As summer faded into autumn during one of the earliest seasons of his career, Paul Goldschmidt was emerging as a locomotive of production, a hitter who mixed might with steadiness, and he mentioned to his hitting coach in the batting cage how he’d “just like to finish strong.â€
“Why?†his coach then and now, Turner Ward, asked.
He could load questions like a pitching machine.
Ward pointed out that if there was a finish-strong switch to flip, another gear to reach for the final weeks on a schedule, why hadn’t Goldschmidt already done that? Why wait for the calendar to spur motivation that could be there all along?
“I remember Turner was like, ‘That’s not a good mindset,’†Goldschmidt said. “His point was you just need to keep the same mindset you’ve had. You don’t need to do anything different because there’s a month left. Why put more pressure on yourself? If you’re in a good mindset — and I feel like I am — that was his point. Keep doing it.â€
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After five months of frustration and searching at the plate for the performance that once seemed habitual, Goldschmidt has hit the back stretch of this season — and kept hitting. In the past 10 games, he’s reached base more often (22) than he he’s been out (21). He has four three-hit games in the past two weeks, and since leaving Minnesota with a .226 average, he’s gone 20 for 41 (.488) with nine extra-base hits to raise his average to .247, hoisting his slugging percentage from .385 to .417.
Two years removed from being the National League MVP, Goldschmidt turns 37 next week and is closer now than he’s ever been to free agency as his five-year, $130 million contract with the Cardinals concludes. He has said he intends to play in 2025. During spring training, he and the Cardinals tabled discussions on a contract extension until after the season. While the Cardinals plan to talk to Goldschmidt and see if there’s mutual interest in a return, the finish to this uneasy season will shape the club’s direction, and he’ll likely have to reach free agency and the open market in November for the sides to explore financial terms. Coming off the least productive season of his career will be a factor in any offer — as will a strong finish.
“What’s been the most frustrating is consistency is the thing I’ve always tried to make my career on,†Goldschmidt said at his locker during this past road trip. “I’ve done a really good job of that, and I just haven’t been consistent at all this year. I think that’s been the hardest thing for me — trying to find that consistency and just not having it from day to day. Some days are good, some bad. It’s not just the swing. That’s why it’s such an up and down — mostly down — year for me.â€
While a strong finish isn’t a change in mindset, it can change perspective.
And Goldschmidt is hardly alone.
Beginning with Seattle’s visit to Busch Stadium this weekend, the Cardinals (71-69) have 22 games remaining to pull off what would be an improbable run for the postseason. Their odds according to are less than 2%. The Cardinals are 4-0-1 in their past five series, and they’ve gone 6-4 during Goldschmidt’s 10-game burst. But they have not gained any ground. The three teams between them and the third wild-card berth all kept pace or stayed ahead in that 10-game stretch — the Braves (6-4), Mets (8-2), and Cubs (7-3). Consecutive extra-inning victories against the first-place Brewers this week did buoy the Cardinals’ record above .500, and a winning record this year would avoid being the first Cardinals club since the 1950s to have back-to-back losing seasons with a full schedule.
Finishes matter. History takes note.
Within their lineup, the Cardinals have two hitters, Goldschmidt and Jordan Walker, at opposite points in their careers but similar spots in their seasons. The marathon is winding down, and it’s been disappointing for both. The sprint has arrived. For Walker, the club’s prized prospect who spent most of the year at Class AAA Memphis, the ending to this season is about building momentum for the beginning of next season.
“The hope would be that,†manager Oliver Marmol said. “Show up every day and know that your name is going to be in the lineup outside of scheduled off days (like Wednesday). And that you’re going to be giving an opportunity to develop at this level in hopes it gives you enough of a runway leading into the offseason where you know exactly what you need to do to come back even more prepared and ready and have the year that he knows and we know he’s capable of having.â€
Walker started this final month with a five-hit game at Yankee Stadium that included his first homer in the majors this season. He has spent all summer working to adjust his stance and swing to give him a better chance at elevating line drives and ignoring or punching off-speed pitches plunging away from him. In that five-hit game he did both — pulling for power and lining a pitch the other way for a single. He went 0 for 8 with four strikeouts in Milwaukee.
“They’re giving me a chance, and I’ll be ready and play my game,†Walker said. “This game is not just numbers. It’s also about feel. I could go oh-for and feel great at the plate. Sometimes I get two hits but don’t feel really that good. I feel like I have a solid approach to my swing mechanics that I can stick with, to be honest.â€
Goldschmidt, likewise, has described his swing in terms of “feel.â€
For more than the past year, he’s felt off with how he primes his swing — how he brings his hands back and his body position as he spring-loads his swing. Presented with Walker’s description, Goldschmidt was asked if his recent box scores are reflective of how he feels, or just how the ball is falling.
“This year, it’s hard for me to give you an answer,†Goldschmidt said. “Because I feel there have been times where I felt good and I just haven’t hit the ball in the game. I wish I could say the other day, ‘Oh, you’re starting to feel better.’ Honestly, I don’t know what’s going to happen this year. It’s been one of those where there have been three or four times when I’ve been, OK, I’m starting to get going and then the next day is not good at all. It’s been a year where it’s hard for me so just not overthink it and go up there and hit.â€
If seeking consistency has been his anchor, Goldschmidt was asked, how does he work through that inconsistency he just described?
“I feel like I have the ability to do some different things — you can let the ball travel, you can wait for a certain pitch, try to pull the ball more, or try to go the other way,†Goldschmidt said. “I just really haven’t had the ability to do that. If I’ve tried to let it get deep, I’ve struck out. Try to be patient, and then I’m down 0-2 at times. Be aggressive, and I chase. It’s been one of those years where I haven’t executed, so to give myself the best chance I’ve really had to simplify more than in years past.
“This year I haven’t had the ability to do multiple things — just the swing hasn’t been good enough to handle that,†he continued. “So, all right, just really simplify.â€
The analytics illustrate his description.
No one in the majors has hit as often this season with a two-strike count. Goldschmidt has 341 at-bats with two strikes, and only one other National League hitter has more than 314. He’s batting .170 in those at-bats, meaning he’s a .310 hitter in his other 232. Despite a career-low slugging percentage, Goldschmidt remains among the best in the game at hard-hit rates (50.1%) and his average exit velocity (91.6 mph) is better than his MVP year. Statcast defines a “blast†swing as “squared-up†and efficient, or “the most valuable swing there is.†Goldschmidt has the seventh-most in the National League with 128, just behind Atlanta designated hitter Marcell Ozuna’s 132. (Shohei Ohtani leads the NL with 173.)
How to square the metrics with the statistics is an offseason project.
Which brought Goldschmidt back around to the time in Arizona, early in his career, and the question asked by hitting coach Ward. A strong finish is the timing of production that comes from a steady mindset. A difficult year tests that, but, with the right mindset, its lessons can be beneficial for seasons ahead, whether the hitter is 22 with an entire career to come or 37 with a career to burnish.
“The years that you struggle are always going to test you a little bit more, but they are also the years when you can grow the most,†Goldschmidt said. “I will look back on this and hopefully take this and be glad for I’ve learned from it. That’s just a mindset. When things go bad you have to think of it as a learning opportunity. The most trying times are the times of the biggest growth. I haven’t struggled for this long before, but I have been through struggles — and that always holds true. I’m better from what I learned.â€