Lance Lynn still is Lance Lynn — grizzled and gritty, a bit quirky and quick-witted, and as fiery as his flame-thrown fastballs.
But Lance Lynn no longer is Lance Lynn — a Cy Young candidate from 2019-21, he’s now an average pitcher with an obscene home run rate, fixin’ for a fixing in what will be his age 37 season.
He profiles a lot, dare we say, like a starter on the 2023 Cardinals staff (Jordan Montgomery notwithstanding).
And the fear is he’ll be the weak link on a 2024 staff that has one exclamation point and four question marks.
The Cardinals hope to get a full season out of Lynn because he’s often accountable for 180-plus innings. If only to preserve the bullpen, unlike last year, the Cards need starters to eat innings.
But at what cost will it be to have Lynn pitch said innings?
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Now, even a pessimist can’t think that Lynn will allow 44 home runs again (and four more in his lone postseason start). But all told, Lynn’s ERA was 5.73 last year (with the White Sox and Dodgers). And it was 3.99 the year prior. With the league average coming in at 100, his ERA+ in 2023 was 77 — and in 2022, it was 99.
So even if he improves vastly regarding runs allowed, one thinks he’ll still be average at best.
Yes, many rotations have average fifth starters. But the Cardinals need to maximize each roster role in the comeback campaign of 2024. Also, just how close to a fifth-starter level will other starters Steven Matz, Kyle Gibson and Miles Mikolas be? Like Lynn, those guys classify as “question marks†because they have the ability for quality 2024s but are coming off uneven 2023 seasons (the “exclamation point,†of course, is Sonny Gray, second in the 2023 American League Cy Young voting).
For the first time since his winter signing, Lynn met with the media at the Cardinals Winter Warm-up event. So I had to ask him what he learned about himself as a pitcher during 2023.
“When you go through a year like last year, you figure out what doesn’t work,†said Lynn, who first pitched for ºüÀêÊÓƵ from 2011-17, including an All-Star appearance in 2012. “But through trial and error, you’re going to figure out some things that you can take into the next season and be successful with. I was able to develop some things, pitch-wise, that I have never had in my career. There were times when it got me in trouble, but also helped me learn when to use it, when not to use it. ...
“When you get slapped in the face, you figure out pretty quick what doesn’t work.â€
That sure seemed to be his cutter, a version of a fastball with less velocity but more movement. According to pitch value data from FanGraphs, Lynn’s cutter was a negative pitch for him in 2023. Per Baseball Savant, 2023 opponents had a .506 slugging percentage against his cutter. Lynn, famously, throws different versions of fastballs. But the cutter sure can really backfire on a hurler.
“Last year, pitch-mix-wise, some of them didn’t click with the way that I naturally go about attacking,†said Lynn, who splashed some of his distinctive personality in his 20-minute media session. “You’re trying to create a pitch and it makes you lose something that you know makes you successful. So I think the No. 1 thing was kind of getting back to what makes me who I am — and then figuring out how the new pitches I was experimenting with last year can fit in.â€
In other words, things didn’t go great when he was on the White Sox. Same for Lucas Giolito, the esteemed pitcher who also allowed 40-plus homers.
When Lynn joined Los Angeles, he immediately went on a stretch of strong starts. Wearing Dodger blue, he really only had two terrible starts of his 11 — both against playoff-bound teams. But then in the playoffs, he allowed the quartet of homers to Arizona in his disastrous start.
But with his LA performances overall, you could say the issue in 2023 was whatever went into his Chicago game-planning. That said, his ERA+ with the Dodgers still was 100 — in other words, the league average.
Since Lynn rejoined the Cardinals, management has said it has confidence that pitching coach Dusty Blake can help revitalize Lynn. But that’s not a given. Blake himself needs to prove himself in a bounce-back season of 2024.
Now, it’s fair to share that there are positives about having Lynn on the ’24 Cards. He’s a veteran, he’s seldom injured and he’s a workhorse. He’ll be pitching in a bigger home ballpark than last year. And he’ll be reunited with old teammates from good old days, be it Matt Carpenter or new bench coach Daniel Descalso.
“I think Lance, first and foremost, is a great competitor, right?†Descalso asked at Winter Warm-up. “I’m sure you guys have all seen him on the mound, striking out a hitter and he lets out a roar of some type. He’s the guy that wants the ball and is going to go out and compete with what he knows how to do. He’s going to throw a lot of fastballs; he’s going attack hitters. I think even a couple years ago, he had a really nice season. Last year, he struggled a little bit, but I think we have some adjustments to make with him.
“But just his presence on the mound, his presence in the clubhouse, is going to be huge positive for us. I think he’s going to hold guys to a high standard.â€
Lynn will hold himself to the highest of standards. He’ll work hard to be the workhorse than made him millions.
But it’s hard to get too excited about Lance Lynn starts in 2024.