If the Cardinals feel their chests tighten and their stomachs seize while in Cincinnati for this series, it might not be entirely fair to heap blame upon Skyline Chili.
Just as capable of inducing heartburn and causing indigestion as Cincinnati’s strange spaghetti-and-chili concoction is the run of opponents that will await the Cardinals once they conclude this meeting with the Reds that began Monday night. And that series started for them with a thud, as Cincinnati pounded Cards ace Sonny Gray for three homers and six runs over his five innings en route to a 6-1 victory.
With no slander meant toward to the fourth-place Reds, who are more than capable of beating the Cardinals as they proved, they do represent bookends of relative reprieve surrounding what will soon become a blitz destined to determine if the Cardinals are potential postseason threats or playoff pretenders.
Seven series. Twenty-two games. Two options. Emerge from the battle with renewed confidence about what this season could become. Or emerge from it exposed, with all of the doubters saying told you so.
Starting with Miles Mikolas’ first pitch Friday night against the Dodgers, the Cardinals will be thrust into seven straight series against winning teams. Not just ones narrowly on the right side of the .500 cutting line, either. We’re talking big winners. Legitimate contenders. Not teams that hope to get into the postseason. Teams that were built to get into it and play like that.
After months of talking and debating about what the Cardinals are all about, we’re about to find out.
Let’s go through it, in order.
- The Dodgers, despite significant injuries affecting their absurd star power, never have trailed in the competitive National League West standings. They are the World Series championship favorite, according to FanGraphs’ projection math, which assigns them a 16.5% chance of winning it all. That’s better odds than the FanGraphs math gives the Cardinals to make the postseason: 14.1%.
- The National League Central-leading Brewers, not the Dodgers or Yankees, now own baseball’s best run differential (plus-106 entering Monday’s games). As the NL wild-card race escalates, it was fair to wonder for a moment if the Cardinals’ best chance of cracking the postseason could be chasing down the Brewers. Without Christian Yelich, Milwaukee could be more vulnerable, right? Wrong, at least so far.
The Brewers have more wins than the Cardinals since Yelich’s problematic back grounded him again. The still-underrated division leader that has owned the NL Central since the Cubs abandoned their World Series championship perch see the Cardinals twice, six games total, during the Cardinals’ 23-day pressure test. And remember, the Brewers have beaten the Cardinals six times in their seven tries this season, outscoring the Cardinals 42-16 in those games. That sound you hear is Brewers manager Pat Murphy gaining steam toward NL manager of the year honors.
- The Twins haven’t had a losing month all season and are even sharper at home, where the American League Central’s second-place team has won nearly 60% of their games this season. The Cardinals head there after the Dodgers and Brewers visit Busch.
- Mike Shildt’s Padres, if you had not heard, have been on an absolute tear. Heading into Monday’s play, they were 51-35 since the beginning of May and 16-4 since the All-Star break. They have won 60% of their road games this season and will try to add to that number in a four-game series at Busch, where the Cardinals have won just four more games than they have lost. Something to know about both the Twins and the Padres: Their pitchers are tied for the second-most strikeouts in baseball.
- The AL East-leading Yankees remain the AL’s favorite to host a parade, per the FanGraphs math (14.8%), which believes the chances of the Cardinals making the postseason is about the same as the Yankees increasing their all-time championships lead against the Cardinals. Visiting the Yankees could be the easiest portion of this trip, though. The Cardinals go see the Brewers right after it.
- Seattle completes the surge. The first-place Mariners have been setting the AL West’s pace for months. They have homered more often than the Dodgers and their rotation boasts baseball’s lowest staff ERA (3.24).
Then, finally, mercifully, Cincinnati again. The Reds’ Sept. 10 return to Busch marks the start of a softer swing for the Cardinals, one that gifts them three consecutive series against teams on the wrong side of .500. It could be a chance to catch a breath, or flex. It could be over by then, too.
I won’t pretend to know how it will go. I’m a lot more interested in watching than guessing or hearing others do the same. We’ve spent this season wondering not just if the Cardinals could make the postseason but what they could actually be capable of if they do wind up getting in. The grind that begins after this Cincinnati series is as telling of a practice test as any team could be assigned.
There’s no better way to prove you belong in the postseason and should be respected upon arrival than by beating teams that hold such status.
Well, here comes a whole bunch of them.