LOS ANGELES — Whatever you do, don’t look.
If you wondered at some point during his masterful performance how the Dodgers got Bobby Miller, it’s best to just flush the topic from your mind.
The imposing right-hander who turned his Friday night start against the Cardinals into an early 25th birthday celebration cannot be conveniently shrugged off as another big spend.
Miller? He’s cheap. For a while, too. Unless, that is, the Dodgers signed him to a 10-year extension full of deferred money while my plane was flying home from Los Angeles. (They probably should.)
Sure, those Dodgers players Cardinals opening-day starter Miles Mikolas referenced before this series when he made his “checkbook baseball†comments have been playing great out of the gate. The MVP trio of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani are dominating at the top of the Dodgers lineup. Opening-day Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow, who was signed to a big extension after he was traded from the Rays, set a defiant tone in game one. Even Teoscar Hernandez, added on a one-year deal this offseason, has piled on Cardinals pitching.
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But the Dodgers’ big spending can’t explain Miller, who was the most damaging Dodger so far in this series. Miller is still making pre-arbitration money as a second-year major leaguer. He wasn’t a top-10 draft pick, either. Not even top-20. No, the Dodgers got him No. 29 overall out of Louisville in 2020, with the very last pick in the pandemic-scrambled first round.
Argh.
Hey, the Cardinals had a good draft in 2020. They took now right-field starter Jordan Walker 21st overall, ahead of Miller. They took now starting shortstop Masyn Winn 54th overall. Promising pitching prospect Tink Hence was a competitive balance round selection and season-opening designated hitter Alec Burleson was added via compensation pick. That’s a good position-player haul.
Still, it was tough to watch Miller carving up the Cardinals in Friday night’s 6-3 Dodgers win and not feel discouraged once more about how an organization that touts a draft-and-develop mentality, one that for years stayed ahead of the competition because of its rock-solid confidence in producing homegrown pitching, is still suffering the side effects of a ruptured pitching pipeline. It’s under repair, we are told. How long until there’s indisputable evidence at the major league level?
Where is the Cardinals’ version of Bobby Miller? He can’t get here soon enough.
Until Sonny Gray’s hamstring barked, the new free-agent addition was supposed to headline a Cardinals rotation that included just one arm drafted and developed by the team. That arm belonged to Lance Lynn, who returned to his old flock for his age-36 season after spending more time away from the Cardinals than he did with them, and proving during large parts of that time pitching for other teams that the Cardinals should not have let him go in the first place. It was only Gray’s injury that truly opened the door for first-round pick Zack Thompson, selected No. 19 overall out of Kentucky in 2019. Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz and Kyle Gibson were all added from the outside. The same is true for the Cardinals’ last two playoff starters: Jose Quintana and Mikolas.
Thompson pitched better Friday than his line indicated. The Dodgers punished his biggest mistakes for three home runs. They’re going to do that to lots of pitchers. But even if you’re super high on the 26-year-old Thompson, who has earned this chance to stick as a starter after walking the starter/reliever line, Miller has reached a much different place in Los Angeles.
His first start of his second major league season featured six scoreless, dominant innings. He held the Cardinals to two hits, walked just one and crammed 11 strikeouts into 21 batters faced. He’s now 12-4 with a 3.59 ERA in his first 23 major league starts. His MLB strikeout percentage is 25 percent and he’s suppressed opponents’ on-base plus slugging percentage to .631.
“Miller was really damn good today,†Cardinals manager Oli Marmol said after the Cardinals’ rally against Dodgers relievers fell short. “He’s throwing 100 with a slider at 93, 94 at times. He comes out of the game, and our at-bats looked pretty good after that.â€
Let’s zoom out a bit.
Thompson’s secured shot at sticking in the rotation meant Matthew Liberatore, acquired in the regrettable Randy Arozarena trade, is now a reliever. Traded-away Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen have a Cy Young Award (Alcantara) and three All-Star appearances (two for Alcantara and one for Gallen) between them while pitching for other teams. Jordan Hicks had a 2.65 ERA this spring for the Giants, who have committed to making the former hard-throwing Cardinals reliever a starter. He was slated to start against the Padres on Saturday night. The Cardinals bet so much of their 2023 season on the idea Jack Flaherty would finally take the invitation to be an ace and run with it. Didn’t happen. Now he’s in Detroit. Dakota Hudson and Austin Gomber are Rockies. Jake Woodford is in Class-AAA, pitching for the White Sox.
Many marks have been missed.
The Cardinals’ hopes are still high for draft-and-develop targets like Hence, Michael McGreevy and Cooper Hjerpe, who have all been delayed some by injuries. Recently acquired additions from other organizations like Tekoah Roby and Sem Robberse are expected to climb after last season’s trade-deadline selloff was used to fill glaring holes. This isn’t on one specific person. The team — drafting, developing, coaching — has to get better, or it will have to be significantly changed.
Knowing something needs fixing and figuring out how to solve it are not always the same thing. The Dodgers are not just outspending the Cardinals. They are beating them at identifying, securing and developing elite cost-controlled talent for the rotation.
It’s a baseball superpower the Cardinals had, lost and now must find again.
There is no guarantee they will.