Greetings. If it's Monday, it's Cardinals Chat Day here at StlToday.
The local nine are fresh off a stretch of going 4-0-1 in series that included visits to Milwaukee, Minnesota, and the Bronx, and then they came home and dropped a series to Seattle. Attendance remains a topic if discussion, though all of the giveaways and events of the past weekend did fill the ballpark. Let's see how the weekdays draw.
The Cardinals have a question they must answer in the next 48 hours about their rotation. I'm sure you have a few questions in the next 4-8 hours about the rotation, too.
Enough prelude.
Into the fray!
As always, there is a real-time transcription of the chat below this window. Questions are not edited for spelling or grammar, but they are ignored for vulgar content. Answers, let's hope, are edited for spelling and grammar, though typing fast to keep the conversation going comes with some hiccups.
Joe B: The Cardinals had a ton of 40-man "churn" last winter. Do you expect something similar after this season ends?
DG: Sure. That's pretty annual, and I've been fascinating since last offseason about how the Cardinals wired this roster for a quick reset. What do I mean by that? Well, look at the contracts that are expiring within the next 13 months. The Cardinals signed two starters with options for 2025 that they can just walk away from. They have added relievers who are free agents at season's end. They have one year remaining of control for Helsley, Mikolas, and Matz, just to name two. Goldschmidt's contract is done. That is right there eight members of the 40-man roster all with major-league experience and most with notable roles this season that the Cardinals can quickly move on from, either by just not taking an option, not re-signing, or trading with minimal commitment from the new team. That is a fascinating part of this for the Cardinals -- how quickly they can just move on. It's a roster wired for a reboot or repeat, and it sure seems like that was the plan.
Ron: It's time to see what the young pitchers has. Miklos isn't the answer. Plan for 2025
DG: This is a disconnect between the fans and the team at the moment, and maybe even a little bit between the transactions at the standings. The team and the manager are keeping the notion of contention alive and suggesting that they can still pull off the incredible. Loitering around the 5 games out will do that. Meanwhile, many of the comments I get from the most vocal fans are exactly like this one -- move on, tired of 2024, plan for 2025, see the young players, etc., etc, just like last year. And at the same time the transactions are sending a bit of a mixed message. Shawn Armstrong should would have helped win at least one game recently, but he had no role for '25 and was moved off the roster to make room for a young right-hander and save some salary at the same time. Yet, the Cardinals will bring back Lance Lynn to the rotation this week. This disconnect is real between the team and a vocal group of fans. But it's not unusual as the team has to play the standings as of today, and fans can see what they feel are the inevitable standings ahead.
Jack: Why is McGreevy not getting an extended look in the major leagues?
DG: You're not going to like their answer, and I touched on it above. The Cardinals feel they have been options right now while their focus remains on '24. They're not moving on from this season, even if some fans are.
Craig: Hi Derrick, with all the expiring contracts in mind, what do you think the Cardinals intend to do, go young internally or upgrade via free agency?
DG: What they intend to do will be clearer coming out of the season. They're working through a variety of scenarios, for sure, but they have a lot of questions to answer about who will be making those calls and what kind of team they aim to build for 2025. Those conversations are just going to get going in earnest once this season is done, and that is especially true if they have all October to fill with conversations instead of competition.
What they need to do is ... both.
They need additions through both avenues there -- internally, free agency, and I'll add a third .. trade. The bat it sure seems like they need to add for 2025 is more likely to come via trade. That's the initial look at the market. It could change. But trade seems like the best route to explore.
Chico: Would the Cardinals be better off getting an ace type pitcher,so Gray can slot in at #2,and go from there,or to get a big bopper for the outfield?
DG: Great question, especially the framing of it. As I'm reading the question, it seems like one that is going to be "yep, yes, of course" and then you add that twist at the end. Well done. The answer sure seems like the bat. A tentpole bat -- or "big bopper," as you put it -- would be the more substantive change to the team at this point. As long as the rotation is not ignored and the Cardinals only count on players from the organization to fill in those innings.
Please see poll in the above window for how chatters answered the question.
JW Help: The Cardinals keep making strange roster decisions. Why carry 4 first baseman and not a backup shortstop.
DG: They have a backup shortstop in Fermin on the roster. I'm looking at the roster and I see three first baseman, one of whom also starts regularly in the outfield: Goldschmidt, Baker, and Burleson. If you're including Matt Carpenter, consider he played 3B to close out Sunday's game and with Brendan Donovan injured he was about to be the second baseman for a few innings. So, they at least see him as more versatile than first base. As for your more global, bigger, 30,000-foot question -- this is a matchup roster now. The bigger debate should be were they too late to become. Might just be me -- and the manager pushed back when I brought this up a few times -- but there seemed to be a clear spot and need for Baker when they were facing that run of left-handed starters. They opted not to promote then for the role he has now.
JoJo Disco: Can you provide any insight to the variance in the home/road splits of the starting rotation (the staff average is 1.64 runs), specifically why most of the staff gets clobbered in pitcher-friendly Busch and why Gray is so atrocious on the road? Gibson H: 4.78/ A: 3.65, Mikolas H: 6.54/A: 4.65, Pallante H: 4.66/A: 3.49, Gray H:2.63/A: 5.20, and Lynn H:3.43/A:4.81
DG: Not as much insight as I would like. I find it the Cardinals' performance at home this season fascinating, but drilling down into it -- either by asking around, questions, discussion, or even pulling apart the stats off it -- has yet to reveal some greater truth or even some footholds for the conversation. I'd like to write more about it. There was a time when I even tried to hinge a few game stories on this topic because it sure seemed like the Cardinals were not at their best for the home crowd, and then just pulling up the evidence -- some was anecdotal, some was fleeting. I still it's worth exploring there and you've offered some interesting numbers to go with it. Gray giving up home runs on the road is the answer to his splits, and not at home. No surprise. Look at where he had the big-homer games (Atlanta, Cincinnati) and those ballparks are known as hitter havens, for sure. Pallante's sure seems to be just a coincidence of the schedule. He drew Pittsburgh twice on the road and then a handful of playoff-caliber teams at home. Not much you can do about that.
Mitchell: I see that Lynn is the starter for Wednesday? Is there a reason they would go with Lynn and not give one of the young arms in triple A a shot? Are they wanting to see if they are going to pick up his option at the end of the year?
DG: Yes, as mentioned above: They've paid Lance Lynn to be a starter for them this season and felt going into the year he would be part of a team that is contending. They are not pulling the plug on the season as of today. That's their approach. That's their stance. I get the distinct that the fans are moving on from 2024 before the team is, and that, again, is not unusual. Fans get to enjoy if they pull off a miracle whether they move on today or not. If the team moves on, it assures a miracle won't happen.
BL: Hey DG, thanks as always - very much appreciate your insights. Enjoyed your conversation Adam McAhhlvey on this past week's BPIB, great stuff. The conversation of how the envied "Cardinal Way" is now the "Brewer Way" is both frustrating as a fan, and affirming. While there is obviously lots to point at in the "how did we get here" discussion, the Carpenter portion of the conversation is perhaps most frustrating - while they shouldn't have been caught flat footed and fallen behind on the technological aspect of player development - and that alone should be reason for questioning those in charge as to what happened - ownership/management should really have their feet held to the fire when it comes to the dismissal/disregarding of not just instructors in general (not having a robust instructional staff also damming), but especially so for guys like Carpenter that they cast aside who are the most direct historical connection for those who paved the "Cardinal Way" before them. Just mind boggling that they were so short sighted and penny pinching when it came to tech enhancements, but especially those instructors.
DG: Indeed.
If you're interested in listening to the most recent BPIB that features a long discussion about how the Brewers have outflanked the Cardinals as the class of the NL Central and whether the trait Milwaukee has had is even one the Cardinals can ever have ... well, that's available here.
