BenFred: There goes the Cardinals’ momentum again. Here’s why it keeps happening.
Listen now and subscribe: |
Go ahead and press pause on that Cardinals momentum talk.
A losing road trip through Philadelphia and Houston didn’t do it entirely. But a split — and that would be the best case scenario now — of this four-game home series against the rotten Rockies should. After reaching .500 in Cincinnati, the Cardinals don’t have consecutive wins since.
Reminder: The Rockies had just eight road wins when they showed up to Busch Stadium for this series. They now have two more, with a chance to make it three in a series-deciding game Sunday against … a Cardinals starting pitcher who had not yet been named by Saturday’s first pitch.
The announced crowd Saturday is something to note, too. School’s out for the summer, and 34,577 was the official paid attendance. Not good for around here. At home, Cardinals fans have now watched (or not watched) their team fail to win series against both the White Sox and the Rockies. Combined, those two teams are 39-89.
And yet, thanks to a meandering National League, the Cardinals can be two things at once. They are cold again. And they are still quite alive in the NL’s wild-card jostling.
Calling it a race would suggest there was consistent, competitive progress in an obvious direction for the included teams. This looks more like a three-legged sack race done at recent elementary school field days across the region — after teams took 20 turns around their bats with foreheads pressed to the knobs. Eight clubs, including the Cardinals, are either holding a wild-card spot or within one game of it. Who wants it? Somewhere Ben Stein asks, “Bueller? Bueller?”
Three big, obvious issues keep tripping up the Cardinals in their attempts to distance themselves from their league’s amorphous blob. Two seem plenty fixable if a front office believes in this team’s chances. A third is only fixable by two struggling cornerstone players who are making more than $60 million this season.
Let’s dig in.
Unreliable outfield
Dylan Carlson has become a microcosm of the Cardinals’ continued outfield unreliability.
People genuinely trying to find out what this team thinks about the switch-hitting outfielder have probably hit the injured list more often than Tyler O’Neill. The injury? Whiplash.
This offseason Carlson was described publicly and emphatically as a fourth outfielder the Cardinals would prefer to not play in center.
Now the message is Carlson, once again, needs regular reps as a regular starter. And he’s starting in center field.
Until the next approach, that is.
The team’s overoptimistic stance on Tommy Edman’s return from an operation blew up in its face. Lars Nootbaar’s injuries keep keeping him off the field. Jordan Walker is still locked in Class AAA despite playing more games there now than he did last season before returning and finishing strong.
Even with Alec Burleson’s encouraging performance, the Cardinals from their chaotic outfield are getting the lowest on-base plus slugging percentage (.629) in the majors.
It’s worse than it was last season, when the outfielders ranked 18th (.736).
And no, more chances for Red Sox slugger O’Neill would not have solved the problem. He’s hurt again in Boston.
Cardinals outfielders have 18 homers this season between them. That’s three fewer than Aaron Judge’s solo count.
Playing Michael Siani in center doesn’t help the offense, but he does get to balls Carlson can’t reach, as Saturday’s game showed again.
Still one starter short
Did I mention the Cardinals hadn’t announced Sunday’s starter before Saturday’s first pitch? Well, they didn’t announce it after Saturday’s last pitch either. It’s because there is no good answer. This approach is the closest thing manager Oli Marmol can do besides wearing a #SendHelp sign on his chest in the dugout. Rehabbing Steven Matz, Zack Thompson, Matthew Liberatore and Andre Pallante have combined to make 13 starts for the Cardinals this season. The Cardinals are 4-9 in those games. The coin-flip approach to the fifth starter spot is wearing on this team. Especially as Sonny Gray, who is supposed to be the rotation leader, searches for traction.
Glossing over a glaring hole gets a lot harder when anyone in the core four struggles.
You know when you have a bad game and you look forward to the next game’s starter as the stopper? The Cardinals have the exact opposite of that Sunday. The dreaded TBA.
Key sluggers stalled
The Cardinals talked so much about needing more vocal leadership added to their clubhouse this offseason, it raised some fair questions about how they viewed Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt’s abilities in that department.
What was not questioned was the third and first baseman’s ability to produce at the plate something relatively near their career norms.
