As Matthew Liberatore reminded fans again Monday night, pitching development remains the Cardinals’ primary organizational challenge.
The team’s offensive slump overshadowed that issue for weeks. The sweeping regression of hitters in the 21-to-27 age bracket was especially concerning, given the potential long-term implications.
But most of those young hitters gained big league footing during the past few years while the progress of pitching prospects remained spotty.
Liberatore, 24, has been a poster boy for that concern. This is Year 3 of his struggle to find his place with this team.
He showed promise earlier this season in relief, but Steven Matz’s latest injury — and the lack of other rotation options — forced Liberatore to switch roles again. Working with pitch limits in his first two starts, he allowed five runs on eight hits and two walks over seven innings.
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Like Liberatore, Zack Thompson, 26, is in Year 3 of his breakthrough bid. This spring, the Cardinals groomed him as a depth starter, and he opened the season filling in for the injured Sonny Gray.
In two starts Thompson yielded eight runs in 10â…“ innings. He allowed 11 hits, including four homers, and he walked six batters. Not good!
In three relief appearances, Thompson was even worse: 10 runs allowed in 6â…” innings on 13 hits (including two homers) and two walks.
Thompson gained fastball velocity in previous years while shifting to the bullpen — and he lost velocity during his return to starting this season. Now, he is trying to rebuild at Triple-A Memphis, where he walked seven batters in three innings on May 9.
The front office addressed the team’s pitching development concerns by restocking the farm system with prospects during last summer’s trading spree. Then the Cardinals added three veterans via free agency to provide stopgap rotation help.
They also loaded up the bullpen with new additions, thus reducing the need to convert starter prospects into relievers to fill immediate needs.
Those measures bought the player development operation more time to build an arms supply. That’s good because the Cardinals still don’t have much near-term help in the minors.
There are a few bright spots, including the rise of reliever Chris Roycroft from the Frontier League to the majors, Sem Robberse’s solid start at Memphis and some eye-grabbing work from Quinn Mathews as he earned his promotion from Class A Palm Beach to advanced High-A Peoria.
Mathews has made notable velocity gains since recovering from his heavy collegiate workload at Stanford, so his early showing has been most encouraging. A mid-90s fastball makes his change-up even more effective.
Overall, though, the struggles have outweighed the progress, so the organization must redouble its efforts to polish its pitchers.
The immediate challenge filling the fifth starter role, considering Matz will be sidelined for a while. If Liberatore can’t do it, then the options would include Robberse (4-1, 2.81 ERA in seven Memphis starts), prospect Gordon Graceffo (3-3, 4.93 through seven starts), Thompson and Andre Pallante.
The Cardinals don’t want to rush Robberse, who was acquired in the Jordan Hicks deal at last season’s trade deadline, or Graceffo, who is still trying to sustain success at the Triple-A level.
Pallante took a pummeling earlier this season in his relief role before the Cardinals demoted him. Now, he is trying to stretch out as a starter in Memphis. But can he develop a sufficient pitch arsenal for that role?
Elsewhere in the system, key prospects are yielding spotty results.
Former first-round pick Michael McGreevy built endurance last season while working 153 innings, but he can’t seem to miss bats. Through his first eight starts, McGreevy is 2-4 with a 6.28 ERA and 53 hits allowed in 38⅔ innings.
Top pitching prospect Tink Hence was 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA in his first five starts at Double-A Springfield (Missouri). But in his past two outings, he allowed 15 runs (only six earned) on 13 hits and five walks in eight innings.
Tekoah Roby, the key return in last season’s Jordan Montgomery trade, had a 30-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 28⅔ innings at Springfield. But he also allowed nine homers while posting a 5.97 ERA while losing his status as one of ’s top 100 prospects.
The Cardinals hoped former first-round pick Cooper Hjerpe’s unorthodox left-handed delivery would help him rise quickly. He earned 28 strikeouts in his first 18⅔ innings at Peoria.
But he has walked 13 batters and hit three more, so he will need better command.
Many other prospects came into the spring with work to do. For Brycen Mautz, it was finding a better change-up. For Max Rajcic, it was nailing down better command of his off-speed stuff. For Pete Hansen, it was improving his fastball velocity, movement and command. Adam Kloffenstein, it was more heat on his four-seamer.
The Cardinals loathe spending huge long-term dollars on free-agent hurlers. But they will pay a high price, one way or another, if they can’t develop pitching in both quantity and quality.