Welcome to the frenzy.
It's the eve of Major League Baseball's trade deadline, and if we've learned anything over the years from the Cardinals chats at , there's likely to be news in the midst of the questions. The confluence of trade questions and trade reporting is going to make for a busy, frenetic, and hopefully enjoyable ... well, insightful ... chat.
I'll aim to cover it in real time here, pausing or popping out when necessary but returning to take this conversation up until the time reporting begins at the ballpark — if not beyond.
The trade deadline is 5 p.m. ºüÀêÊÓƵ time Tuesday.
Let's start with a summary of info, and some new details:
• The Cardinals continue to pursue and have interest in White Sox right-hander Erick Fedde. The Post-Dispatch has reported on this interest for the past few weeks and that has not changed. Neither has the Sox asking price, which remains high.Â
People are also reading…
• The New York Yankees had a rep in Springfield, Missouri, this past weekend to evaluate Tommy Edman, according to multiple sources. Even after adding Jazz Chisholm Jr., the Yankees are still determining their interest in Edman and his health, the Post-Dispatch was told. There are concerns about when he'll be ready given the ankle injury setback and what can be expected from him.
Edman has yet to play the field as he recovers from wrist surgery and the ankle injury that continues to limit him some at game-speed. The Cardinals are open to exploring deals that would return a starting pitcher. One name brought up in the Cardinals talks with the Yankees was Nestor Cortes, a lefty and former All-Star with another year of control, though the Yankees may not be eager to deal from their depth unless they're . The framework of the deal is similar to what the Cardinals did in 2022 to send Harrison Bader (on the IL) to the Yankees for lefty Jordan Montgomery.
Edman is signed through 2025.
• The Cardinals are exploring the market for Edman, outfielder Dylan Carlson, and reliever Giovanny Gallegos, per sources.
Gallegos was designated for assignment on Sunday to clear a spot on the 40-man roster. If the Cardinals are unable to trade Gallegos before Tuesday's deadline, they are likely to release the veteran right-hander. Their preference to alleviate some salary before having to pay out the remainder of the $7 million owed him for this season ($6.5 million salary, $500,000 buyout of option). That payout would be minus the prorated minimum paid by any team that signs him.
They have received interest from teams on all three players.
• Edman has drawn interest during his rehab assignment from several teams. The Athletic identified the Los Angeles Dodgers as another interested team.
• As anyone would expect with few sellers and so many teams on the edge of the playoff bubble, prices are high. Buyers are likely to use the deadline to squeeze some of the prices lower because once Tuesday evening arrives and the deadline passes the return for the sellers is zero (or a comp pick, at best) on players with expiring contracts. One of the pitchers the Cardinals have explored who fits that rental definition (and is a lefty) is Toronto's Yusei Kukuchi.
• The Cardinals have explored deals for relievers to add to the bullpen and fortify it because of the weighty workload. Through the course of the chat there will be ongoing attempts to pin down, confirm more details.
I wonder if some of that might be fact-finding, too. If the Cardinals engage with teams looking to trade relievers, they can gather information on what they should ask in return — or even get a sense of what All-Star Ryan Helsley could command at a time when demand for relievers is high. They have, let's be clear, not shown an intent to be a seller at the deadline, but if their current approach is anything like their past practices they'll try to get that intel.
I'll add more as the day rolls on here.
We're still about 30 minutes away from the scheduled start to the weekly Cardinals chat ... oh, why wait? Let's get going early.
Bring the questions. I'll do my best to provide answers.
There will be pauses to do some reporting along the way.
A real-time transcript of the chat will be presented below the window, hopefully making it easier for you to read on the device of your choice. The questions will not be edited for spelling or grammar; they will be deleted for vulgarities, threats, or other inappropriate or impolite language.
The answers will do their best to keep up with your questions.
To borrow from Poe, into the maelstrom ... Â
Donald N: Good Morning Derrick; Juan Yepez and Lane Thomas seem like 2 RH bats Cardinals would love to have now. Lots written about lack of pitching in the pipeline but from your objective vantage, how have Cards fared in developing hitters? Plus the flame out of Dylan Carlson, still baffles me. Thanks for your expertise and hard work! Donald
Derrick Goold: Not great, Bob. To borrow a phrase. While the players who have gone elsewhere and shined get a lot of attention -- and should; Arozarena, Garcia, etc. -- one of the conversations we've been trying to have on the podcast is reframing that discussion around why the Cardinals haven't amplified the hitters they've kept. There are certainly examples of them doing: Donovan, Nootbaar, Burleson, and certainly the power component from Gorman. Winn is that list. And it's Winn who may join the group that, out of curiosity, I looked up yesterday.
Arbitrarily using Randy Arozarena's rookie season as the line, I looked up all of the seasons by a Cardinals hitter with a 3.6 WAR or greater since 2001.
