ATLANTA — In so many ways, they’ve been the complete opposite of the Cardinals when it comes to building a contender — shedding starters instead of accumulating them, losing a manager instead of committing to him, missing the best closer in the game instead of launching one — and yet in one significant way, the Milwaukee Brewers remain the same.
They’re still, despite it all, in first place.
“I don’t know. You tell me,†said outfielder Christian Yelich this past week at the All-Star Game when asked how Milwaukee has bucked perceptions and been in first place for 97 consecutive days.
“Everybody thought we were going to be horrible this year, finish last,†he continued. “I think we’re kind of used to it. We go into the season and we’re kind of just never picked to do anything. We’re the ones in the offseason who should sell all our players and trade for prospects and play for the future. You lose your manager. You lose two of the best pitchers in baseball. One of the best closers in the game is out for the year. So everybody is like: Hey, you should give up. I think our team kind of takes it like: Alright, well, let’s see what we can do. We have a great culture, and we know how to win games.â€
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The regular season resumes Friday from the All-Star break with Sonny Gray leading the Cardinals into Atlanta, and it’s not sensationalism to say the National League Central remains a five-team race. Atop the division is the team that entered with no external expectations at all. And just behind those Brewers are the second-place Cardinals, the team that entered the season with so much internal pressure to turn last year’s coal into diamonds.
A franchise player nearing free agency and a front office inching toward a transition of power only adds subplots to a pivotal season for the Cardinals’ current era.
With the best record in the National League since Mother’s Day at 35-22, the Cardinals closed on the Brewers but stumbled into the break splitting a series with the Cubs and losing four of their past six at home. The Brewers (55-42) own a 4 ½-game lead on the Cardinals (50-46). Four division teams are scrunched within four games of each other, between the Cardinals and last-place Cubs (47-51). All five teams in the division either hold a playoff berth as the second half begins or are within 3½ games of one.
Standings are close. Games are closer.
“I mean, you throw in that extra wild-card (playoff berth), and I feel like every game is nitty, gritty playing the Cardinals and playing the Brewers,†Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds said. “And playing the Reds, for us, is like that. I feel like every game is really close, going back and forth. It feels like our division is very, very, very tight.â€
The Cardinals reached a winning record by defying the probabilities of so many close games with arguably the league’s top bullpen and a supportive mix of youth (on offense) and seasoning (in the rotation). Led by All-Star closer Ryan Helsley’s club record 32 saves at the break, the Cardinals have lost only twice when leading after the seventh inning. They’re 44-0 when leading after the eighth — and 27 of their 50 wins have come by two runs or fewer. In the 50 victories, Cardinals pitchers have a 2.13 ERA, and the offense has put that to the test.
The Cardinals have yet to see the lineup they imagined or the leaders they’re familiar with. Cornerstones Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado had two of the least productive first halves of their careers. The Cardinals have had precisely zero games with the outfield they advertised because Tommy Edman has yet to return from wrist surgery and Lars Nootbaar has missed times with two different injuries.
“Offensively, we were in a spot that we were really unfamiliar with,†Nootbaar said. “No one was really clicking at that point. I know I said repeatedly I trust the guys in this clubhouse to do their thing, and they did. It hasn’t been one person or one thing. The bullpen has done a tremendous job. Starting pitching has been great. Offense is starting to come around. Obviously, we’re in a good spot to help ourselves be in an even greater spot. That’s cool.â€
As the second half starts, here are the steps to go from good to great as that pressure builds, an era approaches its potential end, and the 2024 Cardinals face a series of revealing and defining litmus tests.
At the core
Despite the breakout efforts of rookie Masyn Winn and slugger Alec Burleson, who leads the Cardinals in homers and RBIs, the Cardinals offense has lagged, especially in two prominent areas. The Cardinals have the fewest home runs in the majors with runners in scoring position and next-to-worst slugging (.340) and OPS (.639) with the chance to exploit those opportunities. They also struggle mightily against lefties with a .621 OPS. The next-closest team with a winning record has a .679 OPS vs. lefties.