Both Goldschmidt (.653 OPS) and Arenado (.676) are tracking toward career-low on-base plus slugging percentages. Arenado ranks 149th in the majors in OPS. Goldschmidt’s at 159th.
Look, Willson Contreras can hopefully return once healthy and start clamping down on the base stealers Ivan Herrera can’t stop. Defense needs to be cleaned up by all. There are other issues, sure, but none are bigger than Goldschmidt and Arenado suddenly becoming below league average hitters. The NL average OPS? It’s currently .699.
You don’t fix that with a move, folks. And if these two don’t fix themselves, it’s fair to wonder if adding help from the outside will make enough of a difference. Yes, even in a wide-open wild-card slog.
Bases-clearing error sparks Cardinals' lineup, but it's not enough as Colorado rocks relief
Listen now and subscribe: |
Stretched thin by the Cardinals’ close games and their inability Saturday to generate much offense without the help of the Colorado Rockies, a resilient bullpen finally snapped.
Welcomed back into the game by a bases-clearing error by the Rockies, the Cardinals could not hold a slim lead for even an inning as Colorado seized on regularly used right-hander Andrew Kittredge for three runs in the top of the seventh. Ezequiel Tovar’s second homer of the game lifted the Rockies to a 6-5 victory at Busch Stadium.
Tovar finished the game with a career-high four hits and a career-high four RBIs to go with his two home runs and the decisive swing.
The Cardinals had just taken a one-run lead in the bottom of the sixth with four unearned runs when Kittredge entered for his usual assignment. One of the National League’s top setup men and leaders for holds, Kittredge (0-3) has been part of the Cardinals’ three-man, late-inning recipe for closing out leads, day after day after day. The top of the Rockies’ order gave him trouble. A one-out double followed by a single and a couple of steals seeded the bases for Tovar.
He drilled a 385-foot homer on an 0-2 pitch for a two-run shot and his second homer in consecutive at-bats.
The Cardinals got the tying run to second in the ninth before Rockies right-hander Tyler Kinley secured his second save of the series.
The lead Kittredge had to hold was conjured out of Colorado errors not sustained offense from the Cardinals. They struggled to do much of anything against Ryan Feltner, the Rockies’ right-hander who entered the game with an ERA approaching 6.50 and riding one of the worst stretches by a starter this season. He held the Cardinals to one hit through five innings.
Kyle Gibson tiptoed around eight hits allowed, multiple stolen bases, and two errors by his teammates to keep Colorado within reach. The veteran right-hander completed another quality start with three runs allowed through six innings.
He struck out seven, including all three he faced in the fourth inning, and coaxed two double plays.
With one of the smallest summer weekend crowds ever at Busch Stadium, there were fewer than usual there to see the Cardinals on the brink of losing another home series to a last-place team. The White Sox came to Busch Stadium earlier this season and won two of the three, and the Rockies can, with a win Sunday, take the four-game series.
Bases-clearing error spurs Cardinals
The Cardinals had zilch going offensively until they got a helping hand from the Rockies.
The gifts started with a leadoff walk.
The game-changing errors followed.
In the sixth inning of a game Feltner had otherwise controlled, his hold on it loosened ever so slightly by walking Matt Carpenter. Teammates lost the grip entirely. A fielding error by second baseman Alan Trejo cost the Rockies a sure out at second base and perhaps a double play. That mistake loaded the bases for Paul Goldschmidt. An error by first baseman Elehuris Montero unloaded them.
Goldschmidt hit a bounding grounder to Montero, the former Cardinal prospect who was a part of the Nolan Arenado trade. Montero tried to follow his momentum with a throw to second for the forceout. His throw was wide of the base. Its momentum carried all the way to the foul-territory wall past left field. Alec Burleson, who hit the grounder Trejo botched, scored all the way first base to tie the game, 3-3.
The Cardinals went from zero runs against Feltner in 5 1/3 innings to three runs on one throw by a Rockies’ infielder.
By the time Arenado came up with Goldschmidt in scoring position and put the Cardinals ahead, Feltner had yielded the mound to a teammate. Arenado stung a single to left field to cap a four-run inning with a 4-3 lead. All four runs were unearned.