There were 55.
I wanted to look at how many of those came from homegrown players in the past 25 seasons. As you can imagine, Albert Pujols dominated the field. He had 11 on his own. The others? Seventeen, led of course by Matt Carpenter (4), Yadier Molina (2), and Tommy Edman (2). So, you're talking about three players other than Pujols, two of whom are Gold Glove winners who excel defensively.
Since the end of 2011, when Pujols left for the California Angels of Anaheim in Orange County near Los Angeles, here are the WAR seasons greater than 6.0 by a homegrown Cardinal:
Yadier Molina 7.2, 2012
Matt Carpenter 6.6, 2013
Tommy Pham 6.2, 2017
Yadier Molina 6.2, 2013
Tommy Edman 6.2, 2022
For context, that's a high number as there were nine batters who had a WAR greater than 6.0 in 2023, per Baseball-Reference's calculations. But it puts in perspective where the Cardinals have gone for production and where they've lacked the sustained, certain impact in the past 5-8 years from their farm system.
bigron: In your opinion will the cards make a notable acquisition before the deadline?
DG: This much is clear: They're making an attempt. They had a sense of optimism yesterday on making progress toward at least one addition. And, it should not surprise any longtime fans of the team, that their conservative approach will be tested. At the trade deadline, it's rarely about getting the deal you want and who is willing to get past that to get the player you want.
JJ: Is Thomas Saggesse on the trade block? With JJ drafted and donovan/Gordon at 2nd? Does he play 3rd?
DG: They're not actively seeking offers for him, if that's what the trade block means. But they're not closed off to the conversation and withdrawing him or avoiding discussing him. They are motivated to get some return on last year's sell -- and would like the optics of that season to be the addition of multiple players who will help the team. Saggese, Wetherholt, these are both position players who they think can do that.
As to Saggese at third ... He's playing shortstop a lot now; third is a position they'll try him at, and have already. I don't think the plan is to have him be the third baseman. If they need that spot, Gorman would start at third, opening second.
Blake: Regarding the rotation for 2025: You have Lynn and Gibson with options for next year and Pallante not viewed by many as a long term solution. With 3 spots potentially up for grabs next year a rental feels like a waste of resources. What prospects currently in the system do the Cardinals believe can break the rotation next year? And who do they view as ideal external targets with at-least a year of control beyond 2024.
DG: You've outlined this well -- and hit on the question that brings them back to some of the names available now. What other names would they pursue for 2025? Going into the trade deadline it's one of the things that I heard described by several sources: That the Cardinals saw some moves to make now that would not only help them for 2024 but bring some clarity to them for 2025. Pallante has pitched well enough to force himself into that depth start and any discussion of the rotation's future. There's no surefire young starter that has chiseled his name into the 2025 rotation at this point. The Cardinals are, of course, open to Thompson, Graceffo, McGreevy doing so -- and they'll see when Hence, Hjerpe, Bedell, and Mathews are keen to force their way into the conversation. When you look at Fedde and Anderson, they are signed through 2025 with salaries the Cardinals could not get for that production on the open market. That's a big part of the appeal. The goal of a rental would be take advantage of the 11th-hour move when a price drops and the resources spent aren't that much. It would be a get-by, or lightning-capture deal. That seems to be, at the moment, how this is playing out, and not just for the Cardinals.
South City Steve: One of Mo’s favorite b-school buzz words is arbitrage. Why not look at moving Mikolas in this pitching-needy frenzy while simultaneously trading for an upgrade? You don’t need him next year and between Gray’s raise and the need for another top-end pitcher and likely another cornerstone player to replace Goldy, the team could use the payroll space too.
DG: They might, as outlined above, indeed need him in 2025. If the Cardinals do not figure out something with Goldschmidt for 2025 -- and maybe there will be a question that invites digging into that -- then you're look at Alec Burleson being the likely first baseman. The lineup would welcome another pillar to plant beside Nolan Arenado, but increasingly the Cardinals seem to be readying their roster for that to come from within. Pitching depth is always at a premium. Starters are always necessary. And getting a Mikolas-type on the open market would likely cost more than he's signed for. When you look at the scenario as you present it, it sure seems like a) there's a benefit to keeping Mikolas, not dealing him, even if there's "simultaneously an upgrade" and b) the Cardinals are going to have a hard time avoiding an increase in payroll. It's wired into their returning contracts.
Wally: With about a month left in the minor league seasons, I think it's fair to say this has been a really disappointing season for both Victor Scott II and Jordan Walker. Not just that neither stuck in the majors but it seems like neither has done all that much to inspire confidence at Triple A. How do the Cardinals view their 2024 seasons thus far and how are they aiming to get them back on track for 2025?
