It’s late August, and Mike Shildt is managing a probable playoff team this week at Busch Stadium.
A sentence from a half-decade ago remains true today.
The bespectacled skipper will return to Busch for the first time as a manager Monday — his Padres take on the Cardinals, the organization he led to the playoffs in 2019, 2020 and 2021.
And yes, it’s a return to face the organization that fired Shildt after 2021 when he clashed with the front office — and had only a year left on his contract.
It was flabbergasting at the time. More understandable now, as Shildt’s protege, friend and replacement steered ºüÀêÊÓƵ to the playoffs the very next year. And perhaps I’m in the minority, but I don’t heap the majority of the blame for 2023 and 2024 on Oliver Marmol.
But with Shildty back in town, the reality is this: The guy can manage. And his work with San Diego in his first year has confirmed his aptitude for navigating a big league season and a big league clubhouse.
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Consider all the changes to the Padres. After 2023, San Diego lost Juan Soto, Josh Hader and Blake Snell, that season’s Cy Young winner. The payroll dropped from $256 million (third in baseball) to $167 million (15th), per Spotrac.
Then consider one of the franchise’s multiple-time All-Stars (Xander Bogaerts) has a .689 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) this year, while another (Manny Machado) is at .763.
(Come to think of it, this sounds like the 2024 Cardinals.)
Oh, and Fernando Tatis Jr. has been out since June 22, and starter Yu Darvish hasn’t pitched since May 29 (both guys could return this month).
Yet San Diego is 74-58 — and in the second National League wild-card spot.
Since the All-Star break, when the Padres were 50-49, San Diego has a 24-9 record. Shildt has pushed all the right buttons with his bullpen — though it didn’t hurt that his front office got him some extra arms. And in the National League, his club has the second-highest OPS (.788) and second-lowest ERA (3.42) since the break.
This isn’t a crazy proclamation, but Shildt deserves consideration for NL Manager of the Year (though if the Diamondbacks, currently the first wild-card team, actually do catch the Dodgers in their division, then yeah, it should go to Torey Lovullo).
Shildt and his club have benefited from marquee acquisitions such as Dylan Cease but also from some surprise ascensions. Michael King only had 19 career starts in his four years with the Yankees, but in 2024, he has a 3.14 ERA and 25 starts for San Diego. And Jurickson Profar, age 31, is finally playing the way many thought he would at 21. One of the top prospects of his time, Profar has a .857 OPS, enhanced both from his slugging and his crazy-high walk rate.
Oh, and their Jordan Walker is panning out.
Jackson Merrill, who is 21, has an OPS right around .800. The outfielder has 18 homers and 71 RBIs, in addition to 13 steals so far.
As for the Cardinals, it sure seems like this season is already over, though credit Marmol’s guys for winning the past two series against good clubs (Brewers and Twins). The Cards are back to .500 (65-65) and five games out of the final wild-card spot (which will be won by one of five teams). So the odds are low that ºüÀêÊÓƵ will play in October, but you know what could really, really help the chances? Winning three or even four of four against Shildt’s Padres.
One surprise storyline is the recent rise of Nolan Arenado, who is getting on base like the old days, when Shildt was his manager. With two hits in Sunday’s win against the Twins, Arenado has now reached base safely in 24 consecutive games — and the third baseman has a hit in 21 of them.Paul Goldschmidt sure looks cooked, but Arenado, three years younger at 33, has suddenly seemed resuscitated. His swings are crisper. And while he isn’t homering much, he’s still hitting — in the past 30 games, Arenado has a .292 batting average with an .813 OPS (for the season, his OPS is .729, compared with a career OPS of .860).
But the Cardinals’ biggest problem (OK, one of their big problems) is a Padres conquest — hitting with runners in scoring position. The Padres have baseball’s third-highest average and 12th-highest OPS with RISP; the Cards are third-worst and second-worst, respectively. Of course, the injury to star catcher Willson Contreras hurts all facets of the ºüÀêÊÓƵ offense.
As for Monday’s reunion, here’s thinking the ºüÀêÊÓƵ fans will give a loud, loud ovation to Shildt. I mean, they even cheered Tampa Bay’s Dylan Carlson, who was struggling woefully with the Cards just a week prior. So the fans will surely applaud a fellow who won manager of the year honors in 2019 and made the playoffs in his past three seasons as a manager.
And it sure looks like Shildt’s streak will extend to four.