They have been the coldest team and the hottest team and now, 60 games into this pivotal year, the Cardinals are a lukewarm-to-actually-warm team, which is perhaps who the Cardinals really are — a good-not-great roster with expectations of greatness.
And that’s the thing. The Cardinals (29-31) are currently in the wild-card race. Right in it, which is exciting, especially because this team, on May 11, was 15-24. But let’s go back to offseason expectations. The 2024 Cardinals needed to be a pennant contender. Another year of missing the playoffs — or barely playing in the playoffs — wouldn’t cut it.
Yes, yes, anything can happen once you make the playoffs. We recall 2006. We recall 2011. We recall just last October, when the 84-win Diamondbacks knocked off the 100-win Dodgers en route to the World Series.
But the Cards, especially after 2023, owe more to their fans than to just squeak into the playoffs. Yet that sure seems like where we’re headed.
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Of course, there is still quite a bit of runway in the 2024 season. At least with the recent 12-3 run, the season was salvaged. And the next seven games are against the ridiculous Rockies and the sub.-500 Pirates. Fortunes can change quickly, as we’ve seen in just the past few weeks (after starting 15-24, the Cards went 12-3 ... but then, in the most recent six games, went 2-4). But the Cardinals, notably the offense and the maligned fifth-starter spot, must be more consistent.
The Cards’ run differential this year is minus-45, which is third-worst in the National League. The team on-base plus slugging percentage (.680) is fourth-worst in the NL. And their hitting with guys in scoring position is so obscene, it couldn’t make it in a family newspaper.
Here are five more thoughts about the state of the Cards:
1. Even if they make the playoffs — heck, even if they win the World Series — the Cardinals must reevaluate how they, well, evaluate. The minors are a mess, notably with the pitching. You’re telling me the sixth-best MLB-ready starter in the entire system is Andre Pallante?
Even after last year’s trade deadline, when the Cards added multiple pitching prospects, ºüÀêÊÓƵ’ system is still sub-par. In May, Fangraphs’ list of the Cards’ top prospects had just one Class AAA starting pitcher in the top 24 (Sem Robberse at No. 8). Maybe we’ll see some Sem soon.
Prospects Michael McGreevy (5.54 ERA) and Gordon Graceffo (4.42) were exciting names in the past, but one wonders if they’ll just end up being names from the past?
The pressure should be on everyone involved in development — naturally and notably on Gary LaRocque, the director of player development. And the ownership should also come under the microscope — they could spend more on all that goes into player development.
Because right now, this is unacceptable.
And the big league club, without depth beyond its first five starters, is losing games because of it.
2. I’m on record saying I didn’t think Lance Lynn would be good in 2024. And that I was skeptical about many of the ºüÀêÊÓƵ starters. Well, in the first 60 games, Lynn has a 3.23 ERA. Credit (yes, some credit) to John Mozeliak and the front office for hitting on free agents Lynn, Kyle Gibson and, of course, Sonny Gray (the big get of all the guys). And as seen in Wednesday’s win, Miles Mikolas has also rediscovered his swagger — it was his seventh strong start in his past eight outings.
And I believe — even if it had backfired — that it was smart of manager Oliver Marmol to pull Mikolas when he did Wednesday. Third time through the order can be brutal — and Yainer Diaz has been demolishing baseballs. Let the Cards’ seven-eight-nine guys be the seven-eight-nine guys. It worked.
As for Gray, who pitches Thursday, he has 77 strikeouts in 57 innings (remember, he started the season in the injured list). Of Major League Baseball pitchers with at least 50 innings thrown, Gray is tops with 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings.
First!
And here’s thinking he’ll remain in first place after facing Colorado on Thursday.
3. A loss Wednesday would’ve been brutal. Can’t get swept. Well, the victory continued a most intriguing win streak — that being in the last game of a series. The Cards have won five consecutive series finales. For the season, they’re now 7-13. And it was their first win in five tries during a road-trip finale.
4. These Dylan Carlson at-bats (when he actually even gets them) are hard to watch, especially considering the hype for him as a prospect. The 25-year-old is 6 for 46 this year (.130). All singles. And the switch-hitter is 1 for 18 as a left-handed hitter. What is the endgame here?
5. For all the analysis and dissecting we do of the ºüÀêÊÓƵ Cardinals, be it from bullpen matchups to expected weighted on-base average to rest days for position players, this year is really going to come down to this: Can Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado be Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado (especially with Willson Contreras injured and Jordan Walker in the minors)?
Goldy has been producing more often of late. But while Arenado is hitting some homers (three in his past seven games), he’s still not really hitting — his batting average in the past 25 games is .198.
And this is unofficial, but he’s got to be among the league leaders in pop-up outs that don’t make it to the outfield.
For the season, the future Hall of Fame third baseman has an OPS of just .682.
And even with the recent homers, his slugging percentage is still just .376. For perspective, the lowest it’s ever been in his career was .405 — his rookie year for the Rockies.