JUPITER, Fla. — Hello from Florida, where the birds have flocked and the Birds are flocking. Cardinals spring training starts this week. For Monday, the forecast is partly sunny and in the mid-80s, which, actually, is also the forecast for the Cardinals themselves.
To me, the Cardinals look like a team that’ll win around 86 games in 2024. Maybe that’s enough to best the Cubs and Reds and win the National League Central. Or, as we’ve seen in recent MLB seasons, that win total could be enough for one of the wild-card spots in the expanded playoffs. Yes, of course, 86 is better than 71. But it’s also likely lower than the win total of a slew of National League pennant contenders — as the Cardinals contend to win their first pennant in more than a decade.
But what the 86 prediction implies is an inconsistency — there is some sunny optimism with this club but some gray areas, too.
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And so, even though Ƶ signed star starter Sonny Gray, the 2024 Cardinals will fare sometimes sunny, other times gray.
Let’s try to predict the climate.
Sunny: The Cardinals offense will be better than some sites predict — and those sites predict good things. Naturally, manager Oli Marmol must put the right pieces in the right places, but this lineup with strength should lengthen down the line.
I think the Cardinals will eclipse the 200-homer mark yet again, as Nolan Gorman will top the team with 35 round-trippers. Consider this: Of National League players with 450 plate appearances or more, Gorman had the ninth-highest percentage of homers per fly balls (26.1). Yet he finished 19th in total homers (27) because, in part, of his injury and only 464 plate appearances. If the kid can stay healthy, he will be a force (shoot, he was a force last year with a .805 OPS — and that was with a .439 OPS in June).
And he’s only 23!
Meanwhile, more of Brendan Donovan will make for a better Ƶ Cardinals. Jordan Walker profiles to be a 20 homers-20 steals guy. And one has to think that Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado will hit more like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. “Goldy” statistically still swatted baseballs hard last year, even if many became outs. And Arenado had a slow start and an even slower finish, as the nightmare season sure seemed to wear on him.
And in the middle of all of this Cardinals firepower will be Willson Contreras, who had a .959 OPS in the second half last season.
Gray: Cardinals starting pitchers two through five are all question marks. Yes, yes, these guys have a track record to eat innings. And yes, yes, each guy has posted at least one great season within recent seasons. But in a year the Cardinals need to reestablish their residence among baseball’s top franchises, the Cards are doing so with four 30-something question marks.
Oh, and it’s not like they have some rising ace prospect in the minors who’s close to being big-league-ready. In this crucial season, like last season, the likes of Matthew Liberatore, Drew Rom and Zack Thompson could vie for spot starts.
Sunny: But they do have Sonny. Gray, 34, finished second last year in the voting for American League Cy Young — and from 2019-23, his ERA is 3.22. He’s an ace who yearns to win in October (he’s been to the playoffs only three times in his 11 big league seasons).
He is the right pitcher for the right season to join the Ƶ Cardinals.
Gray: But what will his bullpen be like? Yes, I’m calling this a gray area, though I’m also pointing out that the bullpen could very well prove sunny. It’s just that right now, entering spring, we don’t know who will earn some of the bullpen spots.
And some of the returners, notably Giovanny Gallegos, proved questionable last year. He finished with a 4.42 ERA and blew six saves — only eight NL players had more in 2023. And while JoJo Romero and John King were both great, they pitched in just 27 and 20 games respectively. And it’s a long season, as Gallegos can point out.
Sunny: The infield defense should be inspiring. For the first time in his career, Arenado didn’t win a Gold Glove — image how obsessively he must’ve worked out this winter to fine-tune his skills.
Masyn Winn will build a strong defensive resume— this masonry will lead to wins. At second base, Donovan has a Gold Glove reputation (though Gorman will also play some second). And over at first, Goldschmidt is coming off a year in which he tied for the Cardinals’ most defensive runs saved.
Gray: The outfield defense should be ... interesting. The right fielder, Walker, rated so poorly last season — one of the worst defenders in baseball. But his arm is so strong that there is upside. And he’s worked humbly and diligently with instructor Jose Oquendo and coach Willie McGee to improve. Walker will surely be a bit better — but he still doesn’t project great out there.
In left, Lars Nootbaar was pretty good (in the 70th to 80th percentiles in three key defensive categories on Baseball Savant), but still there were 44 outfielders with more defensive runs saved in 2023.
In center, of course, Tommy Edman brings Gold Glove ability to the position with historical prestige in Ƶ.
And so, here in Florida, spring training starts this week — pitchers and catchers officially report on Tuesday. And this is a critical spring, frankly, in the trajectory of this franchise, which has such a sunny history, but a gray recent history.