I came to Busch Stadium on Saturday to write about Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Gorman.
Oliver Marmol promptly filled up my reporter’s notebook.
“Listen,†the Cardinals manager bluntly said in his pregame media session, “if ‘Goldy’ and Gorman aren’t ‘Goldy’ and Gorman … we could sit here and the next question (might be) about shuffling the lineup, and listen, you can do all the shuffling you want, but at the end of the day, if those two guys aren’t in the middle of it, hitting doubles and homers …â€
Marmol paused and didn’t finish his thought.
“I’ll keep that to myself,†he finally said.
So, I’ll say it.
If Goldy and Gorman stink, the Cardinals’ offense will stink.
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And right now, Goldy and Gorman aren’t good.
And the Cardinals (9-12) have the fewest homers in the National League (13) … and the second-lowest batting average in the National League (.220).
In regards to “Goldy†and Gorman, the at-bats have been brutal. In Saturday’s 12-5 loss to the Brewers, Goldschmidt struck out twice and, with two runners in scoring position, had his bat broken on a swing that produced a 54 mph light looper to shortstop.
Now, the 2022 MVP had a statistically down 2023, sure — but advanced stats that account for exit velocity and expected results revealed that, overall, Goldschmidt’s 2023 swings were similar to those in 2022.
But in 2024? Sheesh. Goldschmidt’s swings sometimes look uncomfortable and unconfident. In Monday’s game, that was actually so bad, it was memorable. The right-handed slugger lunged, got under a slider and popped it up — caught in foul territory by the first baseman.
Where have you gone, Paul Goldschmidt? Cardinals Nation turns its lonely eyes to you (and Nolan Gorman).
The perennial All-Star Goldschmidt is hitting .173. He has an OPS (which is on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) of .492. For his career, his slugging percentage (.516) is higher than this year’s OPS.
“I think, first and foremost, (I) just take responsibility for how I’ve played — it hasn’t been good,†Goldschmidt told reporters after Friday night’s loss. “On a night like tonight where you have a chance to win the game, that’s, obviously, in the moment, frustrating. … We all want to help us win but when you’re hitting at the top or middle of the order, you can have a big effect on the game. I have had an effect. It’s just been a negative one from an offensive standpoint so far this year. No one hates it as much as me.â€
He is striking out a lot and seldom striking baseballs.
From 2012-2023, Goldschmidt never had a strikeout rate higher than 25.1% (and for his career, it’s 22.4%). So far this year, it’s 28.4%.
And on opening day (March 28), “Goldy†hit a home run — since then, in his 71 at-bats, he doesn’t have an extra-base hit. Breaking balls have been breaking Paul Goldschmidt.
And while I remain optimistic that this won’t be a lost season, Goldschmidt looks lost right now. And like Marmol mentioned, it doesn’t matter if you move him down in the lineup — ºüÀêÊÓƵ ultimately needs that human to ultimately produce like he has his entire career.
There are 141 games left (the Cards are 9-12). That’s a lot of at-bats to straighten things out. But what compounds the frustration is that some of the starting pitchers and most of the relievers have been exceeding expectations … and the offense, earmarked for mashing, is wilting.
As for Gorman, he’s an interesting case, because even in his best years, he’s still going to have a high strikeout rate. It’s part of his profile. Last year, he led the Cards in homers with 27 in 119 games, but tallied a 31.9% strikeout rate.
Well, this year, Gorman’s high strikeout rate is even high for him.
When he K’d on Friday to end the game in extras (his fourth strikeout of the night), it bumped his strikeout percentage to 38.
And in Gorman’s past four games, he has 10 strikeouts.
“It’s the same thing that I harped on last year — it’s getting in a good position to hit,†he said Saturday before his day off from the lineup. “That’s what it was.â€
I predicted Gorman would hit 35 homers this season. He’s a tad off pace. He only has three so far in 73 at-bats. And again, similarly to Goldy, I believe Gorman will rediscover his power stroke. But how soon — and how consistently — are vital questions regarding this lineup, which needs the lefty presence in the heart.
“He’s in the thick of it where it’s not carrying over the way he would like, the way we would like,†Marmol said. “And it’s unfortunate because, I mean, he had a really good offseason. Put in crazy amounts of work to be able to get to play as much as we want him out there — and not be limited to his back (pain). He came in ready, man. It’s one of those things where you want to see him get rewarded for that. That just hasn’t been the case up to this point.
“And it’s tough because I think part of it is — and I want to say this the right way — if I remove myself and become a fan, it’s hard not to couple last year with the beginning of this year and look at it as one, and then slightly start to panic based on certain guys not doing well. … But we have a ton of trust that Gorman and ‘Goldy’ are going to be just fine — it’s (only) April 20.â€