DG: Cardinals officials have not offered much about that when asked. The most common response as been "they continue to work." Part of that is being in the midst of the season with pressure to win, contend, win, contend, win in the majors, and the general shift in tone to being about the roster that's here, not the roster they imagined or wished would be here. Play with the players you have, not pine for the players who aren't around -- that sort of thing. That's pretty common. Still, there's no comment from the Cardinals that suggest they see either as a certainty for their 2025 outfield. Back in June, I believe, spoke to Oliver Marmol about Walker specifically and he said that when Walker "is ready" there is playing time for him in the majors. That guarantee was notable, I thought. It gave the sense that the Cardinals saw him as player working his way back to being the starter, not a prospect trying to get attention for an opportunity.
The similar paths these outfielders have taken for the Cardinals really should concern the club -- because they need impact from that position. They've tried a variety of approaches to get it. They've cleared playing time for preferred prospects to grow. They've tried to develop in the majors. They've returned outfielders to develop in the minors. And yet we all know the names of outfielders who have gone elsewhere to thrive, and now they're looking to trade another top prospect and former first-round pick who they don't have a spot for just years after they cleared a spot for him by trading a player (Harrison Bader, right?), who they cleared a spot for by trading a player (Lane Thomas) and on (Randy Arozarena) and on and on ...
John W: Mozeliak keeps saying he is looking to the future at this deadline, So why not try to talk Detroit into trading Tarik Skubal? Here is a great pitcher under control thru 2026. They have the prospects to make this happen if Mozeliak wasn't so gun shy! Either they really want to win or they dont! Which is it?
DG: Why not indeed? There's nothing to suggest that they haven't. There's nothing to prove your claim they have the prospect to do so. To date, the Tigers have shown zero interest in trading one of the best pitchers in the game at this deadline. The deadline would be a lot easier for the Cardinals if they could compel their wishes on other teams. But they cannot.
(Insert Obi Wan Kenobi GIF here.)
chico: Have the Cardinals seen enough of Lynn and Gibson to make a decision on upholding next years option,or not?
DG: Not really. They have time on their hands. Anything could happen in the remaining months to change or make their mind, and they're not really going to dive into that until they have to. That's the old Larry Pleau Principle in action, for long-time chatters. A lot of times, if you wait until the deadline for a decision, it will be obvious in ways you'll spin yourself through scenarios in the weeks leading up to it.
Ben: All the chatter on Twitter yesterday was that the club was not positioned tob take on significant additional salary in the coming years. Is this statement something that DeWitt. actually said? If so, we are doomed for mediocrity under his ownership?
DG: I did not see or hear a quote from Bill DeWitt Jr. on this subject. I saw a citation of an unnamed source. That's common this time of year and every news outlet as its policy for what is required to report something using an unnamed source.
Here's what I can add -- and we both know how this will go. I'm shouting into a gale instead of turning to surf it.
The Cardinals are in a spot where they can add payroll this season. Moving Gallegos alleviates some of the salary -- just in the same way every team in baseball would try to do the same with a contract like his, a market like this, and the bullpen depth they feel they have. It's a cost-cutting move that makes sense if they don't have a role for him. No surprise there once that decision has been made.
The Cardinals have the ability to take on salary for the close of this season (betting, as ownership has said on the record, that contending and compelling baseball will bring in ticket sales that the team needs/banks on). They would be open to adding cost-controlled deals for beyond this year (as mentioned above with Fedde as an example). But a deal like Snell is trickier. He has a $30 million player option for 2025, and that is sizeable addition for any team. So, we're back at the beginning of your question.
What does "significant" mean?
Man, context is so boring.
Real snoozer.
Cardinal Bob: In your opinion what do the Cards need to do to move from average to above average? Thank you
DG: Three steps:
1) Add a starting pitcher who upgrades the rotation, someone who is pitching well and you don't have to squint to see how they'd start one of the three games in a three-game playoff series.
2) Either add a right-handed reliever or consider the change in the rotation as a reason to move an arm into the bullpen and also crystallize Liberatore's role as a lefty; let him shine doing that.
3) Get enough production from here to the end of the season from Goldschmidt, Arenado, and Gorman so that they end the season with a 100 OPS+, that is league average. Currently, they are 88 OPS+, 97, and 92, respectively. What timing for the surge that brings them back to average, because consider that Willson Contreras is 155 OPS+ -- or 55% average.
Jackson: Thoughts on Robert Downey Jr. being cast as Dr. Doom?
DG: Intrigued. Enjoyed the theatrics of the reveal. We can see the outline of the plot already -- and that could be really compelling, for sure. The "What If ... Iron Man didn't have a heart and love us 3,000?" But I think it's a risk. Can they avoid putting cracks in all that he did before by weighing it down with some retrofit narrative now. Tremendous talent. Huge impact on starting the modern era of the MCU. They weren't the same without him. And now he's back with the ability to reinvigorate the fans.