Trace the fault lines of the Cardinals’ offensives woes and inevitably they lead back to where the offense is supposed to start — the middle-order hitters two years removed from MVP finishes. While leading the team in RISP at-bats with 87, Goldschmidt has only two extra-base hits. A career .297 hitter with RISP with a .511 slugging percentage, this year’s batting .172 with a .218 slugging percentage. Goldschmidt is hitting .201 at home. His slugging against lefties has dropped from a career .585 to .396 so far this season. Arenado’s career .937 OPS vs. lefties is down to .609 this season. Bothered by different arm injuries, his home run rate per at-bat has been halved.
The Cardinals aren’t going to find a right-handed hitter available in the market or from their system who can substitute for the expected production of their two highest-paid players.
They aren’t the keys to igniting the offense — they’re the engine.
All the right moves
If the first move to address a need decides the division, the Brewers already made it when they added a starter. It’s more likely the biggest move will shape the division and could win it. Back to their buying ways at the trade deadline after a year’s hiatus, the Cardinals are shopping for depth and pitchers, and they will measure the market for a starter who upgrades their rotation. There are options, according to multiple sources.
Past interest in Nathan Eovaldi could rekindle if Texas turns seller. If the Cardinals are in the business of undoing previous mistakes, Max Scherzer is a Ranger, though he recently told “Foul Territory†he did not plan to waive his no-trade clause again. Angels All-Star lefty Tyler Anderson and White Sox right-hander Erick Fedde are intriguing because they have reasonable contracts through 2025. Toronto’s lefty Yusei Kikuchi would be a rental.
5 to watch
- Sonny Gray, RHP: The headliner of the Cardinals' reboot of their rotation with veterans this winner, and they've received what they needed from Gray. He hurdled some difficult starts to be a candidate for the All-Star Game. But what they want is what he can give them in the second half: an ace.
- Ryan Helsley, RHP: Buoyed by a 31-for-31 streak of successful saves and role that’s allowed him to thrive, Helsley has the makings of a record-setting season for a Cardinals closer. Given how comfy the Cardinals are in close games, he may get a run at 50 saves.
- Goldschmidt & Arenado: The Cardinals have played their way into contending and avoiding the question of whether they’d trade Goldschmidt, a free agent in November, to a contender. So in what could be their final months together as Cardinals teammates, two of the finest infielders of their generation have, if they can return to their career norms, the ability to carry the team to more than just the desired division title.
- John Mozeliak:Â A fixture on this annual midseason list for several years running. With one full season remaining on a contract he says is his last, the president of baseball operations is fashioning the final touches of his legacy. Will that add a dash of urgency to his proven pragmatism, a swatch of trade-deadline flair to his tailor-made moves?
- The fans: Attendance has drifted this season — some of the smallest crowds at Busch III, fewer than 40,000 tickets sold for a home game against the Cubs — and competition for attention and entertainment dollars is high. Ratings have dropped, mostly due to the ongoing deterioration of the current broadcast model. After a last-place finish and a slow start that seemed like more of the same, the Cardinals have a compelling style and a spark. Can they turn that into the aura that brings wins and playoffs back to Busch? Fans are watching — until they have reason not to.
Defining grind
Two weeks after the July 30 trade deadline, the most rigorous test remaining on the Cardinals’ season begins. Between two series against Cincinnati, the Cardinals play 22 consecutive games from Aug. 16 to Sept. 8 against winning teams.
Twelve are against teams currently in first place.
That stretch of games pits the Cardinals against clubs with a combined .556 winning percentage, and it features visits to Busch Stadium by the Dodgers and former Cardinals manager Mike Shildt’s Padres. The Cardinals also visit the Yankees toward the end of 16 games in 16 days. And six of those games, right in the crucible of this challenging schedule, are against the Brewers.
Simple math
Those six games are also the final six games against the first-place Brewers. In the past 12 months, Milwaukee traded its ace Corbin Burnes, lost its All-Star starter Brandon Woodruff to shoulder surgery, missed decorated closer Devin Williams due to a stress fractured, and watched manager Craig Counsell leap south to riches on the North Side of Chicago. All those losses, and still the Brewers win — especially against the Cardinals. But counterintuitively, the head-to-head matchups show how close the rivals actually are. The Cardinals are 1-6 against the Brewers. They are 49-40 in their other games.
Without the wins vs. the Cardinals, the Brewers are 49-41.
To best the Brewers, start by beating the Brewers.
“When you dig yourself a hole it takes a ton physically for the clubhouse and emotionally to get out of it and get to where we are right now,†manager Oliver Marmol said. “We’re not close to being done.â€