DCG: As for ace vs bopper, I think you have to read the larger trends in the game. It seems to me that hitting is at a premium now as runs are way down, so I'd want a hitter. Those are in scarcer supply. Add to that that most of the Cardinals prospects who seem MLB ready are pitchers, and I think a bat is the way to go.
DG: An entirely fair way to go about -- and the most compelling argument you made is right there when you talk about the larger game and the lack of offense in it. We can debate whether that is the case with the Cardinals' farm system.
Ryan V: Hey Derrick, I'd give a little pushback on your notion that playing guys like McGreevy is "moving on from 2024." While there's some truth to that, I'd argue that we already know what players like Lynn/Matz give, and it's not very much at this point. I'd make the case that some fans believe that younger guys with higher upsides/more volatility are more valuable to give starts to than veteran pitchers that, quite frankly, just aren't very good anymore.
DG: I counted on a question/comeback like this. It's not my notion. Please refer back to the answer I gave and how the Cardinals have that viewpoint. Not me. I'm not making the call, and no amount of questions about that call is going to convince the Cardinals of another decision. (See: Baker, Luken.) So, it's not my notion. At all. It's their explanation.
Duffy in CT: Who is or are minor league pitchers likely to be on the '25 active roster?
DG: You're going to have to be more specific, please. In the near future, the future future, the coming season, the coming week ... if you could reposition or expand on the question, I could do more with it. If this is a question that is meant to invite the Quinn Mathews answer. OK. He'll be a factor for the team in 2025.
BL: This seems to go hand in hand with some of the BPIP discussion - instead of looking for the upside or just flexibility with a change in approach, they go with the guy they're paying to fill a spot.
DG: That's not unusual. All 30 teams will go with the guy they paid to do the job. That's part of why they hire him. Using him for that job is just fulfilling the reason they signed him. They want a return on that investment. And you can see example of this over and over and over and over and over and over again with all teams, even the Dodgers, who have greater resources and willingness to paper-over mistakes or poor performances.
Ryan: In the offseason, would Gray get 2 yrs/$60Mil on the open market?
DG: Absolutely, if that's the length of deal he wanted. He'd find a team to do that, for sure. Short deal like that? Some of the familiar teams would all line up.
Ken: As you have mentioned before Derrick ( or maybe Ben Fred ) the organization needs to figure out why so many players succeed when they leave. There is a very good ex- Cardinals team out there . So changes have started with GL retiring . What other changes do you see before the new season ?
DG: Cardinals need to figure out why the players they kept instead of the players who left don't perform like the players who left. That seems like a more pertinent answer then ruminating over the spilt milk, etc., etc. That's all been done. I've contributed to it. But the bigger question facing the Cardinals is why the players they kept aren't performing like the team expected. The conversation looks a lot different if Gorman is having a Garcia-type year, if Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, and Alec Burleson are outperforming an outfield of Lane Thomas, Randy Arozarena, and Tyler O'Neill. Not a whole lot of questions about why Paul DeJong is helping KC contend, and I bet that has a lot to do with Masyn Winn's assertive season at shortstop and how well he's played. Time to shift the question from the ones who got away, to the ones who stayed.
Ryan V: Hey Derrick, thanks as always for the chats! Let's get right to it, what is there to be done with Mikolas? By most metric, he's been a bottom-3, if not the worst, starting pitcher in baseball going on two seasons now. But the Cardinals have also committed to his contractually for another year. He doesn't 'eat' innings, he doesn't put the team in a position to win and, since he's 36, there's little reason to think he's part of the long-term future. I'm just at a loss on what he exactly does for this team now and into the future.
DG: A pending conversation for the Cardinals is what to do with the rotation after Lance Lynn's return. It would not be a surprise if they bake-in some adjustment for Mikolas, whether that's added time off or something else. They have Lynn and Matz there to tag in, and all indications are they intend to give Pallante the chance to finish the season like he's earned -- as one of the starters. A roster move is coming up here Wednesday to activate Lynn, and they'll need to either have an IL reason or subtract from the bullpen. Which means subtracting from the safety net. Look for that move to be telling.
chico: Do you think Pallente has done enough to earn a spot in rotation next year? Where would he be in rotation,a #3,4,or 5?
DG: Depends entirely on the Cardinals' decisions and moves all around him. He has earned the right to be in competition and even to be part of their decisions when it comes to signing, options, trades, etc. But if the opportunity to upgrade the rotation and that means five starters better than him ... that sure seems like a pretty good rotation at this point. Hard to guarantee anything about 2025 at this point in 2024 with these Cardinals.
Mark: Hi Derrick, As a lifelong Bills fan, I can tell you from painful experience that when the fanbase sees no valid chance at a championship that the enthusiasm goes down and apathy is rampant. Do you think ownership really sees this and has the "gumption" to fix it? Or do they believe the fanbase is locked in and repeats of this last offseason will make everyone happy again?
DG: They see the empty seats. They sense the frustration. They are aware of it. It's hard to miss. Do they doom-scroll through Xwitter for the latest anger? No. Do they see the no-shows and revenue reports and read the media coverage? Absolutely. They are aware.
We'll see if they have the "gumption." That might entirely depend on how you view that, not me or them. Gumption is in the eye of the beholder.
Here's what is clear: For years, fans on social media and even in this chat have promised to not show up, to not buy tickets, to show their anger, and each and every time I've encouraged consumer activism. It is a power that fans have. Use your entertainment dollar elsewhere. Send that message. And most years such threats don't manifest. The Cardinals have high TV ratings. They rank high in tickets sold. Big talk on social media doesn't lead to change in the ballpark. Until this year. This year, for sure, a message is being sent and landing. A cap tip to the fans who are practicing consumer activism and insisting the Cardinals do more to live up to their brand, their promise to their fan base and to their history.
CrampyCrampaneris: I was stunned to see during the recent Brewers series the lack of attendance. A first-place team, they're drawing current Busch-level attendance. Good grief. I'm sad about the state of the Birds. But Milwaukee blew me away. Sorry, but Mikolas is done. That can't go on. Fans and teammates deserve better. Comes a time...
DG: The Cardinals' visit to Milwaukee coincided with the first day of school in that area. So fans at Labor Day off (sellout) and then two night games that came with many families in the area getting their kids back to school. Believe it or not that's a huge factor. Yes, it's worth noting they didn't back the house and were at 20K each night -- which, school or not, would make headlines here. But hopefully that gives you context.
Capstone: What are the structural and systemic issues Cards must address in off-season to get past mushy, middling, near mediocrity (by their own lofty standards): under-investing in development after 2020 Covid; hitching with stingy Marlins on building pitching and hitting labs; under-performance in Latin and Asian markets (even knowing they won't be that attractive even iwth high contracts to many Asian players). Cards have many fine players, but no longer have difference makers. Fans are not expecting another Pujols but want to see players they keep prosper, not falter -- that seems a leadership and management failure at a corporate level. Too harsh?
DG: Not really, no. I'm glad that you phrased it the way you did about "not expecting another Pujols." That adds a layer of fairness to your rundown that I think is important. I might dial back the description of the international markets, but you could make the argument either way based on the evidence.
Jon: With Gray, Fedde, Mikolas, and Matz under contract for next year and team options on Gibson and Lynn, can you envision a scenario where the Cardinals decline those options, move on from Matz, and fill those final 2 rotation spots with a high caliber pitcher and a mix of Pallante/Mathews/McGreevy?
In an entirely other scenario, what would it take for the Cardinals to move on from Mikolas?
DG: I will repeat here what I said on the radio recently, since it's only fair. I try to stay consistent. I won't write here what I wouldn't write for the paper, won't tweet what I wouldn't expect my name to be attached to, and so on even with interviews on the radio. (Sometimes I'm asked my opinion there, and I do my best to offer it, when here and in print, it's my role to find explanations, not substitute my opinion for them.) So here goes ...
