If you think the Cardinals will do better than they did last year, you probably will be right about their on-field record. But you’d be wrong about how bookmakers view the team now compared to the way they did just before the beginning of the 2023 season.
Last year the team staggered to its first last-place finish in three decades and won just 71 of its 162 games, falling far under its preseason over-under betting line of 86½ wins.
The Cardinals’ offseason moves centered around upgrading the pitching staff, but the skeptics question the amount of improvement the changes will bring. The bookies don’t seem impressed, setting the over-under line on how many games they will win this year at 84½. That was the number at all three legal sportsbooks in the area on Friday afternoon — Argosy (casino in Alton), DraftKings (Casino Queen in East ºüÀêÊÓƵ) and FanDuel (Fairmount Park horse track in Collinsville).
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So while that number is significantly higher than the amount of games the Cardinals won last year, the bookies’ figures say they think bettors view the team as two games worse than they did heading into last season.
October outlook
Taking it a step deeper, the most favorable price among the area’s shops on the Cardinals winning the National League Central Division title is +190 at DraftKings. That means a successful risk of $100 would be worth a profit of $190. That’s quite a difference from last year, when they were heavily favored to win the division crown ... at a price as high as -130 ($130 risk to try to win $100). That was at FanDuel.
DrafKings has the Cubs (+185) slightly favored over the Cards to win it this season. But the other two houses have the Redbirds on top: +150 at FanDuel (Cubs the second choice, +200) and +170 at Argosy, with the Cubbies at +205.
The difference in payouts underscores the importance, as always, of shopping around for the best numbers.
In the bigger picture, the most favorable line on the Cards to win the NL title is 16-1 (FanDuel and DraftKings), and the best World Series winning return is 35-1 (DraftKings).
All three shops also offered a bet on the Cardinals making the playoffs. DraftKings had them at +105 to get in, -125 to miss the postseason. Argosy had them at -114 either way, while FanDuel had “yes†at -105 and did not offer a “no†proposition.
Individually speaking
The local books are offering a bevy of player proposition bets for the season, and those always are fun to take a look at the tail end of spring training. Here are some involving Cardinals players as they head toward Thursday’s season opener on the road against the Dodgers:
FANDUEL Nolan Arenado home runs: Over/under 26½
Paul Goldschmidt home runs: Over/under 25½
Arenado and Goldschmidt to each hit at least 30 home runs: 5-1
Arenado to hit at least 50 homers and Goldschmidt to have at least 40: 30-1
Arenado to lead the majors in homers: 110-1
Goldschmidt to lead the majors in homers: 120-1
Gorman to lead the majors in homers: 160-1
Cardinals to score at least one run in every game before the All-Star break: 140-1
Cards to have at least two hits in every game: -195.
ARGOSY Sonny Gray to lead the majors in wins: 23-1
Miles Mikolas to lead the majors in wins: 65-1
Lance Lynn to lead the majors in wins: 75-1
Mikolas to win NL Cy Young Award: 100-1
Goldschmidt to win NL MVP Award: 30-1
Arenado to win NL MVP Award: 35-1
Lars Nootbaar to win NL MVP Award: 100-1
DRAFTKINGS Will the Cards start 5-0: Yes 18-1, No −10,000 (a $100 bet would make a $1 profit)
Cardinals to have most wins in NL Central at end of April: 3.7-1
Cardinals number of wins at end of April: Over/under 14.5
Cardinals longest winning streak: Over/under 7.5
Cardinals’ longest losing streak: Over/under 6.5
Cardinals to have longest winning streak in majors this year: 28-1
Cardinals to have longest losing streak in majors this year: 70-1
Will Arenado hit his 350th career homer this year (he has 325): Yes -200, No +160
Standing pat
The Blues won three of their four games in the last week, picking up two points in their climb toward a playoff spot. They enter the weekend trailing Vegas by four points, and have no team between them and the Golden Knights after leapfrogging Minnesota.
But their surge has had no impact on the local sportsbooks, which continue to have the team’s odds of making the playoffs to be long. In fact, there has been no change in the prices from a week ago.
DraftKings still had the number on the Blues failing to make the Stanley Cup field at -1600 on Friday afternoon (a $1,600 risk was required to try to turn a $100 profit), whereas a winning $100 bet on them to get in the field would put the better $850 to the good.
There also was no change at FanDuel, where the price on the Blues qualifying was at +750. As has been the case, no bet was being offered on them failing to qualify. Argosy was not posting any Blues playoff odds.
The shadowy side
The wild story regarding the alleged illegal sports betting of a close associate of Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani continues to unfold, with Ohtani’s ties still unclear. But another sports-betting report that emerged this week is receiving a lot less attention but also is troubling.
J.B. Bickerstaff, coach of the NBA’s Cleveland Cavaliers, said he received threats from gamblers last season.
“They got my telephone number and were sending me crazy messages about where I live and my kids and all that stuff,†Bickerstaff told reporters. “So it is a dangerous game and a fine line that we’re walking for sure.â€
He said he notified league officials, and the gambler was located.
“No charges,†Bickerstaff said. “But they found him.â€
Legal sports betting has spread across the country in recent years, with teams and leagues making money from the business. But there are associated costs.
“There’s no doubt about it that it’s crossed the line,†Bickerstaff said. “The amount of times where I’m standing up there and we may have a 10-point lead and the spread is 11 and people are yelling at me to leave the guys in so that we can cover the spread, it’s ridiculous.
“But again, I understand the business side of it and the nature of the business of it. But I mean, it is something that I believe has gone too far.â€
The Associated Press contributed to this report.