Kinda sounds familiar, like Albert Pujols '22.
Jackson: If the Cardinals have to release Gallegos, are they on the hook for the 6.5 million Team Option for 2025? Or do they just have to cover his 500k buyout?
DG: They have to cover his buyout, and if he's signed they only cover the amount above the prorated minimum salary. His new team has to cover the portion of the minimum salary.
Helena: Derrick, Why so many empty seats? I understand 2023 empty seats. There are more 2024 empty seats than the product deserves, IMO.
DG: It's NOT just the baseball. There are a lot of reasons, and we could tumble into a long discussion about how costs are going up. Inflation. There are a lot of other things for people to do with their free time and their dollars, if they choose to spend those dollars at all. For example, people are choosing how to use their entertainment dollar in different ways -- or have less to spend on entertainment. Throw in the losing record of a year ago and the losing record to start this season. All of it comes in to play. The Cardinals have yet to capture the imagination of the fans for walk-up crowds in the way that, say, Paul Skenes does for his starts in Pittsburgh (and still that tickets-sold crowd was less than the Cardinals start with each game).
Lennie: Is it fair to say that we don't really have a spot for Saggese or Edman?
DG: It is not. One could be the starting CF.
The other the starting 2B.
Alex: If they can't land a 1-2 starter I don't see much of a playoff path, which means might be best to be sellers? But its a fine line between knowing if they can get that starter before the deadline
DG: And also knowing what other teams look like or are playing like on the brink of October. Not like many people had Arizona being the NL team to beat this time a year ago, and yet they very much deserved to be considered as such by the time October arrived. That's the thing right. Don't want to be the team that has that even has that flicker of potential -- and extinguish the possibility in July.
Lennie: Is Gorman available for the right deal?
DG: Sure. But that's not really news. His name has come up before, there's teams interested in him, and the Cardinals see a move there as dealing from depth. You used the phrase that is always going to get the affirmative answer: right deal. They'll talk about anyone for the right deal, as long they're defining what that is.
Mark: Regarding the attendance question, couldn't it well be that fans don't have championship expectations anymore.
DG: Yes, and also you know the entertainment dollar stuff. The reasons contain multitudes, and if we poll the 40,000 people who purchase tickets and 40,000 who don't we could get 80,000 varying degrees of answers, on the low side.
But the general theme will be the success on the field, the aura of the team -- to quote the team -- and the cost at a time when people, perhaps even you, are highly aware of how much they're spending on entertainment when costs elsewhere have also gone up.
Jackson: Tommy Edman has a career .803 OPS against left handed pitchers. For a team in need of a right handed outfielder to help against lefties, is he not the perfect fit?
DG: Sure would seem so, yes.
At least he'd be a boost.
JohnB.: What does Ivan Herrera need to do to get back on the major league roster? Crushing the ball at AAA doesn't appear to be enough. Does he need to show that he can control the running game at catcher, or is his best option to learn another position?
DG: Improve at several of the requirements of his position, at catcher, or be considered by the Cardinals to be advancing at the DH spot or another position. That would have to happen as well as have someone create an opening for him to make that move up to the majors -- that could be injury, trade, or ineffectiveness. The latter of which is not happening at all at the moment. Improving at catcher includes controlling the running game and improving his arm strength. That is one of the things he's doing at Class AAA is going through an arm-strengthening program. His bat is definitely a plus at catcher, well above average, so keeping him at catcher makes sense as long as that's possible, and he shows the ability to make that possible. His bat at DH, not the same, relative to position.
Kevin in DC: We could not throw anyone out all weekend. Every single was a double. What is the issue?
DG: Washington has the second-most steals in the majors, so they're going to go go go go go against anybody, and the Cardinals had some lapses in holding runners on or limiting their jumps when they knew it was coming from the Nationals. Some of those steals were going to happen with even the best vigilance. A few could have been avoided -- like the one of third Sunday with the runaway lead.
Mark: I live near Buffalo, and fans will mortgage their left arm for tickets, as long as their contending...
DG: For 1/10th the amount of games. Not exactly comparing flats to drums.
Taylor: I saw a report indicating the White Sox asked for Jordan Walker for Fedde. Would the Cardinals consider moving Walker for a mid (if you beleive he is truly changed pitcher going forward) to back of the rotation arm like that?
