If Missouri football fans and followers were told entering coach Eli Drinkwitz’s pivotal fourth season that a Citrus Bowl appearance would be the absolute worst-case scenario, most would have grabbed their warm-weather gear and started shopping for Florida-bound plane tickets with glee.
But as good seasons become great seasons, then trend toward something even better than that, expectations evolve.
Because of what Drinkwitz and his 10-win team have accomplished, it would be a shocking snub if the Tigers, No. 9 in the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings, were not selected as one of the seven Power Five programs not playing for a national championship that still get to represent their universities in a New Year’s Six bowl game.
The Tigers don’t have an appearance in their conference championship game to help add one last line to their resume, which may not be a bad thing, but it is certainly in the black-and-gold faithful’s nature to expect the worst from any committee — whether it’s the BCS, the College Football Playoff or the NCAA — until proven wrong, officially.
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It wasn’t that long ago, after all, when the 2007 Tigers went from beating Kansas to earn a Big 12 North title, to watching Mark Mangino’s Jayhawks take what was expected to be Mizzou’s Orange Bowl invite. And don’t forget, Illinois, another team the Tigers beat head to head that season, made the Rose Bowl. Mizzou got the Cotton Bowl, one that was not as highly thought of then as it as now that it’s in the College Football Playoff’s New Year’s Six mix.
That was the bonkers BCS. The CFP system invites fewer shenanigans. Still, nothing is guaranteed. Not yet. (Check out 2020, when No. 11 Indiana got the Outback Bowl while No. 13 North Carolina secured a spot in the bigger, better Orange Bowl.)
Here’s what Mizzou fans should be wishing into existence as college football’s championship weekend goes down:
Cheer for chalk
With conference championship wins, Georgia (against Alabama), Michigan (against Iowa), Washington (against Oregon) and Florida State (against Louisville) should be locks to secure the four College Football Playoff spots that will pit the winners of the Rose and Sugar bowls against one another in the national championship.
Florida State, playing without injured starting quarterback Jordan Travis, is no longer one of the best teams in the country, everybody but Florida State fans seems to understand. But the Seminoles are undefeated like the Bulldogs, Wolverines and Huskies, and they did manage to win with their backup quarterback, Tate Rodemaker, against Florida last time out. The CFP committee is probably hoping Florida State loses to Louisville because it would take away the discussion about how and why Florida State doesn’t belong in the top four after Travis’ injury, something that, while true, would be next to impossible for the committee to declare if Florida State becomes an undefeated Power Five conference champion.
But Mizzou should be hoping Florida State beats Louisville for two reasons:
• If Louisville, which is currently ranked No. 14 in the CFP, wins, then the Cardinals would be guaranteed a New Year’s Six bowl spot as a Power Five champion, and Florida State, ranked fourth, would likely get one as well. Of the non-semifinal New Year’s Six bowls this season, one (Orange Bowl) has a contractually obligated spot for the ACC. If that’s Louisville with the Seminoles in the four-team playoff, no problem. If both Florida State and Louisville are in non-semifinal New Year’s Six games, that’s one fewer New Year’s Six spot for someone else.
• The other reason it could be good for Florida State to get into the four-team playoff? The Seminoles will probably get wrecked if they do, stirring the what-if about how a team that didn’t make the four-team cut (a team like Mizzou) might have done if called upon instead.
Also, beware Iowa, ranked No. 16 in the CFP.
Michigan is coming off an emotionally exhausting win against Ohio State. Iowa has one of the nation’s best defenses and will relish the role of spoiler. If Iowa stuns the Wolverines and the world, Iowa would have to be in the New Year’s Six mix.
Anything that surprisingly adds to the projected New Year’s Six crowd could be bad news for Mizzou.
Boo Tulane
Not literally. The Fighting Willie Fritzes won’t hear you if you do. But not only would a bowl assignment against Tulane or any Group of Five opponent be a bit of a bummer for Mizzou, a Tulane loss would perhaps hurt a team that could be in the mix to challenge Mizzou for a New Year’s Six spot. Tulane lost to Ole Miss 37-20 in the second week of the season at home. That turned out to be a pretty good win for two-loss Ole Miss. The Rebels’ only losses, like Mizzou’s, were to great teams, but one was a blowout. One was to Alabama by 14 points on the road. The other was to Georgia by 35 points on the road.
Anything that dents Ole Miss in the eyes of the CFP committee should be good news for Mizzou, which has been ranked higher than Ole Miss for weeks. Tulane losing to SMU in the AAC championship game would be another small win because it would be another little knock against Ole Miss.
No offense to Tulane, SMU or Liberty, but it would be a bummer if Mizzou gets pitted against the mandatory pick from the Group of Five pool. Those games are pretty much unwinnable in terms of perception. It would be best for Mizzou to face either incoming SEC foes (and former Big 12 rivals) Texas or Oklahoma or a big Big Ten brand (Ohio State or Penn State).
Think positive
The CFP committee has reiterated its favorable opinion of the Tigers by keeping them at No. 9 since the Week 11 rankings were revealed. A very narrow win against Florida changed nothing before the Tigers pounded Arkansas. If the committee was out to get Mizzou, it could have used the Florida win, a nail-biter at home, to dock the Tigers for a lack of style points. That didn’t happen. If the committee is going to trapdoor the Tigers, it showed no foreshadowing.
Last piece of advice?
Sit tight and wait for Sunday’s official confirmation. Mizzou will not get early word on where it’s headed and who it’s playing against. Mizzou officials will be watching TV to find out Sunday, just like the rest of us.