The Cardinals are average, be it their earned-run average (4.12 and right at league average) or their batting average (.247 and a few ticks from the league average of .244) or, of course, their record, which is 60-58 and thus just two games above baseball’s classification of average.
The Cardinals are ordinary, and it’s going to take an extraordinary push to make the playoffs — and make hay in the playoffs. Sure, yes, they enter the week 1½ games out of the National League’s final wild-card spot. But if you look closely at it, the Cards really are only vying for that third and final wild-card slot — as one five teams with legit chances for that lone berth.
Meanwhile, the average OPS+ of a Major League Baseball hitter is 100. Well, the OPS+ of six key Cards range within 89 and 107 (Nolan Gorman, Paul Goldschmidt, Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan and Masyn Winn).
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And the average ERA+ of a pitcher this season is 101. Andre Pallante is at 101, Lance Lynn is 104, Kyle Gibson is 106. Ace Sonny Gray stand outs out at 116, while Miles Mikolas bottoms out at 80 (the good news for the team is that newcomer Erick Fedde is at 128 but has made just two starts for the Cardinals so far).
Some more average? Cards pitchers literally have the league average in WHIP (1.273). Cards hitters are the first group just below the league average in total bases. Also, the club is 16th in wOBA. Defensively, the Cardinals rank 15th out of 30 teams in Fangraphs’ defensive UZR rating, as well as 14th in base running.
So they’re middling in the middle in many marquee stat categories.
The Cards just can’t seem to get any streaks going — they haven’t even had a winning streak longer than two games since late June. You know who can? The Brewers. They just reeled off their third five-game winning streak since late May. The first three wins were in Atlanta — and the Brewers scored 34 total runs. Following Sunday’s streak-breaking loss at Cincinnati, the Brewers still found themselves 7½ games ahead of the second-place Cardinals, who had the day off.
The Cardinals and manager Oliver Marmol say the goal is to win the division title. Well, this average club is going to have to somehow play (w-a-a-a-a-y) above-average baseball to do so.
And one thing just demoralizing the Cardinals (and their fans) is the hitting with runners in scoring position. You’ve heard this song before — just felt the need to quickly belt it out again. With runners in scoring position, the Cards have the second-worst OPS in Major League Baseball (only the White Sox are worse). The Cards are tied for the fourth-most runners left on base. And they’re 21st in runs scored. Their offense is average as is — thus it’s even more painful that the times some offense is created, runs often aren’t.
OK, can Jordan Walker help?
At this point, it wouldn’t hurt to see. I say call him up. Give him some whacks.
The demoted 22-year-old went to Class AAA Memphis to rediscover his dominance by getting grounders off the ground. It has been, well, a process. But! Lately, Walker has been mashing baseballs.
Entering July 24, Walker had a .234 average and a .657 OPS.
But in the following 16 games through Sunday, he hit .343 — and slugged his tuchus off. Of his 23 hits, five were homers, six were doubles and one was a triple (so yeah, 11 singles and 12 extra-base hits). His batting average is up to .257 this year with a .747 OPS.
For Baseball Prospectus, analyst Jacob Edelman pointed out that Walker changed his stance on July 24, notably with a more-open front leg. And Walker is drilling homers of lengths such as 425 feet and 434 feet in just the past two days.
“What he is doing is very encouraging,†Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told the Post-Dispatch on Sunday. “We are excited with what he is doing. With regard to consistency, I would say seeing to what he has done is a good indication of where he is heading.â€
The Cardinals, of course, struggle hitting left-handed pitching. The outfielder Walker is a righty. And the outfielder Nootbaar, albeit who hits lefty, hasn’t been hitting much of anything of late. Maybe this promotion means the end of Brandon Crawford? Or possibly a demotion for Nolan Gorman (though, as mentioned in a recent column, his bat is still dangerous off the bench, even with some holes in it). Regardless of who is in the move, the Cards should make the move.
“Time will tell, but great to see his positive steps forward,†Mozeliak said.
On Monday, the Cards open a three-game series in Cincinnati.
Then, a gauntlet.
Dodgers at home.
Brewers at home.
Twins on the road.
Padres at home.
Yankees on the road.
Brewers on the road.
This is an extraordinary test for a team defining ordinary.