If the Cardinals decline Kyle Gibson's option without a clear explanation on why he's not a fit or concerns of his future performance, then that move is a clear sign of a financial move. Full stop. What Gibson has done for the rotation and how valuable he has immediately been in the clubhouse, is clear to anyone watching or around the team. If they pivot from last year wanting to add leadership to this year letting such leadership go without a clear explanation, then it's impossible to see it as anything other than cutting payroll at the expense of the team.
It's more likely the Cardinals count on Pallante, open one spot for competition, see if there's a free agent to fill there late in the marketplace, and yes they'll have to see what options are out there for Mikolas and if a move would be mutually beneficial.
Mo is fill of it: Who is or are minor league pitchers likely to be on… more
isn't the rosters now 26 and when playing a DHH 27 ?
DG: Rosters are now 28 in September, 29 when playing a doubleheader if both teams can get a player in and it's up to the home team to decide if it's 29th player for both games or just one. They are 26 through the rest of the season, 27 when playing a doubleheader.
Ryan: In the offseason, would Matz receive a 1yr/$12Mil deal?
DG: Absolutely.
(Even as a reliever he would.)
CO Redbird: I can't speak for Duffy, but when I see '25 I think of that as short for 2025.
DG: Noted.
Joe 99: Given that some money may clear up in the next year or two, do you see the Cardinals FINALLY going after a big name FA? Who might be availabe on the FA market in the next 2 years?
DG: I would ask the questions in reverse order to arrive at an answer. So, let's start there.
These are by no means a comprehensive list, but they are a snapshot of the free-agent markets ahead.
2024-25: Pete Alonso, Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Alex Bregman, Willy Adames, Juan Soto, Teoscar Hernandez, Gerrit Cole, Blake Snell, Shane Bieber, Corbin Burnes.
2025-24: J.T. Realmuto, Salvador Perez, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, Kodai Senga.
I included players who have options and opt-outs, just for the sake of give you a sense of the market. The team, when presented with this notion of "finally" going after a big name pushes back that they did sign Sonny Gray, runnerup to the AL Cy Young Award. Trust me, I've presented that question and had that push back.
Your question on whether they will spend has to start with who is available, and the above gives that sense. Now will they spend? That could be relative. They're not going to break from character and make the big bid on Soto. But you look at those available starters -- and there is the chance for the Cardinals to shift from past approaches, build on their pursuit and offer to Gray, and get one of those players, for sure. Bid for Pete Alonso? I don't think that's a non-starter for the Cardinals. It would be wild if Anthony Rizzo is the Cardinals' 1B at the end of winter, but there's a non-zero chance of that, too. But really looking at the markets -- and this builds on something mentioned earlier in the chat -- the spending is there on starters, and the Cardinals are slowly inching up on that market, and there's moves to be had that are just beyond their usual puke point. Sure seems likely they'll stretch if they intend to contend.
Bboy Bird: In light of the BPIB discussion, why did the team go so cheap on coaching/development? Did they really lose that much during the pandemic? Paying coaches is way cheaper than the FA market (at which they're terrible), and DeWitt has always wanted to be a draft/develop organization. So how'd they let that slide? Thanks!
DG: The short answer is yes. They have not filled out the staff from pandemic cutbacks. They are back to full staff elsewhere in the business, like with ticket sales/group sales, etc. But on the baseball side, there are roles that they just did not fill again. There really hasn't been a field coordinator like Mark DeJohn, since he retired. And that was pre-pandemic. Jose Oquendo has done some (maybe even much!) of that role, but not in that title. They haven't expanded their coaching staff for catchers. They were already behind when it comes to pitching instruction when compared to other teams. At one point, a team like the Dodgers had a pitching role at every level that the Cardinals only had for their entire minor-league system. There are many examples of where the Cardinals' infrastructure has been lacking and how the pandemic only slowed their progress or even reduced staff in areas. This is why some in the organization were so vocal when Chris Carpenter left, and that was just one example they latched onto.
Amir: Zack Thompson's velocity seems to have returned after a noticeable decrease to start the season. If he maintains this, is it possible for him to regain his status and place on the depth chart that he had entering 2024? Haven't heard much about him since his demotion, would be disappointing to see the team move on from him when he's shown glimpses of being capable at this level
DG: It is indeed. There is a place for Thompson in the majors, and at his best it's possible to see how he'll contribute in a significant way.
BL: I'm curious with the LaRocque retirement news - I think when Chaim Bloom was brought on, most thought of him as a possible successor to Mozeliak, myself included. Any chance, given what's been reported on his involvement of the system top to bottom, he would be tapped to fill that role, especially when the outward stance is Mo is going to finish his contract as POBO? Any further insights to the inner workings at play there, internal vs external and who those internal options may be?
DG: A lot -- and please stress that -- a lot will depend on the role that Chaim Bloom wants to play. That doesn't get mentioned enough in questions about him. What role does he want to have? This year, he did not want to be part of the day-to-day grind of ops and roster management. He wanted the overlook role, the audit, the advice given, but not the daily demands. Does he want to return to that? Is his calling more in the minor-league development role? That is a question the Cardinals will ask before moving forward with how their leadership looks through this offseason and into it. You ask is there a chance? There is a chance if that is what Bloom prefers, what he seeks for his return to full-time baseball operations. And, as you can imagine, his family, based in Boston, is a factor, too.
Aaron Knopf: If the Cards wanted to keep Gibson, do you think Fedde could be traded again in the offseason? If Fedde is traded , Lynn’s option isn‘t picked up, and Matz is traded or goes to the pen, the team could go with Gray, Gibson, Pallante, Matthews/Thompson/McGreavy, and Mikolas. I wouldn’t have included Mikolas in the rotation if I believed some other team would take him, but I don’t see how that happens, and I don’t see the Cards eating that contract.
DG: He could be. I'm not sure why they would though. Fedde can be a real valuable part of the roster. He can start. He doesn't have a huge salary, so if he relieves, he's still a contributor without capsizing spending elsewhere. He's just a real solid option to have around and if he's as good as he was this year for the Sox then he's part of a strong rotation. I'm not sure why you'd trade a player who can help in so many ways.
Craig: Maybe I'm missing something, but does the Armstrong trade (then release) for Carlson make any sense at all? It sure appears the Cards no longer know what they are doing.
DG: It does not make much sense, no.
A quick note: The Cubs claimed him off waivers. So they now have him for a playoff push, if they pull one off, just like the Cardinals are trying to do.
Let's recap. The Cardinals traded Marco Gonzales (a first-round pick) for Tyler O'Neill, and since then they've traded O'Neill for two pitchers from Boston, Lane Thomas for Jon Lester, and Dylan Carlson for Shawn Armstrong. That's three outfielders and two first-round picks that they've traded for ... well, now only one pitcher in their system and Victor Santos has a 5.84 ERA as a reliever/swingman in Class AAA. Meanwhile, Washington traded Thomas to Cleveland for two of the Guardians' top 23 prospects and an infielder who is hitting .300 in the majors. That said, the Cardinals did get Cubs favorite Lester's 200th career win and he was a big part of saving that rotation late in the season.
Alan: And i suppose a follow up to my question about offseason trade targets, is this the right FO to trust to make such a trade?
DG: That is for the beholder and ownership to decide. I would imagine some will, some won't, and ownership is going to make its call at the end of this season.
Bryan C: The first year Miles Mikolas came back to the big leagues he won 18 games with a ERA of 2.83. He has only had one season with a ERA under 4.00 since then. He has not had a winning season since his first year back. Erick Fedde had a great start to this season. This is his first season back. Fedde has never had a winning record,7 wins is his best. His best ERA is 4.29. This is his first season back. With the W. Sox he had 7 wins and a ERA of 3.11. Since joining the Cardinals he is 1 & 5 with a ERA of 4.30. Why should we think Fedde is not the next Mikolis?
