Crime is about to go up.
Be it from burglars in Pittsburgh to larcenists in Los Angeles, Tampa Bay raiders to Kansas City thieves.
Not only will it be harder for the Cardinals to score without Willson Contreras in the lineup, it’ll also be easier for opponents to score without Willson Contreras behind the plate.
This season, in just 17 games played, backup catcher Ivan Herrera has allowed 17 stolen bases. And not once has Herrera thrown out a runner.
It might be baseball’s version of death by 1,000 cuts. Simple singles will quietly turn into doubles. And from there, it will take opponents one fewer hit to get one additional run. It’s actually kind of frightening for fans to think about.
Now, for cellar-dwelling Ƶ, scoring is the seminal problem. With a light-hitting offense — when they even get hits at all — the Cardinals must muster as many 90-feet advancements as possible to possibly win.
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But with Herrera catching, the opponents will have an easier time snatching 90-feet advancements of their own.
Contreras, who was scheduled for surgery Wednesday on his fractured arm, is out for the foreseeable future.
And again: 0 for 17. Sounds like a Nolan Gorman offensive stretch or something, but it’s Herrera’s success rate behind the plate.
“The (glove-to-hand) exchange and consistency of where he’s missing (his throws) is what you’re trying to improve,” Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Wednesday prior to the postponement of the Mets-Cards game.
Consider this: There are 20 catchers who have allowed 17 or more steals this season. Only two have yet to throw out a base runner: Herrera (0 for 17 in 145⅔ innings) and the Mets’ Omar Narvaez, who is a preposterous 0 for 30 in just 116 innings played.
And of the 20 catchers who have allowed 17 or more steals, only three have played fewer innings than Herrera.
The Cards are 3-7 in games Herrera has allowed a stolen base. That includes the close and frustrating loss at San Diego when Herrera was particularly terrible behind the plate, allowing a trio of steals.
And for some perspective, the Mets are 6-7 in games Narvaez allowed a steal. And in 2023, the Mets were 6-19 in games when Narvaez allowed a steal.
Asked how Herrera can better himself, Marmol said: “There’s arm-strengthening stuff, as far as just being able to get on a long-toss program and actually gain something there. But his footwork, exchange and being able to consistently throw and give himself the best shot on the right side of the bag is what he’s working on. A lot of his misses are on that side. And that’s something that’s technical — you can improve that.”
Clearly there is much room for improvement, yet not a lot of room to work considering all that goes into the regular preparation for each day’s game. The one-time “Yadier heir” isn’t going to turn into Molina suddenly when the Cards’ plane lands in Milwaukee.
The goal, of course, is to make sure he improves to where he’s not a liability.
Overall on defense, Herrera ranks 70th out of 74 catchers in defensive runs saved (minus-4) per Sports Info Solutions. And his defensive run value is in just the 11th percentile per Baseball Savant.
“I’ve actually seen the most growth in his preparation,” Marmol said. “He receives well, he’s continuing to work on his blocking and throwing, but the biggest improvement has been in how he’s preparing for the game. And that’s allowed him to slow the game down while he’s calling it and kind of navigating a lineup and working with the pitcher.”
Much has already been made about losing Contreras’ bat. The dude was headed for the All-Star Game. Herrera has shown flashes of lightning with his swing — he’s in the 84th percentile for barreled balls — but he’s hitting .232 with a .653 on-base plus slugging percentage.
One good thing is that rookie Cardinal catcher Pedro Pages is a high-level defensive player. So you can, like the Cardinals were going to on Wednesday, start Pages at catcher and Herrera at designated hitter. But that means you’d have to have Pages (career .763 OPS in the minors) take multiple major league at-bats during a game — this during a time when the Cardinals need as much offense as possible.
But Marmol already showed some shrewdness the last time Pages was up with Ƶ. Late in a game in which Contreras wasn’t catching, Marmol subbed in Pages for Herrera behind the plate. The reason? To reduce steals.
“It’s very important,” Marmol said Wednesday. “I mean, depending on who you’re playing, there are some teams that run a lot more than others, and you have to defend against that no different than when you make a defensive replacement in center field. If you have a catcher whose strength is that — and while you’re carrying three catchers, it’s easier to do, because you still have protection — you defend against it. And we were in a part of a lineup where I felt like (our opponent’s) way of getting back into this game would be by taking the 90 feet. So we made the move and kept that from potentially happening.”