Carpenter vaults ahead of Holliday
A return to the Cardinals this season has given Carpenter a crack at climbing the career rankings and move ahead of some friends, some teammates, and some club Hall of Famers.
He did a bit of both with his homer in the seventh.
Carpenter’s second homer of the season was the 157th of his career as a Cardinal, and that moved him ahead of Matt Holliday during the Bill DeWitt Jr. ownership era. He also is now alone in 12th all time. The run Carpenter scored eclipsed Pepper Martin’s 756 as a Cardinal, so Carpenter is now 16th all time in scoring for the club, and the extra-base hit meant that Carpenter has more as a Cardinal than Jim Edmonds.
Cardinals vexed by mile-high ERA
Feltner arrived in Ƶ for his eighth road start of the season with the highest ERA of any starter in the majors who had enough innings to qualify for such a thing.
His 6.22 ERA through 63 2/3 innings including a recent run of duds.
In three of his previous four starts, the right-handed had allowed at least five runs, and in his previous start – against Cincinnati – Feltner allowed a season-worst eight runs on10 hits. Opponents have scored five runs or more against him in nearly half of his starts this season, but the Cardinals had troubles getting a hit let alone any runs against Feltner through five innings.
The Colorado right-hander struck out five of the first nine Cardinals he faced. Through three innings, he retired all nine batters, and by the end of the fifth he had faced only one more than the minimum. A groundball single in the fourth by Goldschmidt broke up Feltner’s perfect run only to watch him start another one. The start the fourth inning, Feltner had slashed his ERA down to 5.94. With the help of the Cardinals and errors by his teammates, Feltner’s 5 1/3 innings did not include an earned run and cleaved a ½ run off his ERA.
Feltner confounded the Cardinals throughout those first few five innings. In the second, he elevated a 96-mph fastball to strike out Brendan Donovan on three pitches. During the mess in the sixth inning that cost him the lead, Feltner nearly found a way out of it with a three-pitch strikeout of leadoff hitter Masyn Winn.
The seven strikeouts from the Cardinals were the third-most in a Feltner start.
More errors hound Cardinals
Before benefiting from the errors, the Cardinals committed a couple to grease Rockies’ offense.
In the first inning, Rockies center fielder Brenton Doyle drew a walk, and on the decisive pitch, leadoff hitter Charlie Blackmon took off for second. Despite the walk forcing Blackmon to second and ruling out any chance of a steal, catcher Ivan Herrera threw down to second – and too high. The unforced error allowed Blackmon to reach third and base, and that made it ease for him to score on Tovar’s single for a quick 1-0 lead.
Gibson pitched around Nolan Gorman’s throwing error in the third inning by getting a series of infield outs, including an inning-ending double play that Gorman pivoted at second.
In five of their past seven games, the Cardinals have committed at least two errors.
And those don’t count all the misplays or mistakes that led to the Rockies taking an extra 90 feet here or there against the Cardinals. In the seventh – as the Rockies overtook the Cardinals’ lead – Blackmon and Doyle each stole a base against Herrera to get the go-ahead run in scoring position.
With Tovar at the plate, turns out they already were.
Photos: Cardinals defense drops game to Rockies 6-5
Visiting Memphis to scout Cardinals' scrutinized prospect pipeline: Best Podcast in Baseball
Listen now and subscribe: |
When it comes to evaluating a farm system, few things offer a better glimpse of the external view of a club's young talent than the trade deadline and nothing gives greater clarity on the internal view of that talent than when there's a need at the major-league level.
Consider the Cardinals.
Ƶ baseball writer Daniel Guerrero recently visited Memphis, Tennessee, to scout just that -- how actions at the big-league level relate to the production and development of top prospects at the highest affiliate. Guerrero returned with stories for on Jordan Walker (read all about it here), Thomas Saggese (read more here), Victor Scott II, Michael McGreevy (read more here), and several pitchers. And he joins the Best Podcast in Baseball and baseball writer Derrick Goold to discuss if there's advancement coming from Memphis or just idling talent in Memphis.
