When it comes to scouting the many ways the Milwaukee Brewers have run away with the division lead this season and maintained their ongoing reign over the National League Central, the Cardinals have a good source inside their own clubhouse.
Willson Contreras talks regularly with the Brewers’ catcher — his younger brother, William — and has heard how an overlooked and understated Milwaukee club that replaced its manager and two starters was eager to prove, even with those losses, it could win anyway.
“They put out a really good, young team that is hungry, and they want to win the division so bad because everybody thought they were a Triple-A team, basically. But they’re not,†Willson Contreras said Sunday afternoon. “They’re inspired by that. They want to prove themselves together. It’s not each individual who wants to prove it by themself. I’m talking as a group they want to prove that what was being said before the season started about them was wrong. That’s the way they see it.
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“That’s what makes them special.â€
On the eve of a three-game visit to Busch Stadium that starts Tuesday, the Brewers extended their winning streak to five games Sunday, and all five of those games have come against first-place teams with at least 72 wins.
A sweep of Cleveland over the weekend coupled with the Cardinals’ troubles against the Los Angeles Dodgers extended the Brewers’ lead in the NL Central to 11 games — the heartiest of any division lead in the majors. And, like the division, it’s not close.
Milwaukee (72-52) is romping toward its sixth playoff appearance in seven seasons — a feat last accomplished in these parts by the Cardinals from 2009-15. The Brewers have become the Midwest’s leader by excelling at the advanced analytics of pitcher development, the chemistry of young contributors, the wizardry of opportunistic free-agent signings and the alchemy of just the right trade. If all of that sounds familiar to the ºüÀêÊÓƵ era the usurper Brewers are about to match, it should with the added dash of patience.
They’ve out-Cardinal’d the Cardinals.
“Nobody thinks that we can do anything. Nobody is picking us to do anything,†outfielder Christian Yelich told a couple of NL Central beat writers at the All-Star Game. “It’s a blessing because you’re going out there and playing with house money, and you’re like, ‘Let’s see what happens.’ We have guys who are really good players. They might not be household names yet, but I think we do a really good job of competing hard. We have a great culture. It doesn’t always look pretty, (but) we’re a really resilient group and find ways to get it done.â€
Yelich, a former MVP acquired via trade, became the latest loss for the winning Brewers when he announced on social media that a back injury would end his season. This past winter, the Brewers lost manager Craig Counsell when he jumped for a jackpot payday from the Cubs, and at the same time, Milwaukee traded Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes to Baltimore. All-Star Brandon Woodruff was already lost for 2024 to shoulder surgery.
Spring brought news that ace closer Devin Williams would miss four months with a back injury. The ºüÀêÊÓƵ native returned in force this month, just in time for two saves as the Brewers split a four-game visit from LA this past week. But in his absence, the Brewers bullpen was nimble and effective as ever — with the best ERA (3.25) in the National League.
“I think everything about the Brewers starts on top,†Willson Contreras said. “They’ve been figuring out a way to win games, a way to replace players when they’re hurt, a way to replace pitchers when they’re hurt and find a good pitching staff. That’s the only way I can see it. They have everything.â€
Said Dodgers outfielder Jason Heyward, who jousted with the Brewers as both a Cardinal and a Cub for much of his career: “They seem to have figured out a nice way of developing pitching. Their foundation of good pitching and defense — that’s a hell of a place to start.â€
Under new manager Pat Murphy, who ascended from bench coach to replace Counsell, Milwaukee raged offensively to start the year and build an early lead that didn’t wilt as the lineup slowed. The Cardinals last caught them at the high tide of their offense and have been outscored in games against the Brewers 42 to 16. Milwaukee won the first six games of the season vs. their division rivals and are 1-6 overall. They are the only NL team this season against which the Cardinals do not have at least two wins.
Since getting that lone victory on Mother’s Day, the Cardinals have gone 46-39.
The Brewers are undeterred, going 48-37 to increase their lead.
They have remained in first place for 138 days this season thanks to that bullpen and an above average offense that walks before it can run. They are among the best at not making outs, with a .331 team on-base percentage that ranks third in the majors. Their walk rate of 9.6% is behind only the Yankees and Dodgers.
“You have to identify within yourself: How are we going to win?†Yelich explained. “With our team and our organization, that is really what we’ve done well. Alright, this is how we can win. It might not look great sometimes or it might not be the prettiest, but we’re going to win. We find ways to win.â€
They lost two games this past week to LA by a combined score of 12-4.
They lost Yelich for the season.
They have not lost since.
“It’s just a very fearless, athletic, young team,†Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “I think Murph has done a great job with them. They’re not afraid of anyone. They’ve gone through some changes, and they haven’t missed a beat.â€
And it doesn’t appear like they’re going anywhere.
Like the Cardinals during their run of NLCS appearances a decade ago, the Brewers have nourished their big league roster with a steady stream of homegrown players. Baseball America studied the contributions teams have received from drafted pitchers since 2012 and found the Cardinals got the most bulk innings, by 1,300; the Brewers got the most quality with the fewest runs allowed per nine (4.02).
Yelich described how Murphy “gets the most out of young players” at a time when the Brewers have relied on a handful of young players. There are 26 position players in the National League 26 or younger who also have a wins above replacement better than 1.5. Two are Cardinals: Masyn Winn and Michael Siani, per . Four are Brewers. A fifth Brewer ranks in the top 30 for WAR, and no other NL club has more than three.
If there’s a “sliding door†alternate universe moment for the NL Central where the shift from the Cardinals’ reign to the Brewers’ began, it was January 2018, when Milwaukee landed Yelich in a trade from Miami. The Cardinals had pursued that same trade, first working a deal with Miami that slugger Giancarlo Stanton vetoed. The Cardinals repeated interest in Yelich, only to have Miami resist and say they were going to keep the young, left-handed-hitting outfielder. The Cardinals did not want to leave talks empty-handed and risk not landing a cleanup hitter that winter, so they bested San Francisco’s offer for All-Star Marcell Ozuna.
The Brewers waited.
An executive with the Brewers said they could afford more patience than the Cardinals because of the pressure on the Cardinals to contend, to upgrade the offense, to not get left without an addition. The patience paid off as Miami reconsidered and traded Yelich. He won the MVP that next summer. If such patience was the spark that ignited the Brewers’ reign, it could be similar patience that keeps it burning.
While losing pieces from the roster, the Brewers made headlines this winter by signing prospect Jackson Chourio to an eight-year, $80 million deal — the largest ever for a player without major league experience. They were making a commitment. And like the Cardinals, they were counting on a young outfielder to emerge as a factor.
Chourio appeared in 51 of their first 58 games, started 45 of them, and hit .207 with a .575 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS). But his playing time didn’t vanish, didn’t slip into a platoon. He started 56 of their next 64 games and appeared in three more, and he’s responded with a .321 average, a .530 slugging percentage and an .897 OPS. Patience and playing time beget production.
What’s left for the Brewers is advancing in the playoffs.
Their hold on the division has not translated to October, with only one NLCS appearance in their past five playoff berths. They’re 1-8 in the postseason since 2018.
“You hear about the Dodgers, the Cubs, the big markets, and you hear about ºüÀêÊÓƵ because of the earned history,†Heyward said. “What’s missing from Milwaukee is that. Outside of that, they’re right there. They have to be a team that other teams go through.â€