Every at-bat he’s taken, every inning he’s played in the outfield and every spring training in which he’s participated since getting drafted by the team in 2021 are all part of the buildup, Cardinals prospect Joshua Baez believes.
The 20-year-old feels that with each opportunity he’s on the brink of turning projection into production.
“I feel like every single year I get closer to who I am, and I can explain that,†Baez said during a recent interview in Jupiter, Florida. “I feel like I haven’t really touched on who Joshua Baez is yet, and I feel like every year I get a little bit closer. Learning from every single season, trying to stay healthy (and) trying to stay on the field, I feel like that’s what’s huge for me because as soon as I get those reps under my belt, there’s going to be one day where I just explode and I take off.â€
After a hand injury that required surgery limited him to 32 games in 2022, Baez played in a career-high 91 games for Class Low-A Palm Beach this past season. He connected on 20 doubles and successfully stole 30 bases on 32 attempts but produced a .218 batting average and ended the season with a 34.1% strikeout rate — the latter being the highest among Cardinals prospects with more than 350 plate appearances.
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“I feel like last year was a big year in terms of learning,†Baez said. “It was my first full year being healthy. I was able to experience live pitching every day. Making those adjustments early in the season, I kind of had a little slow start, which kind of carried a little bit.â€
Despite the struggles to produce consistent average and consistent contact, the former second-round pick finished as one of three Cardinals prospects with 20 or more doubles and 30 more steals alongside fellow outfielders Victor Scott II and Mike Antico. Baez’s ability on the bases is one he said he realized around the age of 13 and something he believes shows he is capable of being “a five-tool guy.â€
He also maintained a .341 on-base percentage, a figure that rose to .366 over his last 66 games, and produced a walk rate (12.6%) that was 10th-best among Cardinals prospects.
“He was probably one of the most impactful guys in our lineup because of his walks,†Class Low-A Palm Beach manager Gary Kendal said in a phone interview. “… He could beat you in a lot of different ways other than power. The strikeouts were still not where we wanted them to be, but he managed to put together (productive) games, and I thought he made great strides mentally in handling failure and being able to just separate those days.â€
Cutting down on K’s
When it comes to his potential at the plate, Baez is described as having plus-plus raw power by outlets like Baseball America. While on guest commentary during Friday’s Spring Breakout prospect game between Cardinals prospects and Marlins prospects, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak called the power aspect of the 20-year-old’s game his “carrying tool.â€
The 20-year-old’s unrefined power was part of the upside that made him the 54th overall pick in 2021 and led the Cardinals to sway Baez from a commitment to Vanderbilt University and sign him to a $2.25 million bonus — a figure more than $900,000 above his assigned draft slot value.
Baez showcased that potential on Sunday at Roger Dean Stadium in the second Spring Breakout game between Cardinals prospects and Astros prospects. The right-handed hitter belted a 2-1 slider from Astros prospect Jake Bloss to left-center field for a solo home run that traveled a projected 455 feet and jumped off his bat with a 110.1 mph exit velocity, per Statcast. The home run, which provided the lone run in a 1-0 win for Cardinals prospects, was the longest home run during MLB’s weekend of prospect exhibition games.
“I’m a power guy,†Baez said. “I try to get the ball in the air hard. Sometimes we get a little too under. But I’m like, ‘That happens.’ But I feel like if I can keep my contact up, good things can happen.â€
In 298 at-bats a season ago, Baez produced a 45.5% fly-ball rate — an increase of more than 13% from 2022, per FanGraphs. He posted an average exit velocity (106.6 mph) that was third-best in the Florida State League but had a 72.8% in-zone contact rate, per MLB Pipeline. Over his career, Baez’s approach at the plate has come with a .219 batting average, a .392 slugging percentage and strikeouts in 33.7% of his 575 plate appearances since he turned pro.
To improve on the swing-and-miss struggles heading into his third full season, Baez used his offseason to improve his ability to track pitches. He emphasized finding better discipline and a more sound approach in the batter’s box after ending last season with 122 strikeouts.
“It’s just really having good hands,†Baez explained. “It sounds easy, but it’s just tracking the ball the whole way and really trying to keep your body in a good position every single time.â€
He sees it as a process that will require patience — a concept that has come with his development.
“The more games you play, the more comfortable you can get at the plate,†Baez said. “I feel like that’s going to be a huge thing for me. Coming off last year, being able to get ... 300 (at-bats), I feel like this year is going to be a good year. I worked really really hard in the offseason focusing on my body and on my swing and on my approach. I’m really positive about this year. I feel like my preparation has been enough, and I’m ready to go for 2024.â€