An injury to Steven Matz at the beginning of May opened a spot in the Cardinals' rotation, and as they await the lefty's return they have at least twice had a chance to promote a prospect from within to make those starts. They did not. Actions always speak louder than rankings, and for the Cardinals their actions at the big-league level have suggested they feel it's more important for some of their prospects to continue developing in Class AAA Memphis than have their routine upset with a spot start, or, in some cases, that they're not ready to contribute to the majors even in a spot start.
It's a telling decision from the team that also strikes at their situation in the outfield.
The Cardinals are going to need contributions from the the organization in both the outfield and on the mound, and how they utilize their top affiliate is a chance to scrutinize the prospect pipeline and player development.
The two baseball writers conclude the episode by making their picks to represent the Cardinals in the Futures Game.
The Best Podcast in Baseball, sponsored by Closets by Design of Ƶ, is a production of the Ƶ, , and Derrick Goold.
With 11 errors on the road trip and 23 in a 19-game span, Cardinals have played porously, but advanced metrics say they're not a poor defense. What gives?
Veteran starter completed six superb innings on 62 pitches but turned the game over to the bullpen for a 4-2 victory against Houston. Is this a new approach for a classic starter?
Mikolas provides a quality start of six innings and Helsley finishes three no-hit innings by the bullpen for a 4-2 victory against Houston to end road trip.
On back-to-back pitches in decisive third inning of 8-5 loss, Pallante threw a a slider (not new) and a sinker (new and vital) that netted four runs and multiple lessons.
Two errors in two innings left the Ƶ Cardinals playing catch-up to the Colorado Rockies, losing 6-5 at Busch Stadium on Saturday, June…
Why Dylan Carlson’s big day at the plate could be a significant step for the Cardinals
Listen now and subscribe: |
Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson has faced no shortage of disappointments or challenges since late last season. They’ve ranged from injury to surgery to being seemingly pushed to the background of the club’s plans.
Once he'd put that behind him and started finding success on the field this spring, the cycle restarted with another injury.
Since he’d returned from his most recent injury (a sprained left shoulder), Carlson had been trying to simultaneously build strength and find rhythm and timing despite inconsistent playing time.
“It has its challenges for sure,” Carlson said. “At the end of the day, we’re professionals. You’ve got to be ready when called upon, be ready to contribute. I think for me, personally, that’s the best mindset I can take into it. Just trust my work, understand the situations I need to be prepared for and give myself the best opportunity to help this team.”
Carlson’s two hits and three RBIs helped the Cardinals to an 8-5 win over the Colorado Rockies in front of an announced crowd of 35,299 at Busch Stadium on Friday night.
“He needed that. We needed that,” Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said. “Hopefully, that’s a step that allows him to continue to play with more confidence. … A game like that could spur you on. Hopefully, that’s what that does because he definitely came through tonight several times.”
The Cardinals (30-32) evened the four-game series with the win, and they enjoyed their highest scoring game since they scored 10 runs in a win against the Boston Red Sox on May 17.
Brendan Donovan (2 for 4) drove in the go-ahead run in the eighth inning before Carlson drove in a pair of insurance runs. Alec Burleson (2 for 5), Paul Goldschmidt (2 for 4, two RBIs) and Ivan Herrera (2 for 4, two runs) also had multi-hit games.
Rookie shortstop Masyn Winn (1 for 4, double) had a hit and a walk and scored twice out of the leadoff spot in the batting order.
The Cardinals went 7 for 12 with runners in scoring position.
They scored the first four runs of the game, but they coughed that lead up when starting pitcher Lance Lynn gave up four runs in the fourth inning. Lynn allowed four runs on six hits and two walks in four innings. He also struck out six.
The Rockies (22-41) led 5-4 going into the sixth inning.
Carlson, a switch hitter who started in center field, delivered the first of two clutch late-inning hits in the sixth. He started for just the 12th time this season since he came of the injured list on May 5.
“This game will test you,” Carlson said. “I’ve gone through a lot of challenges, ups and downs here. The game just finds different ways to challenge you, and it’s something — it’s part of your story.
"Keep growing. Keep building. Keep evolving. Make the most out of it. Right now, I’m trying to make the most out of my opportunity here and keep contributing when called upon.”
Entering the night, Carlson had just one hit against a right-handed pitcher (1 for 18) this season.
