace-level home split here.
Great: Gray’s stayed healthy. Other than the hamstring scare that caused him to start a little later than he’s hoped, he’s been reliable in terms of taking the ball. You can’t lead a rotation from the injured list. Gray stiff-armed the early scare and didn’t look back.
Good: Gray has 10 quality starts, tied for second-most among Cardinals. Would like it to be higher, but a double-digit in mid-August is not bad.
Good: Gray has either improved or mirrored the .225 opponent average and .273 opponent on-base percentage that he held hitters to last season while finishing second in American League Cy Young Award voting for the Twins.
Good: Compared to that career-best 2023 season in Minnesota, Gray’s strikeout rate has increased by 6.5 percentage points and his walk rate has decreased by 1.4 percentage points.
Not So Good: Homers. Gray’s surrendered more than twice as many this season (17) than he did in Minnesota last year (eight). Gray’s opponents are slugging .395 against him. If that holds, it will be the highest opponent SLG he’s allowed since the final season of his disappointing stint with the Yankees in 2018 (.419).
Not So Good: Five of Gray’s last eight starts. Three quality starts in this span can’t help the numbers enough. Since allowing three earned runs in just 4.1 innings in a loss against the Reds on June 29, Gray has over his last eight starts authored a 5.89 ERA while opponents average .280 and slug .524 against him. He’s allowed more earned runs in his last eight starts (31) than he surrendered over his first 14 starts of the season.
Not So Good: Gray’s had more starts last five or fewer innings (nine) than he’s had starts last seven innings or longer (eight). I didn’t mistake the 34-year-old Gray for a 200-inning arm. He’s only done it twice, and not since 2015, but I did think he’d pitch a little deeper into games a little more often, especially down the stretch. Here’s why. Last season for the Twins, Gray pitched six innings or more in 60 percent of his starts, and between the start of July and the Twins clinching their place in the postseason, he went six innings or more 13 of the 15 times he took the mound. I expected that kind of Gray this summer. The Cardinals haven’t had that kind of Gray this summer.
I don’t think there’s any debate that Gray is this team’s best starter. I also don’t think there has been concrete evidence he’s this team’s ace. In fact, so far, there has been more evidence the Cardinals should seriously consider the high price of trading for one or signing an ace this offseason.
The Cardinals entered Saturday’s game against the Dodgers with a rotation ERA of 4.58. That ranked 24th in baseball and fourth-worst in the National League. The starters have been average (15th) at producing quality starts (44) but they have trended in the wrong direction as summer deepens.
That includes Gray, who on Sunday receives another ace invitation, this time against Clayton Kershaw. The world won’t end with a loss. But in terms of relevance, the season could.