DG: Did that pass your sniff test? I am highly skeptical. Aren't the Cardinals criticized roundly for being uber-protective of their prized prospects? And here is a conversation of trading one of the top prospects in the minors for 8 months of a starter who 12 months ago was reinventing himself in the KBO. I don't blame the White Sox for asking. That's the job. Ask for the moon. Ask for a star. Fine. But eventually come back to gravity.
lizkingwt: 1) Does Mozeliak remain committed to stepping away from baseball operations after the 2025 season? 2) Is there a sense of to what degree ownership influences baseball operations and the decisions they make? When I ask that second question, I am not thinking about it simply in terms of budget; I'm thinking more so in terms of philosophy. It's safe to say that baseball operations under Mozeliak is a conservative decision-making outfit. Is that directed by ownership, influenced by ownership, chosen by ownership, etc.. I reckon I'm trying to get of sense of how much difference in thought and action we could expect to be acceptable via a new POBO under ownership.
DG: 1) He has not changed his stance from previous comments. I haven't checked with him monthly on this because his comments haven't changed, and he's repeated some of them to different audiences in that time.
2) Absolutely. This has been a hallmark of DeWitt's ownership for more than two decades, and it was the case regardless of who was leading baseball operations. Bill DeWitt Jr. was heavily involved in baseball decisions. You want anecdotal? Consider the evening when they traded for Matt Holliday and DeWitt told me was at his home with laptops open and going over and over and over the scouting reports and internal info on the prospects they were giving up, and whether that was going to be the right move. The Cardinals' pivot toward analytics -- driven by him. Ownership is, as you'd expect, heavily involved in guiding the team and its decisions. Plus, DeWitt has always acknowledged taking a real interest in the minors, prospects, and young players, and that is reflected in some of the things he'd like the Cardinals to be (and they have been, but now need to do better).
Ed AuBuchon: Has Mo talked to Seattle? They have at least 5 starters that are talented and controllable.
DG: The Cardinals should have talked to all 29 other teams at this point, or they're not keeping up with the other 29 teams. Specifically to Seattle -- the Cardinals had talks with the Mariners about starters before, going back before this season, and there was some thought they could line up for a move. You might recall the Post-Dispatch's report on their interest in Logan Gilbert. Interest didn't manifest in momentum. Hard to see where the two teams are generating that either. But, yes, teams all talk.
Give me one second here. Thanks for the patience.
Going to need more than a second. There's info coming.
***
OK. Well, that took some time -- and many interviews and multiple stories. And we're back. Let's dive in to a few of the questions here late Monday.
Steve O: what is the Cardinals record in extra innings. They don't seem to be as motivated as the other teams.
DG: The Cardinals are 5-8 in extra innings. I don't agree with your assessment on motivation or even how you would measure that other than with the win-loss record and I have hard time believing that a loss is reflective of a lack of motivation. The other team wants to win, too.
Skip W-G: On your August 2022 BPIB episode with Cardinals GM Michael Girsch, you discussed weighing the cost to acquire talent via trade versus the cost to acquire it via free agency - Girsch called it a “difficult balance†but also correctly noted “that’s the jobâ€. 2022 Quintana was the example used on that episode - he signed for $2M with the Pirates, but ended up costing 6 years of Oviedo to acquire at the deadline. Critically, both Fedde (and Pham) were *extremely* available at affordable rates via FA this past offseason, but the FO’s focus to make good on the Matz signing as an SP got in the way of adding talent like Fedde. So yes, the cost of Pham and Fedde was fairly affordable in terms of talent (1.5 years of Edman and a low level prospect) - but it could have only cost money if the FO hadn’t been focused on seeing their Matz investment hit. In the 2022 BPIB episode, Girsch acknowledged the tradeoff isn’t ideal, but viewed it as the way of doing business. Do you think the “certainty†gained from the timing of the trade deadline is worth the costs of both talent AND money teams pay to get it?
DG: It's a fair point, but keep in mind the costs are more than you outlined. Both Fedde and Pham would have "cost" a roster spot -- and also the Cardinals did not really have the offer that Fedde wanted at the time. They had just signed three starters and had two under contract, so Fedde wanted as chance to start, not a chance to be a sixth starter, as he would have been with the Cardinals' roster set up after signing Gray, Gibson, and Lynn and committing to all three as starter. Pham's a bit difference, but still a roster spot. That has to be baked into the discussion, too. You're exactly right though: This deal isn't going to be the best example of it, because as of right now, when it comes to major-league talent the Cardinals ended up with more years of guaranteed control than the Dodgers did with Edman.
Tim in NJ: I have read that Nolan Gorman is not in the lineup tonight. Could he be on the move or is it just a bad matchup for him?
DG: A better matchup for Matt Carpenter. And, yes, Eovaldi is the type of pitcher that has given Gorman difficulty before. But more so the career success Carpenter has had against Eovaldi. With the home run tonight, he improved to 7-for-13 against the right-hander.
Stan the Fan: Who gets replaced in the rotation now? Pallante has been pitching well. I am guessing Lynn, but he will not be happy.