With the Cardinals trailing, runners on the corners and two outs, Marmol left Carlson in the game to bat against right-handed pitcher Anthony Molina in the sixth.
Carlson swatted a 3-2 fastball from Molina on the ground that snuck through the infield with the runners in motion. The RBI single tied the score and stopped the longest stretch of Carlson’s career without an RBI at 24 games (dating back to last season).
“You’re just competing,” Carlson said. “I saw a lot of pitches. I saw pretty much everything he had. I worked it to 3-2 and just got the bat on the ball and found a hole. (I was) fortunate that we were running on the play and was able to find a hole.
“We got a run in, and it worked out for us. I’m definitely grateful. I’m glad it got through. I’m glad we were able to tie it up and eventually take advantage of it.”
The score remained tied heading into the bottom of the eighth. The Cardinals put the first two batters of the inning on base against Rockies right-handed reliever Matt Carasiti thanks to a Nolan Gorman walk and a single by Herrera.
Speedy outfielder Michael Siani pinch ran for Gorman, representing the go-ahead run. Then Rockies outfielder Michael Toglia made a sliding catch on Matt Carpenter’s sinking line drive to left field for the first out of the inning.
That passed the baton to Donovan, who lined a single to center field. Rockies center fielder Brenton Doyle fielded and quickly fired an incredibly strong and accurate one-hop throw to the plate with Siani attempting to score from second base.
Doyle’s throw and catcher Elias Diaz’s tag came within a split second of beating Siani to the plate.
“It was hit to the exact guy we didn’t want it hit to because he has an absolute cannon,” Marmol said. “Our hope was, if we’re going to have a shot, it’s going to be Siani there. We have the flexibility of Donnie going to second and still finishing that game. We took our shot. Thankfully, it worked. And we were able to tack on a couple more and bring Helsley in.”
Donovan advanced to second base on Doyle’s throw to the plate, and Herrera went to third base. That brought Carlson to the plate for another matchup against a right-handed reliever.
This time, Carlson hit a forkball from Carasiti on the ground inside the first base bag and down the right field line for a two-run double. That gave Carlson his first extra-base hit of the season.
“It’s been a while,” Carlson said with a chuckle, when asked what he was thinking after that double. “But no, it was just nice to come through for the team, extend the lead a little bit and give us a chance to bring (Ryan) Helsley in and finish it off.”
Helsley pitched a scoreless ninth inning to record his MLB-leading 21st save of the season.
Carlson’s success at the plate potentially carries significance that stretches beyond one win.
A former highly-rated prospect, Carlson enjoyed a breakout type season in 2021. He slashed .266/.343/.437 with 18 home runs and 65 RBIs in 149 games. He's dealt with a witches' brew of injury and inconsistency in the subsequent seasons.
This winter, Carlson came into spring training camp slated as the club’s fourth outfielder after ankle surgery last fall. He'd devoted a lot of his offseason focus to retooling his swing, and he showed marked improvement in the exhibition season.
With projected starting center fielder Tommy Edman slow to recover from offseason surgery, Carlson won the starting center field job in spring training.
However, Carlson sustained a left shoulder AC sprain in an outfield collision with Jordan Walker during the second-to-last exhibition game.
Carlson missed the first 33 games of the regular season. He returned from the IL in early May, but he has struggled. Carlson entered the day batting .128.
“He put in a lot of work leading into spring to get just quicker and increase his bat speed,” Marmol said. “He put in real work there all offseason. He came back and there was a noticeable difference in how he was impacting the ball from the left side and right side.
“He has the injury, and it’s a setback in being able to continue that program because it’s a heavy workload of swings at high intensity which he couldn’t really continue. He was just trying to get healthy enough to get back into games. That progression has started again, and our hope is we continue to see it carry into the game as far as him being able to have the intent of swing be there. But that’s not going to be an overnight thing, and he knows that.”
Cardinals prospect Thomas Saggese gets regular shortstop reps, looks for breakout at plate
Listen now and subscribe: |
The slump Cardinals infield prospect Thomas Saggese experienced in the batter’s box during the second month of his first full season with Class AAA Memphis was not new to him.
The 22-year-old recalls being in similar spots before. He recalls what happened once he broke out of them.