DG: Oh, you're not going to like my answer at all. I can already tell. You're going to really really really dislike my answer.
Should I give us both a few minutes to get ready for this?
Let's start with this: Erick Fedde won seven games with the White Sox when the White Sox had only won 27 games. That's a remarkable number to show how well he pitched for a team that was historically awful, no good, very bad. Fedde defied how poor the Sox are as a team with how well he pitched. I think wins are a lousy metric to use when it comes to looking at a pitcher's performance. They're fine if we're talking about description -- they tell me how deep into the game he went, and tell me if he left the game with a lead (but that lead could be 7-5 or 1-0 or 11-9, not guaranteed to be reflective of how well he pitched).With that out of the way, here's the part you won't like at all.
If Fedde is the next Mikolas for the Cardinals, then the Cardinals are in a good spot -- given Fedde's salary, given what a contending rotation needs, and given what Mikolas did at around the same age (back to back seasons of 200 innings, one season of performance 18% better than average, one at 9% less than average). If Fedde is the next Mikolas, the Cardinals will have to upgrade their rotation ahead of him, but they're in a good spot then to contend with him, and you might even be happy he's there, representing the Cardinals as an All-Star, as Mikolas did.
Jay Lewis: C'mon Derrick the suspense is killing me.
DG: Hope it was worth the wait.
It probably wasn't. But here we are.
Jojo Disco: T or F: cards need more wire-to-wire talent that can be relied on to play at a consistent levelfor a full season?
DG: That is true for every team. The season is long. Few teams get wire-to-wire talent. Every team needs its stars to be stars. And so on and so on. So, yes, of course that is true.
Ed AuBuchon: Mr. DeWitt Jr. is in town for the Cardinal HOF inductions. Do you know if they are having meetings with Mo about the plan going forward yet?
DG: They've have those all the time. They don't need to be in the same city to do it. DeWitt is very involved in the direction of the team, as you know, and is in constant contact with baseball operations about scenarios for the direction they could go. Have they made decisions? Not likely -- because there are games and things yet to happen this season. But have they workshopped what direction things are going to go, absolutely. Look no further than this: LaRocque's retirement came just before Hall of Fame weekend. DeWitt was involved in that -- and what direction it signals they're going to head with development.
Bobo's Pet Monkey: In a time where organizations are throwing around $1B in free agent money in a single offseason, it's wild to think that Wilson Contreras's $87M contract is the largest ever given to a FA player coming in from another organization. You have talked in recent years about the organization readdressing the market and what it means to make a competitive offer for free agents. Is your read that the organization has reconsidered the pitching and hitting markets, or is their willingness to give out 9-figure contracts limited to pitching because that's the area the organization has struggled to develop from within?
DG: The nine-figure deals they have completed -- either free agent or extension belong to position players. So, I'm not sure of the example you're giving here. But I'll do my best to address the larger topic on whether the Cardinals are updating their view of the market so that they can play a part in it. Short answer: Yes. We saw this with Sonny Gray. They definitely got creative with his deal, but in the coming years Gray will make the market value for a pitcher. He's going to be a $30-million pitcher on the payroll. That's market freight. Contreras' deal actually looks better given the current market, but it does signal the Cardinals were willing to go high on the offer to a free agent to avoid the cost of a trade. That dilemma isn't going to change even as the names do this winter. And going back to 2015-16 the Cardinals offered a nine-figure deal to a defense-first position player. If anything, they've been far closer to the market demands on position players than they have been on pitching because of its volatility and risk. But in both cases they're inching toward making competitive offers. Two have been accepted. This winter will require another stretch. That's the open market.
JavierFan: Good Afternoon! Hope all is well at the PD. Thanks for the continued ability to ask questions. Always enjoy reading your comments. I have been wondering since they let Pham go if the FO or ownership or both determined that making he playoffs was not to be this year. The reason that I ask is that the comment made when they let him go was so that he could catch on with a team that was likely to make the playoffs, or something along those lines. Am I way off base or somewhere in between? Thanks!
DG: Great question and definitely hits at the discussion we had earlier about the disconnect. I should have used the Pham move as an example. And I'm glad you did. Before getting to your specific example, I can completely see why the actions seem to be saying all of this at once:
The clubhouse still aims to contend until the last spark of math is gone from the standings.
The vocal fans want to move on, get going on the next season, done with this one.
The front office's actions suggest they want both -- to move on (young reliever), to cut cost (Armstrong), and to contend (rotation decisions).
Now, specifically, with Pham it wasn't entirely about moving up the standings -- though that was really appealing. Pham also wanted more playing time, and it became apparent to him and the Cardinals that he was not going to get it as the sometimes-vs-lefties outfielder that they acquired him to be. He felt he could change that and did for a bit as an everyday player, but then that did not give the Cardinals the bench they wanted, the bench they imagined coming out of the trade deadline. So, the fit was suddenly off, and Pham wanted to play more, so they gave him that chance to find it elsewhere.
Aaron Knopf: I appreciate the feedback. I never thought about him as a stabilizing bullpen arm if the Cards wanted more youth in the rotation. That makes sense. No need to post this—just saying thanks.
DG: Happy to help. Thanks for getting back to me, and I hope most answers can provide a look, a nuance, a detail to consider.
Jim from DeBary FL: Whither Yadier Molina? Still trying to understand his status. It seems he might have been a huge help to the catching and pitching staff.
DG: Let's try to break this down. He and the Cardinals discussed a variety of roles he could have with them in 2024. They discussed being part of the coaching staff. He was not sure he could make that time commitment, and he had some family considerations to make as well as the time he wanted to spend with his basketball team and his son's baseball team. So they came up with a role that would have less of a time commitment, and the team suggested it would work around Molina's preferred schedule to have him spend some time with the organization, some with the majors but mostly in the minors. Turns out with his schedule and some family considerations, concerns, and commitments, he and the Cardinals did not finalize the dates he would do those things, and they did not happen as a result.
Jeremy: Mr. Goold - I'm thinking about taking my kids early when gates open. What time do the visitors usually end batting practice, and are players typically signing before the game?
DG: You're looking at them being down about an hour before first pitch, or thereabouts, maybe a bit before the hour if there are only a few groups of hitters batting at this time of year. Yes, some players make it a point to sign before the game -- though that will be closer to the first pitch as they emerge from the dugout to begin stretching etc. There are several Cardinals who set aside time to sign during series. It's not always consistent where they do that but know that they stretch in right field for home games so they'll cross by the fans on that side of the dugout, for sure.
South City Steve: Mo having 1-year left on his contract shouldn't stop DeWitt from doing what is best for this organization. And by best for this organization, I do not mean what makes his life easiest because that would clearly be retaining Mo as we have seen over the last 9 seasons of this slow decline. Change isn't easy for anyone but it is time and one more year could do irreparable harm to DeWitt's investment.
DG: Gary LaRocque had a year remaining on his contract and the Cardinals and him made a decision. Mike Shildt had a year remaining on his contract when he was fired. Mike Matheny had at least that much. So, yeah ... contracts are a guarantee of money, not years.
chico: If the season ended today and tomorrow started free agency,is there one player that you think they would or should go after?
DG: OK, I'll bite at the question: Corbin Burnes.
Jojo Disco: How much consideration will be given to hiring a POBO/GM who is not afraid to work with a veteran manager who may be more accomplished and as a result demanding?
DG: Is this a sneaky way to express that you would like a new manager? Why not just say it?
SE Steve: Hi Derrick, your SE Colorado fan here. I am thinking about going to game at end of Sept in Denver. Tickets under $60 behind home plate. What do you think? Will I be watching two teams working on off season plans, or Coors field torching of pitching?