DG: TBD. Mozeliak told us today that it's "most likely" going to Pallante. But he said the discussion was ongoing. They would not rule out a six-man rotation for a bit either. That's at least on the mind because of the recent schedule.
JKB: Don't ya hate when work gets in the way of a good chat?
DG: Nah. A good chat is work, too. The goal is all the same -- with the chat, with the articles. Just a busy few days, as you know.
Stan the Fan: With about 24 hours before the deadline, is Mo not done? Could we see a Carlson for a relief pitcher deal coming? Trading Carlson opens up a spot for Pham....
DG: Those could be separate deals. Given what they were able to do today and what it cost them, the Cardinals are still interested in making a bid for a reliever. Yes, they will try and trade Dylan Carlson. Those do not have to be in the same deal.
Eddie: Do you see adding a better bat at dh. Carpenter seems to be a waste of roster space. Thank you
DG: Tommy Pham will be DH sometimes. So, they did that.
Tbird728: Do you know the reasoning behind flipping Contreras and Burleson between #2 and #3 in the order? Seems like Burly was hitting better in the 2 slot. Why fix something that wasn't broken?
DG: Handedness of the opposing pitcher, or the style of the pitcher from that handedness. In short, it's the matchup guiding this -- and, significantly, the wish to avoid stacking the left-handed batters in a way that makes them all neatly in a row for a lefty reliever later in the game.
saytreykid: This Edman deal looks like a repeat of the Montgomery deal with the Yankees. trade a player not currently playing but has a track record for some players you need now.
DG: But that wasn't the Montgomery deal at all. Sure it was current needs, but it was so much more. The Cardinals got Montgomery for the next year, too, and so maybe it's more like the Fedde-Edman deal than you described but in a completely different way than you descriebd.
Eddie: Any hopes of moving Matt Carpenter. He seems to be a roster waste of space.
DG: He just hit a homer, and you seem to have a crusade here that just isn't anything that the Cardinals are looking to do. There has got to be an overlap between the fans who send messages like this into chats, Xwitter, or message boards and will also be the first two vote for Carpenter to the Cardinals' Hall of Fame.
A look at what the Cardinals got in return for pitchers they sold and what it reveals about the costs they can expect to pay shopping for pitchers now.
Andthenisaid: Do Fangraphs and Baseball Reference rerun their simulations every time a roster change is made?
DG: They do it more often than that because they take into account events from the previous day that put results in amber. And then move from there. So that would also suggest injuries are factored in and, sure, deals would shift the predictive model, too.
Kyle: It's being reported that the Cardinals, Dodgers and White Sox are involved in a trade that has sent Tommy Edman to L.A. and Eric Fedde to the Cards
DG: I find this fascinating: When you post this comment to this chat, the story on that trade had already been up on the same web site for a little more than 20 minutes.
Timothy S.: Interesting seeing Pham heading back to STL, potential future trade bait or is this the sign of things ending for Carlson in the Card's OF.
DG: A) They aren't going to trade Tommy Pham less than a few hours after getting him. B) The Post-Dispatch has been reporting since the weekend that the Cardinals are exploring possible deals for Carlson.
John: Doesn't Brent Rooker seem like the perfect trade candidate? Not a FA until 2028, can play OF, DH, 1B. No doubt the cost would be extremely high. Walker, Tink, Mathews, ++? What do you think
DG: You bet he's an appealing trade candidate. The list of teams that would like to trade for Rooker is long. Alas, the list of teams that is actually interested in trading Rooker is short and it's the one team that matters, Oakland. That's a deal the A's would make in the offseason, no? When they could get more teams involved in a real bid-up, possibly.
Amir: Appreciate and respect the commitment - thanks for coming back and answering these
DG: You bet. Had to abruptly leave so there were questions still lingering here. I can catch up scoring the game later, no it's time to find some good questions in the chat. Fair warning: Won't be as long usual though.
Stan the Fan: Another quick question about the trade. I just realized we also got Pham, too. Will he platoon in CF or DH against LH pitchers? Are the problems in the past not an issue, when he was so outspoken? Who will be sent down? Thanks.
DG: He will CF some, DH some, corner outfielder some and yes be against left-handed pitchers, and he will be off the bench quite a bit in late innings to face lefties. The problems of the past weren't a problem in the past, so not sure why they would all of sudden be a problem so far in removed from them not being problems at all. Who will be sent down? TBD. But that choice is coming soon, and the PD has previously reported what the Cardinals are trying to do to clear that spot on the roster.
Bryan C: If Mo only gave up Edman and got Pham and Fedde in return, I understand what the Dodgers gave up but Mo will be the President of the year! What a STEAL!!!!!
DG: I'm going to tiptoe cautiously into this answer.