“In High-A, I remember times where I was like, ‘Oh my gosh, I don’t have a chance to get the big leagues,’ and then I finished that season hitting .300,” Saggese told the Post-Dispatch during a recent interview in Memphis, Tennessee. “And last year, I remember thinking, ‘Wow, this is a tough start to the year and I’m really struggling,’ and then I won the MVP of the League, which is crazy to think about that.”
A 2020 draft pick of the Texas Rangers and a Cardinals trade deadline acquisition last July, Saggese batted .232 with a .293 on-base percentage through his first 18 games in 2022 before he ended that season with a .306 average in 103 games between High-A and Double-A. The next year, Saggese went from batting .203 in his first 15 games with Double-A Frisco to posting career highs in doubles, homers, and OPS to earn himself Texas League MVP honors after being traded from Texas to Ƶ that summer.
Coming off a 25-game stretch in May that included a .211 average and 24 strikeouts in 95 at-bats, the infield prospect feels his past slumps give him moments to “lean on” as he looks for consistent offensive results.
“I think that’s primarily on me and not really the pitching,” Saggese said. “I think I’m underperforming for sure. … I wouldn’t say I’m getting pitched tough or anything. I think I’m capable of however I’m getting pitched of doing damage. That hasn’t been so much so the case recently.”
The Cardinals’ top infield prospect entered Friday with a .224 average, seven home runs, and a .685 OPS in 52 games for Triple-A Memphis. He opened the year batting .255 with a 36% hard-hit rate in his first 39 games but has since hit .128 with a 28.2% hard-hit rate in his previous 13 games entering Friday, per Statcast.
“Swing wise, he’s fine,” Memphis hitting coach Howie Clark said recently during an interview in Memphis. “He just gets in trouble when he expands because I think he’s been able to cover quite a bit of the zone and I think some teams have been taking a little advantage of his aggressiveness or over-aggressiveness. When you see him be a little bit more disciplined around the edges and force them to throw strikes, I mean he really hits the ball hard.”
As a non-roster invitee to Cardinals big league camp this past spring, Saggese displayed the results his approach could yield. Saggese played in 23 Grapefruit League games and hit .300 with a .364 on-base percentage, three doubles, one home run and 11 RBIs. Saggese did not make his first opening day roster in his first chance as a non-roster invitee but remained in big league camp through the Cardinals’ final spring training game.
The 22-year-old described his first full big-league spring as eye-opening as he shared a clubhouse and the field with veteran major leaguers like Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt while also getting a feel for where he is on his track to the majors.
“That I’m not that far away,” Saggese said. “I have work to do and there’s things I need to improve on and things I need to get better at and grow in and learn myself. But my work ethic is there. It’s just a matter of time before everything comes together and I get more experience. … I was holding my own in spring training.”
After splitting most of his time on defense between third base and shortstop during Grapefruit League games, Saggese opened the minor league season as Memphis’s starting shortstop and has started there in 34 of his 52 games. He began Friday with a .955 fielding percentage and seven errors in 293 2/3 innings at that position.
The utility infielder entered his first full season in the Cardinals system having started at shortstop in 37 games across three seasons in pro ball as he stuck mostly to second and third base. His time at shortstop has increased as fellow infield prospect Cesar Prieto remains at third and second base while Jose Fermin has bounced between shortstop and second base and between the majors and minors.
Saggese credited the defensive routine he developed last year as one of the areas that’s been part of his growth. The 22-year-old said part of his infield drills focuses on short hop progressions and are similar to the ones Angels manager Ron Washington popularized during his time as a third base coach with the Braves.
Playing primarily one spot on the infield is a process Saggese said he’s enjoyed, and one that has brought some consistency on defense as he looks for consistent results in the batter’s box.
“Some days it’s nice to mix it up, but it’s nice to be consistent at one spot and just get all your work done there,” he said. “I think it’s harder to go from spot to spot, which is an advantage for me, maybe if I’m able to do that well to go from spot to spot just because that’s a hard thing and I think a valuable thing. It’s give and take. It’s a good thing for me for value and as a player. But if it’s possible to stay in one spot, that’s, that’s ideally what you want.”