DG: Probably a mix of both. Might see Helsley take aim at a club record, though.
Bobo's Pet Monkey: Your description of why Pham was let go only makes the organization's approach at the trade deadline look even worse. Shouldn't the team have known whether Pham would have been willing to settle as a bench match-up bat before trading for him? It's not like the team should have been surprised that Tommy would have a strong opinion about what his role should be on a team.
DG: Maybe. They couldn't tell the future, and if they went on a winning streak and held onto the playoff spot, then you're looking at a far different scenario for both player and team. Also, it was a trade. So it's not like the Cardinals are reaching out to Tommy Pham before the deal and saying here's our plan will you be interested in the trade to STL ahead of LA or Atlanta? That's just not how trades work when there is not a no-trade clause involved. He was traded to a team that had a plan, that had an idea of how it would work, and that had a grip on a playoff spot. All of those things changed in the month that followed, and so did Pham's interest in staying. Neither Pham nor the Cardinals had the information at the trade deadline that they had three weeks later. So of course it looks different.
Capstone: Let's assume Cards bring back Goldy on an incentives based deal. Would they have a Burleson/Goldy platoon, what to do with Baker? Bring Carpenter back...for senior leadership (why can't he do that as a coach or is he that valuable to other teams as player); who backs up Arenado at third with some pop; and finally, Cards have no outfielders (unless Walker truly turns it around) with consistent power. If slugging is a key metric...Cards seem short of average. Addressing both pitching and power seems like a large task for this team and its budget.
DG: Ah, this is a bit more like the Pham scenario above than you probably expect. Why would Goldschmidt sign an incentive-laden deal to be in a platoon and thus immediately limit his chances to reach those incentives? He'll sign where he's got a chance to play, to be the starter at first, not the right-handed option unless that's how it unfolds due to performance during the season. That seems only fair and only likely and there will be teams that give him that chance. Nolan Gorman can be the backup at third, if you want. Yes, the Cardinals need more slug from the outfield. Could be where they see a spot at DH/OF to make a trade to get that slug.
Jay Lewis: How will it affect attracting a strong candidate for the minor league job, if the Cardinals don't improve the hitting/pitching labs and do not hire more on field staff to aid player development?
DG: There are only 30 of those jobs. If you're aspiring to have that job or you're looking to move into the lead of baseball ops where there are only 30 of those jobs, then it's more about what you can do to improve the team, and you don't pass up the opportunity that may never come again. Can be more selective if you have more offers. We'll see if the Cardinals go after someone who has other options. At this point, that's not a guarantee.
Ed AuBuchon: Did LaRocque retire because he wanted to or was it suggested. Thanks for the chat.
DG: They were going to make changes to baseball operations, according to knowledgeable people I've spoke to within the organization and outside of it, and they were going change player development. He's still going to be a part of that, but not in the same role. The Cardinals and LaRocque discussed how that would look, what options he had, and this is the direction both parties agreed was best.
Gale: Derrick appreciate your writing and knowledge of the game. If not for you and your past writers , probably would not be a subscriber. The Cardinals do not seem to have an upbeat
DG: Thank you for being a subscriber.
Dave: Hi Derrick, in response to the poll regarding the back to back losing seasons, Cardinals fans should share that fact with fans of most other teams. I live an an area with Orioles and Nationals fans, they are more impressed the Cardinals haven't had losing seasons in consecutive full seasons since the 50s than they are that the Orioles are playoff bound again. Me thinks this fan base is spoiled and lost perspective of how hard winning is...
DG: I am of a mind that the Cardinals dismiss that achievement as non essential at their peril. It's a part of the brand here. Part of the history. And having the first back to back losing seasons since the 1950s should be avoided -- as important for the closing weeks of the season even if they're mathematically eliminated from the playoffs before they know if they'll get to that 81st or 82nd win. I am eager to hear from fans on this, though.
Kevin in DC: Why haven’t they pitched McGreevy or even Graceffo again? They need major league experience. We all know the playoffs are lost.
DG: Here we are again with the theme of the chat developing. You know that. You feel that. The team does not. The players do not. They are still playing for the chance that a miracle happens because the only way they guarantee it won't is to stop playing for the miracle to happen. I get it. The math is against them. I get it. Fans want to move on, surrender to the season. But that's easier for fans than it is the manager, the players, the coaches. If the fans give up on this season, and the team pulls of a miracle, the fans get to enjoy it all the same. If the manager, players, coaches give up on the season and start planning for 2025, then they assure no miracle will take place. As a fan, don't you want them playing for purpose -- or did you really dig last year? That's not rhetorical.
Phil: Hey Derrick, I get that the Cards are far from the only team that plays "payroll politics" with roster construction and playing time. But am I wrong that the team's most successful manager of the past 35 years went the exact opposite way? Tony La Russa made a lot of folks (12-year old me included) unhappy by playing Royce Clayton over Ozzie Smith in his first year, and a decade later he benched a recovering-from-injury Scott Rolen to many folks' surprise. TLR wasn't afraid to make any move he thought would help the team win, no matter who it might upset. I know Mozeliak has shown that's not the energy he's going for in a manager, but why do we accept that the Cards are just "going to" pitch Mikolas simply because they're spending the money regardless?
DG: You're picking the anecdotes to fit your argument, and that's fine. Scott Rolen was benched during a playoff series with everything on the line, and that caused a rupture that was not really mended until both men met each other again as Hall of Famers. Also, it lasted what ... one game? two games? And then Rolen had a 10-game hitting streak to finish the postseason and could have been the World Series MVP. Not exactly an example of a salary being benched -- until, you recall, the front office stepped in with a trade.
You offered one other example, so let's see if I can come up with a few more on the other side of the ledger.
Kip Wells made 34 appearances, 26 starts with the Cardinals despite his 5.70 ERA because he was a major free-agent signing. ... That was 2007. Adam Kennedy was the other signee on that same day, and how did that turn out despite Kennedy getting 200 games with the Cardinals with subpar performance. There was Tino Martinez (though his stats were fine, OK, just not what you'd expect, and he was not thrilled as you know). There was Sidney Ponson getting 14 starts for a World Series-bound team to legitimize his contract. What luck that worked out the way it did for the '06 Cardinals.
I cannot stress this enough: I do not think it's most teams or most managers that play the contract. It's all teams and all managers because the contract is reflective of what they expect to get back -- and what teams do you know that are willing to admit early on that a contract didn't work out. Goodness, ownership doesn't want to hear in June of the first year that oops this guy isn't the $30-million pitcher we thought he was and we're not going to give him the innings to prove otherwise. If you were an owner, would you keep a front office that said our calculations were so far off on this guy that we're pulling the plug and not giving him a chance to be the player we signed?
Walt: Only one question I want to ask Mozeliak. Do you expect fans to continue to support the Cardinals when it has been consistently demonstrated that "Payroll Politics" are more important than winning?
DG: What kind of answer do you expect to get? I'm not sure it will satisfy you.
Ryan: What are the chances in the offseason we see a headline in the PD saying " Fedde looks to be the Savior " after he gets a new 4 year deal. That would be so the last 10 years of the STL Cardinal FO.
DG: That doesn't seem at all likely. Extensions like that would happen in spring training. And we don't write headlines like that -- definitely not with today's headline writing rules, structure, and requirements, and never before with words like "savior" that I can recall.
Kevin in DC: McGreevy pitched the best game of the year. Certainly better than running Mikolas out there to give up blocks of runs. Please answer the question posed and stop blaming the fans.
DG: OK, Kevin. That part where I wrote that I see where fans are coming from, and I understand why fans bring it up -- yeah, totally, on me for trying to be empathetic to the fans here while also explaining the team's viewpoint and where there is a disconnect.
Blame the fans? Give me a break.