Looking at what Houston gave up for Kikuchi, what is being lobbed about for Flaherty, what some of these other deals are taking to get deals done ... goodness. The Cardinals traded from depth, traded a player they had not seen all season, and traded 8 months of control of a major-league player for two major-league players who will contribute this week and come with a total of 10 months of control. That just might be a steal, yeah.
We'll see. But the reaction to this deal in some corners of baseball suggest maybe I need to revisit the use of the Obi Wan Kenobi GIF and my answer about the Jedi Mind Trick.
saytreykid: I will miss Edman, would have like to see him in CF, even a platoon with Siani. Long term, Busch Stadium is a pitchers park, so why don't we load up on pitching. Pitching keeps you in games - offenses run hot and cold but good pitching is a constant. we Dont' have many high end pitching prospects, so trade in the offseason seems to be the MO. Can't trade Walker, Scott or any other position player now because you would be selling low. Gorman? Lars Nootbar? I would trade either one becasue they can be replaced. What's your take?
DG: That was a driving philosophy behind what they did this offseason. They said after years of coming up shy with pitching -- something the newspaper pointed out over the past three years -- that they were going to lean into the ballpark, add pitching, get that depth that they had lacked, spend on collecting quality starts and see where it takes them. You have suggested part of what drove their moves of the past 12 months. I would be hesitant to trade Gorman or Nootbaar because they are not so easily replaced and the importance of left-handed production to a team, especially a team that wants to succeed in the postseason, can not be understated. The Cardinals have spent too long searching for a left-handed presence for the lineup to them so quickly trade two possible OPS/SLG contributors. They are not easily replaced, in my view.
GMGirsch (Parody From X): I assume the Cardinals are still looking to add in the bullpen? Really their last thing to do unless an opportunity presents itself elsewhere?
DG: Yes, they are looking for relievers. They are engaging in talks with teams about trading for a reliever. No need to assume. You can count on it. They've said as much on the record, and sources have also confirmed that's what they're doing.
Greg: This team needs their rotation, no matter who is in it, to pitch past the 5th inning consistently. The Cards bullpen is really good but they are wearing out
DG: A lot of truth packed into the short comment.
John W: Ok one guy takes Geo's open spot but who is being let go to make room Crawford?
DG: Brandon Crawford is already on the roster, so no one needs to make room for him. Plus, with no Edman on the horizon, Crawford is the Cardinals' backup shortstop, same as it ever was.
saw: So is Michael Siani the CFer of the present and future now?
DG: Present vs. RHP for sure. He's the starter. The Cardinals' time-honored practice of trading outfielders because someone has outplayed the other to claim the starting job continues. It happened to Rasmus (Jay). It happened to Jay (Pham, right?). It happened to Pham (Bader) and Bader (Carlson) ... With Lane Thomas in there somewhere.
The future? Victor Scott II has a say.
Andthenisaid: Do you think Mo will keep pursuing Brebbia, or are there preferable targets for the bullpen?
DG: Yes. Brebbia or a reliever like Brebbia, but Brebbia has at least been a reliever of interest for the Cardinals.
Kevin in DC: Do you think the Cards would include Walker in a deal for Fedde and Luis Robert?
DG: Nope. Not even if it was bandied about through the course of spitballing for possible matches before Dodgers involvement.
Mike: Good Afternoon Derrick. I just went to a game in Seattle between the tied for 1st Mariners and Astros. The place was I'm guessing 95% filled. The atmosphere was fun and the crowd engaged throughout the game. It was so fun. In my experience, we haven't had that here in several years. What do you think it would take for the Cardinals to get that back? A big signing? A deep playoff run? Thank you.
DG: Either of those things. Some kind of style of player or performance by a player that galvanizing the fan base and becomes an event. Sonny Gray has that kind of talent to be an event pitcher, and that is certainly the Cardinals would welcome. He hasn't yet pitched that consistently or even had that breakout game. Masyn Winn has what the kids call aura, so maybe his style of game draws folks to the ballpark. The Cardinals are missing that sensation of De La Cruz stealing bases, Skenes sizzling 100, and so on -- and yet, I type that and realize the Cardinals are consistently outdrawing both of those teams even on those days. So, that brings it back to winning and playing compelling, meaningful ballgames, and it wouldn't hurt to have a dominant streak of them too. Fans come for that.
wordbird: Hi Derrick, a lingering draft question. At one point, the Cards were among the teams receiving a competitive balance pick, but haven't the past couple drafts. Can you refresh how those are handed out, and what led the Cards to get one in the past but not lately? Thanks for the nop-notch coverage.
DG: They're based on a draw. A team's winning percentage and market size are part of the factors that are used in the equation that determines the odds of drawing. There were a couple of times recently that the Cardinals had among the lowest chances in the group of getting a pick and they got one. The year the Cubs complained about it, the Cardinals had an absurdly small chance of getting a pick because of their winning record and just beat the odds to do it. It's a lottery system like that, and the Cardinals haven't had good odds, and their previous luck is now balancing out.
