Since the birth of baseball divisions in 1969, every division champ in a full season didn’t have to play in a wild-card game or series … until 2022.
But yes, because of the expanded playoff field beginning in 2022, the Cardinals were the first National League division winner — again, in a full season — to play in a wild-card series.
And the Cards lost.
Thus, a division winner didn’t even get to play in what’s titled the National League Division Series.
Brutal.
But here in 2024, the expanded playoffs setup could be the difference-maker in this pivotal, pivotal season in Cardinals history.
Because from 2012 to 2021 (minus the pandemic season) there were only two wild-card teams in each league. They’d play each other in one game — and the winner would play the best division winner in the divisional round.
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Well, now a third wild-card team in each league makes the playoffs.
And the 2024 Cardinals could be that team this postseason.
Rob Manfred taketh away, Rob Manfred giveth, I suppose.
Now, for most of April, May and June, I didn’t think the Cards were a playoff team. But 32-18 since Mother’s Day changes the math. And because they’re doing this without slugging from multiple stars — and the fact that, yes, there’s now a third wild-card team — I can see these fellows playing in October.
On Sunday, the 47-42 Cards actually became the second wild-card team, a half-game ahead of San Diego (49-45). These clubs plus the Diamondbacks, Mets and Giants will be jostling for the final two wild-card spots all summer.
Incidentally, if the Cards get the third spot, they’d be the third “sixth-best†team to make the NL playoffs a full season, joining the 2022 Phillies and the 2023 Diamondbacks — both of whom fared particularly well in the postseason. Of course, it was those 2022 Phillies that extinguished the Cardinals — at Busch Stadium — and ultimately advanced to the World Series (and lost). And in 2023, the Diamondbacks (84-78) lost the tiebreaker to the Marlins (84-78) to become the third wild-card team ... and Arizona ultimately advanced to the World Series (and lost).
OK, so you can look at the 2024 Cardinals two ways.
One being — Hey, at least they’re in the playoff mix, considering how bad they were earlier in the year (such as nine games under .500 at one point).
The other being — This is the ºüÀêÊÓƵ Cardinals, darn it, and they shouldn’t be talking about third wild-card spots; they should be talking division title.
It’s fair to agree with both, though. And right now, it could be a lot worse. So it’ll be a fun ride — and has been, thanks to some unlikely storylines. The ones that stand out to me include:
The rise of Alec Burleson. He seldom strikes out (or even swings and misses, compared to league averages). And he belts baseballs — the 25-year-old leads qualified Cardinals in slugging percentage (.455) and OPS (.773). And his rocket for an arm might not be Jay Buhner-level, but he’s in the 78th percentile for arm strength per Baseball Savant.
Oh, and since June 22, no player in the NL has more RBI’s than Burleson (17).
The shutdown bullpen. It’s wild to think that Giovanny Gallegos has been bad and $5 million man Keynan Middleton has been injured, yet the Cards have the sixth-best bullpen ERA in baseball (3.43). On Sunday, MLB saves leader Ryan Helsley (31) was named to his second All-Star team. And JoJo Romero (26) and Andrew Kittredge (24) are first and third in holds, per .
Ryan Fernandez has been a brilliant addition — credit to the front office for nabbing the former Red Sox minor-leaguer. And so many other relievers have carved up batters and gobbled up innings to keep this season afloat and flowing.
Winning the close ones. Not only have the Cardinals played in the second-most “close†games (decided by three runs or fewer), but they also have won the most (38-25) and have the second-highest win percentage (.603). And of the past 11 one-run games, the Cards have won eight of them.
OK. There still are some very blaring storylines that show the Cardinals’ vulnerability this summer. For instance, they are negative in run differential. Right now, the Cards have MLB’s 12th-best winning percentage, yet are 22nd in run differential (minus-39). That stat often catches up to teams by the end of a season.
The Cards, as you’ve often read on these pages, aren’t getting much offense from Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman and, of course, minor-leaguer Jordan Walker (though the Nolans have heated up on this current trip).
And the Cardinals have baseball’s fifth-worst batting average with runners in scoring position. And the second-worst OPS.
But all that said, they are in the wild-card mix.
If anything, they should be buyers by the trade deadline and should be in competitive games into September. The season was salvaged and saved.
And the third wild-card spot could prove to be the difference.