If I blamed the fans this chat would last 5 minutes each week instead of 5 hours.
McGreevy pitched an excellent game. He deserves another look in the majors. He might give them a better chance to win. Alas, you and I aren't making that call. One of us is at least asking the people making that decision why -- and I'm passing along the answer to you, out of respect for the fans right to ask those questions and in an attempt to inform you so you can have strong information on how to spend your entertainment dollars and how to be critical of your favorite team.
Ken: Derrick the CBT is $ 241 million next year. This year the Cards are over 200 million with tax and tags and benefits etc. Do you have any inclination about how far ownership will stretch next season ?
DG: Do not yet, no. That is definitely a question that will gain clarity after this season -- and soon. In past years, for me, the payroll question and the payroll approach gets its most clarity right around the GM Meetings as the Cardinals' strategy for the offseason starts to unfold. That tends to be when they've had all their discussions, made some tangible decisions, and start giving agents and other teams what they're working with.
Ryan: Sure. But again, they can be wrong Derrick. It's ok. The standings say they're not good enough. They've had 5 months. That's where the FO should step in a remove said players and bring up who they want. And, in reality, what they might be calling up actually is probably better than what they've been running out there. I thought the Gen Mgr sets the roster and the mgr sets the lineup. So Mo thinks they still got a shot at the Wild Card game based off his actions? Oh boy....
DG: They can indeed be wrong. Math suggests they will be wrong. Let me know how you deliver that message to the clubhouse. I brought it up to the manager. He was not thrilled by the question. Maybe you have a better way of pulling the plug and moving on to 2025. I have no doubt someone would have a better way to present it than I would.
Kevin in DC: Thanks for answering the question. My point was why not try McGreevy to help spark the miracle at this point, as the risk/reward is favorable.
DG: Again, you may see it that way. And that's fine. The team does not. My explaining their view does not make your view any less. It's just their view that makes the decision.
Ryan: What is the Cards price tag to reclaim Alcantara from the Marlins? 3yrs and $55 Mil left on his deal. My offer would be Hence, Roby, Bernal & Prieto. We're told Hence has " ACE " stuff and that Roby's potential could be a #2-3. Bernal is a sweetner with value as the Cards have plenty of prospect catcher capital. Prieto cause he's blocked everyway possible in STL and he's not kid anymore. Cards probably wouldn't do that deal, but that's why they are where they are. Ink would be dry on my end.
DG: I appreciate that you aimed high with the offer, and would suggest that it's going to take some MLB talent to get that done. Not one of the players you mentioned are currently in the majors with many years of control left on their deal. Think established MLB young player with upside and control. Then build out from there with some of the same names. For me, Bernal is not a "sweetener." He is part of the reason the team wants to trade with the Cardinals. Real prospect there at a real demanding position. Yes, the Cardinals have depth -- but Bernal could be the starter at the position for them. Marlins wouldn't do that deal without the clear immediate help. Optics matter to them too.
As for what the Marlins' price tag would be for Alcantara. Expect the Cardinals to be among the several teams who try to find out this winter. That's going to be a call Miami receives as part of teams doing their "due diligence."
ATLRob: Hey DG - thanks as always for doing these. I loved your comment on Gibson. I'd bring the guy back in heartbeat. He's a "pitcher" - not a thrower, and not only has he been great in the clubhouse, he has done a fine job this year imho on the staff. Now here's the question that has been tossed around a bit. The Blues approach with their fans feels so much more transparent than the Cardinals. We all get what Tom Stillman and Army are doing, and to his credit, Army is the first to admit mistakes when he makes them. The Cardinals front office seems to take a different approach that just alienates fans with their word salad and "I saw great things from so and so" off the back of some huge loss. Why do you think there is such a huge difference in the communication styles?
DG: Thanks for putting this question together the way you did. This is something that I've been trying to understand as well. Honestly, one of the columnists is better positioned to answer this than me. They cover both of the teams. While I covered one Blues game this past season, the kind of comments and explanations you're describing are better read by someone on that beat like Matthew DeFranks or a the columnists. I did ask Ben Frederickson about this -- and some differences definitely came up.
One, NHL is a salary cap sport. That definitely shapes what teams can do, how obvious it is, and how teams are built. MLB is not.
Two, the Blues have one Stanley Cup championship in the past -- well, ever. One. In many ways how they've communicated with fans in the wake of the Cup is better compared -- brace yourself -- to the Cubs after 2016 than the Cardinals, who are now nearly 13 years removed from their 11th title. That's going to lead to different pressure, different messaging, and keep in mind the Cardinals' sense that a complete rebuild won't be marketable here. (Brewers feel the same way in Milwaukee, FYI.)
Three, the view of their teams. The Blues could not hide from what they were doing. The Cardinals believed they were building a contender for this team. The standings at the end of the year say otherwise, but any messaging from the start of the year was going to be based on the premise they thought they had the best team in the division and the potential for a strong offensive lineup. The season proved that wrong, but how would they know.
Four, the Blues asked for patience during their rebuild and are getting it, it seems. Mozeliak asked patience on some moves, made them, and asked for patience for performance, and we all saw how fans responded to that. Doesn't seem like the same messaging with that one word helped at all.
Five, for their answers this offseason will be definitely worth comparing to the Blues, for sure. Especially if the Cardinals have to sell the fans on a new direction that is different than the brand.
Duffy in CT: DG, I meant minor league pitchers who would be on active roster for 2025 season. (Clarifying my initial questions.)
DG: There are a handful that are certainly going to be asked to contribute in 2025. McGreevy, Thompson, Graceffo, Mathews. Would not be surprised to see Hence arrive in the majors at some point in '25. Granillo is interesting. Roby could really put on a charge and be considered. This isn't an exclusive list, at all.
Mark: How does ºüÀêÊÓƵ stack up with pending Free agents as far as a destination? I gotta believe the longer the mediocrity goes on that we'll have to significantly overspend for the good ones...
DG: They'll stack up just fine if they make the best offer. Money has been and still will be the biggest factor when it comes to free agents. Geography works against the Cardinals when it comes to players from Asia, and that's something to keep in mind.
Nick replied Derrick Goold: I apologize if I've missed this in the chat or in your coverage, but why have they not been urgent at filling those roles when it's something that clearly needs to be done and has needed to for a while? It doesn't quite compute.
DG: Cost. They've invested elsewhere. They built a hitting facility and outfitted a hitting staff. So they have done it in one of the areas. Just not all.
FLORIDA OBIWAN: Thanks for the chat as always. I’m curious why Oli and MO are going to leave Mikolas in the rotation and put Matz in the bullpen? I mean Mikolas keeps getting worse and what teams would keep a guy like a #3 guy in rotation in the rotation. Makes no sense. He doesn’t deserve to stay in the rotation and to think that Mikolas will get the ship righted by now and he hasn’t is enough to believe that he should be put in bullpen and be a long man or maybe give a few tired arms a rest to be ready for the last few weeks off he season. This should should the fans that it’s time for a huge change in the management and front office. Hate to say it but fans should keep not showing up and send ownership a huge message that we fans aren’t as dumb as they think and this nickle and diming of picking up middle of the road players or ones of the scrap heap have to go.
DG: Let's pause here for a moment and say they have not said that today, and they have a decision to make Wednesday. Marmol has not said that Matz would only be used out of the bullpen from here. Quite the opposite. He hasn't committed to a role at all, and when I gave him the chance last night to talk about Matz's ability to start and relieve in the closing weeks, he agreed. I think have outlined your point well. I just want to point out it begins with a statement neither of those two gentlemen have made following Sunday's game or going into Wednesday and the decision that day.
Nick: I understand the disconnect between the fans and the FO re: focusing on 2024 vs 2025. But if they think they are still in it, doesn't McGreevy give them a better chance to win right now than at least 2/5 of the rotation? How have they reconciled their desire to win with their actions of not playing their best players?
DG: You could make that argument, for sure. They may not agree with your evaluation. That's the crux of it right? You and the Cardinals may not ahve the same view of the same stats. And you could argue both sides. The team would say that McGreevy had an excellent game but Lance Lynn's track record and several more successful starts in the majors suggest the higher probability of him performing well enough to win vs. McGreevy repeating what he did. And you could disagree and argue that McGreevy is going to repeat what he did every time out because that's the info we have on him in the majors. Or you could expand the argument, make it even stronger, and toss in his recent performance in the minors, too, where he's gone 3-1 since starting in the majors with 38 strikeouts vs. 35 hits and 10 walks in 35 2/3 innings, all to go with a great 2.52 ERA. This is a perpetual divide between fans and teams. It's why Backup Quarterbacks are beloved, why prospects are always about to be great, and why there are plenty of times that both of those things are true and the fans are validated. The team is going to more often than not choose the player they've paid to perform because the salary itself reveals to reporters like me what they expect from that player. It gives us all a good baseline to start with evaluations of players and front office.
milyabe: A lot was made over Yadi being hired as an advisor, but then he wasn't able to fulfill that role, which is understandable. Assuming his availability is unchanged, should/would the org hire a catching coordinator? We have a great primary catcher in Willson, and two promising backups. All three seem like they could use extra support in various areas of their games.
DG: Independent of Yadier Molina's role with the team, there has been some internal advocacy for the Cardinals to hire a catching coordinator for the minor-league system, and that's been the case for a few years not. You nailed it. Look at the prospects they have coming up, look at the work that Herrera has had to do behind the plate, and look at where the responsibility for that coaching has gone. Pedro Pages' advancement is a great example of this. He goes to work with Jose Trevino, changes his setup behind the plate, goes with a knee down, and shoots up the charts when it comes to defense. He was among the best in back-to-back spring trainings for the Cardinals are framing, but in between there he was told not to go one knee down. And that cost him for a bit. He eventually went back to that stance and now he's in the majors and doing well. His experience is offered as an example of why that coaching role would be valuable for the Cardinals.
Alan: If the Cardinals intend to compete in '25, they're going to need significant upgrades all over. Looking at the upcoming free agent class, if we ignore the top tier talent like the Cards are sure to do, you end up in a pool of 2-3 win outfielders and 1B (Santander, Teoscar, Hoskins), which won't move the needle much, and further bloat the payroll. So I suppose my questions are, do you expect the FO try to sell the fans on trying to compete again, and are there more impactful deals to be made via trade?
DG: We'll see how the trade market develops, but my sense right now -- on Sept. 9 -- is there will be a limited number of moves that would be more impactful than free agents and more appealing to the Cardinals. That could shift. Will know more in November, and usually if anything the possibilities only grow.
As far as the first part of your question -- will the front office "sell the fans on trying to compete again"? That is the brand. That is their promise. And we'll see if that changes. If it does, that would be a significant departure and shift for this ownership group. If it does not, then it will take a significant shift to the model they've been using. Mozeliak said. He said the "model will be tested." It has been. Based on his own statements and the standings, the model did not pass the test. A new model is necessary.
Bryan C: Good afternoon Derrick. I thinking that the 2025 Cardinals will look like the 2024 Cardinals. Most starting pitchers will be back with the exception of maybe Lynn. This winter we will hear how Matz will be the third or forth starting pitcher. The players that finish this season will be counted on to have bounce back seasons. Goldschmidt may not resign with the Cardinals. So outfield of Walker, Scott, Nootbaar and forth outfielder Siani. Arenado, Wynn, Donovan, Burleson/Baker, Contreras, Cardinals my also carry both Page and Herrera. Marmol will still be the Manager and Mo will still have the same title. The excuses will be lack of money due to lack of fans, if most of these players rebound and play like they should we will have a great team. We can not sign any top of the line free agents, maybe a dumpster dive or two. Please tell me what parts you feel I am wrong about. Thank you.
DG: I am not so sure that is how things will play out. This is going to be a volatile winter.
For fans, there will be moves that make them volatile. For the Cardinals, there will moves that reshape the roster. So, either way, it's going to be ... well, some will call it active, but I think volatile works, too.
BL: I know he's most likely to stay in New York - whether in stripes or across town yet to be seen - but man, what I wouldn't give to have Soto with Birds on the Bat across his chest... to make up for not having the last young FA hitter as such... Seems like Philly has done well with their investment in Harper.
DG: And it wasn't like we -- the big group we -- didn't see Bryce Harper being exactly what he's been. Remarkable. What a fit that wasn't.
Phil: Hey Derrick, any big plans for October? Long-awaited vacations, visiting family/friends, etc.?
DG: I'm on the schedule to work. There is always something with the Cardinals. And subscribers expect coverage.
Eli:ÌýI sure was hoping all this Diamond Sports group stuff would be sorted by now. Will be frustrating to go into another off-season with the speculation of the impact of that always hanging over every decision the Cardinals do/do not make
DG: Agreed. It's a mess. It's going to be a pinch for fans and for teams and it's going to be a pain -- but the payoff will be out there for fans and teams alike. It just will take a few years and those aren't going to be great.
milyabe: Great podcast as always. I was intrigued by the conversation around patience. It seems like the Cardinals can't show the same level of patience as the Brewers because of the expectations to always win. (I, for one, want us to always have the expectation to win.) How do the Cardinals operate with increased patience while maintaining those high expectations? The fan base - at least online - fires up at the mere mention of "patience" from the FO.
DG: Thanks for listening to BPIB. I think that's the point: They can't. What makes the Brewers' model work is how they've struck right with those moves, and the Cardinals, by nature, cannot. They'll talk about that on the record.
If you're interested, here's one of those stories on the "opportunity gap" and impatience.
chico: DG,I look at the attendance right now being 7th in the league at 2.4 or so,and think of how many playoff contending teams and cities that are larger wishing that they had ours. I'm trying to be positive,but am I wrong?
DG: You're not wrong. But that doesn't it make it all right in ºüÀêÊÓƵ.
South City Steve: Admittedly, we have no idea what the team's plan is after this season (we're also not sure they do either) but do you see a scenario where Scherzer finally comes home for his final year? Granted, if you are signing him then we are likely getting more of the same type of roster building that we have been complaining about for the past 3 hours.
DG: I wouldn't say we have "no" idea. We have some idea. We actually have lots of ideas. We know the decisions they have to make on contracts. We know the free agents who are going to be part of their decisions. We don't know their direction yet, but we have some idea of the ways they could go. And, sure, what the heck you don't have to squint to see a scenario where Max Scherzer is finally a Cardinal. Kyle Gibson is finally a Cardinal. It does happen.
You bring up an interesting point: While Scherzer may be the move that is so similar, safe, etc., that it's what some chatters have been criticizing all afternoon -- I wonder how many of them wouldn't celebrate signing Scherzer and maybe even go buy a jersey.
Pugger: Who cares if they have back to back losing seasons since the 50's to preserve some mythos that the Cardinals are always in contention.. Do we really think the fans have that at the top of their priority list? I think real fans would think "This season isn't going to be what we thought it was; Let's play the kids, and if we pick top 5 this year then we bring in a 2nd game changing player that we can use as fundamental building blocks for the future... Cuz.. Umm.. We don't have any of those right now... People just want to win, and I think are smart enough to delay their gratification for a few years to get there...
DG: That's definitely one point of view. You ask "who cares". Well, some people do. I actually hear from lots of people who care about that. The see it as a tradition to uphold and tradition matters deeply to them. I actually would lean more toward side -- and have said as much. The difference between being eliminated and coasting from there vs. being eliminated and pushing to at least finish with a winning record, well, that should matter. You can disagree. And disagreeing with you is not a measure of "true fans."
You said it yourself. "People just want to win." So, a winning record would be a result of winning.
Another year where they don't have back to back losing seasons does matter to some fans who are tried and true and go back generations.
chico: Why doesn't Dewitt start his own network,so he can control these things?
DG: That's been discussed. The Cardinals and Blues had ongoing discussions about starting up a network. They instead of opted for being part owner of Bally Sports so that they did not run into the same distribution issues that the Yankees and Dodgers did, as an example. They wanted to own what they could, but not own the whole thing and then run into issues actually getting the channel to subscribers, as the Dodgers did for example. The Cardinals learned from others and took the route they did. They also kept back their streaming rights so that they could control those, and that was a move ahead of its time that is going to set them up to eventually have their own thing, and they again approach the Blues about sharing in that. Would make sense.
Cards fan in KC: DG, I have a question that has been bugging me for awhile. Theoretically, the Cardinals are limited on what they can do at the Jupiter complex by the unwillingness of the Marlins to also do same. Does these improvements, (labs, etc.) have to be at the complex? What if the team did these improvements elsewhere in Jupiter, or even a little outside of Jupiter? Why wouldnt this work? Thanks!
DG: They do not, and that is what the Cardinals have already. They have expanded their minor-league training facility to the other side of the street, off the main campus and away from those restrictions. Now, they are limited by what's available in the building but it's expanded enough that minor-leaguers can walk right over, get access to training and trainers in an expanded facility that does not make them wait for the big leaguers to be done. They've looked into going further away -- and they had talks with a local facility about farming out some of the things they wanted to do. They found that gave them less control than they desired. So, yes, they have looked into all these possibilities, and keep returning to the renovations that were supposed to be completed a few years ago, and now are only just beginning.
Pugger: I think your almost describing a sense of nostalgia for the past.. What we 'achieved in the past.' I get it.. I get what your saying.. But one-- How Many of those people are there that absolutely want to get above .500 so they can say "no, no 2 years in a row did we have a losing record?" Is it a majority? Is it a large majority? Is it a vocal minority? Numbers matter in terms of how you can move forward.. I cite the Blues. They are nearly in the same place as the Cardinals.. Trying to bring young guys in and open a competitive window, but trying there darndest to win with the older guys. But the difference? They are "Honest" with the fans about what they are doing and that there may be (for a few years only hopefully) some pain. Do you see the arena emptying out at the hockey arena cuz the Blues are trying to integrate the kids? No.. Because their messaging is honest and up front. The Cardinals.. I can't honestly say what their messaging is... you noted above.. They say "We really wanna try to win this year but we DFA'd Armstrong and Pham." Things that you do have to make sense, or...You have to message what you are doing openly, and honestly.. AKA what Doug Armstrong
DG: I not almost describing nostalgia. I am exactly describing nostalgia. And I'm not dismissing the power of it or the value of it. Cardinals are their history. Most fans I talk to relish that history -- some are even fans of the team because of that history. And that history is worth respecting and living up to. Pretty simple. I'm not "almost" anything. I am exactly talking about nostalgia and its pressure and its standards and its expectations.
Goodness, for a team that hasn't been in the playoffs for two seasons, has won one championship in its history, has advanced past the second round of the playoffs twice in the past 10 years (once more than the Cardinals), and has cycled through four coaches in that time (right?), the Blues have got some good PR.
They sure better win this year, right?
Dicky: Derrick does it really matter 80, 81, 82 wins, that’s a sorry excuse in my opinion, this organization milks nostalgia to death, but yesterday doesn’t in todays future or standings, they need living in the past, and change direction for the future, only so many Red Jackets, bobbleheads, hockey sweaters doesn’t matter. They need to build a team worthy of contention, the 2024 was not, they used 2 roster spots for leadership, they need ballers, not former players they are comfortable around, the decline started with HackGate and 5 out of 9 seasons missing playoffs is enough
DG: That's what I'm asking. Does it matter to you? Some say no. Some say yes. I suggest that it should mean more because in hindsight being brought up as the first team to have back to back losing seasons since the 1950s is going to be something that sticks around as a label.
I don't consider that living in the past. I consider that upholding tradition. To do that, they need to modernize.
Cards fan in KC: I get what you are saying, "So, yes, they have looked into all these possibilities, and keep returning to the renovations that were supposed to be completed a few years ago, and now are only just beginning." Soemthing that worked for me in my career was NEOS, no excuses, only solutions" Evidently they have it backwards, Only excuses, never solutions. This the kind of thing, (them, not you,) that is so frustrating. They should have accomplished the labs, what, a decade or so ago?
DG: Yes, they should have. They agree with that statement. But here they are.
ICCFIM: In the past couple of years, the Cards I believe thought they were one or two players away from contending. That drove offseason actions where they signed one pitcher, Matz, one position player, Contreras. Last year, they realized it was further away, so several pitchers were signed. Now that there are question marks with many potential key players, Gorman, Walker, Scott, Sianni and Nootbar on the position side, to get back to the Blues angle. Can't they message they want to play all these guys for a year to see what they have to make sure they keep the right guys and fill in from there. The group has upside potential. Baseball is also a confidence game. Show confidence in the young core in 2025 and play them. Jerking them around ala, Carlson, Gorman and Walker is not a plan for a success. The Cards communication problem was that the communication was something that very few felt was realistic. This seems more realistic.
DG: They could do that. I don't really think the Cardinals have a communication issue. They have a performance, production, and development issue. What they say is viewed through the prism of the results. I'm really intrigued by the idea that retrofitting a message upon the Cardinals is what really would change things. Nope. Sorry. No. Better production from the offense would. A league average slugging percentage with runners in scoring position would. A young player catching fire like Masyn Winn did and being part of a winner would. For years in this chat, we've talked about how actions speak louder than words, and so many questions today are suggesting that the words the Cardinals are saying are wrong. I can't buy into that.
Actions.
Not messaging.
Actions.
The Cardinals entered this season bound for their first year with a $200-million payroll. They did not expect this to be a rebuilding year, so why ask them to message as such? They felt they had a contending team, and privately thought they might have one of the best, balanced, and potent lineups in baseball. It did not happen. No amount of messaging at the start of the season about something they did not know was about to happen would change what did happen.
They don't need better PR.
They need better SLG.
Dicky: Live in the past, die in the present, history ain’t got nothing to do with 2025 results, last year it was one bad year, what’s their excuse this year, seriously the entire organization needs a reboot
DG: Don't live in the past.
Live up to the past.
The past set a standard. Meet it or exceed, don't be the one who let it slide.
Cards fan in KC: sigh
DG: I hear you.
This seems like a good spot to stop for the week. As mentioned before, 5 hours of chatting -- and what a theme developed through the course of today's conversation.
While we were in the chat, beloved actor James Earl Jones died. He is, of course, famously the voice of both Darth Vader and baseball, among many many other and some greater roles. We ended this chat discussing (debating?) nostalgia. Well, you want the gravity and import of nostalgia, I give you James Earl Jones' speech in Field of Dreams. Nostalgia doesn't have to be about going to visit the past. It can be about building something for the future. His speech wasn't about ghosts coming to the ballpark. They were already there.
It's about new fans coming to the field.
Cardinals fans can relate. They've been coming to the game for years, and now all they appear to be asking is build something they can be excited to see again. Build it, and they will come.
(Quick aside: The character James Early Jones played in the movie is a fictional author. In W. P. Kinsella's book, the character is a real recluse author ... J. D. Salinger. Had a chance to talk once with Kinsella about baseball and his books and the power of baseball stories, but that's for another day.)
Revisit Jones' speech if you have time.
Ken: And you know what . It matters to the players. You bet it does. Even in little league. These players want to win . They don’t want that albatross of back to back around their neck.
DG: Bingo.
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