Tim: Will Luken Baker get another shot? He seems like a forgotten man, but it he's not next year's likely starter at 1b for the Cardinals, he will be someone's starter in the majors, right?
DG: That is an apt description and his path back to the majors just got another obstacle put in front of it with the acquisition of Tommy Pham. There should seemed to be a scenario where it's Baker that ended up getting a look after the deadline as the Cardinals' right-handed bat off the bench. Now it will take an injury ahead of him to make that happen, not a trade to streamline the outfield, because that's where Pham comes in.
Helena: DG. Good morning, I hope that you have excitement headed your way. Oli has mentioned RHB in more than one interview. The "it needs to come from within" is understood. Yet even envisioning the average bat of Taylor Ward on the lineup is significant let alone a bat
DG: Marmol has been among the voices lobbying for the right-handed bat addition, for sure. That said, even any of the general descriptions he gave for that bat was off the bench, spot starts, looks against lefties -- and the real thrust of any improvement for the Cardinals is going to have to come, again, from the right-handed bats already in the middle of the lineup, or designed to be there.
Alex: also, do you think they could get a no 2 level starter for jordan walker?
DG: If they were entertaining such conversations -- and there's no evidence they were -- they should aim higher.
Sue: Hi Derrick thanks for the chats - they are the highlight of my Monday! Once Gallagos was DFA'd, does that lower the return the Cards could get for him? Why would a team trade for him when they can wait until his 7 days are up and just sign him? Am I missing something, or did the Cards give up some leverage by making that move? Thanks.
DG: It does yes. That deal would not be as much about the return as it would be what the team was willing to take on salary wise. What would that look like because you're right the Cardinals don't have much leverage there. The team that trades for him would want to do so before another team took him. That's all. You make the trade so that you know you get him and on terms you want, not the full salary that you pluck off waivers. Save money. Jump to the head of the line. That's why you do the trade. Sign him? Well, then he's a free agent so he can sign anywhere, and you must trade for him to make sure that's with you. Only way.
Tackleberry: Could Lynn be your closer? His first innings are usually very efficient, he could max out and be done. His general mentality seems to fit that of a closer. If so, could they cash in the Helsley now?
DG: This a question I did not expect -- and what a wild pretzel you've twisted yourself into when Ryan Helsley is just fine at closer. He's doing peachy. The Cardinals are going to see how far this ride takes them.
Kim Miller: Derrick, thanks for your time. Did the Cardinals kick the tires of Whit Merrifield before the Braves picked him up? To me there were a lot of plusses. Right handed bat, speed, defensive flexibility. I think Mo might have missed something there.
DG: Can we first note that he hit .190 against lefties so far this season? Not a match. Not from what I could tell from asking or even looking at how he would fit. A lot of what they had, but, yes, the right-handed bat, only one that slugs .329 this year against lefties and the Cardinals aren't looking for that.
BL: Enjoyed the new Deadpool movie last night, but this continues my line of thinking and how it compares to the Cardinals - the MCU and locals, of late, seem to be in a stale state in which the timeline has gotten old and the only recent movies I've enjoyed were bringing back old faces that are fun to watch again. I'm not sure if it's the multiverse timeline that has me bored by the MCU of late, or their sheer saturation of movies/tv shows of late, but like the Cardinals, the product itself is a bit meh with a few flashes of the old magic I so enjoyed a few years ago...
DG: Poetic. What's missing is the inside jokes with the winks, though the return of Tommy Pham will bring some of those. Maybe this trade only continues the comparison you see ...
Mike: Any chance at fairbanks?
DG: There is a chance. Not ruled out by anyone I've spoken to.
Ben: I know health can change things quickly, but do you think instead of using prospect capital when demand/return for relief pitching is so high, that help could return in the form of Matz being moved to the pen?
DG: That is on the table as a possibility -- whether they add a reliever or not. Mozeliak said he expects Matz to pitch for the Cardinals again this season, and we've seen how that could work in relief, and we've seen the Cardinals recently cycle through their looks from the left side of the bullpen. Matz's return could come at a time when that becomes part of his role, a big part of how he contributes.
Amir: It seems like the Cardinals were able to improve, at least on paper, both run prevention and run generation. I feel confident in the team's ability to play above .500 baseball, but I would personally be surprised to see a record better than 86-76. Is this type of regular season enough to give Mozeliak & Marmol another shot in their roles in 2025? Does how they fare in the postseason, assuming they make it, mean more than regular season performance?
DG: All parties have said that the goal is to win the NL Central. Ownership has added that they want to see a deeper run into October. Why not just hold them to the standards they've articulated? Win the division or not. And then, get into October for a deeper run or not. It sure seems like they've set the standards by which they should be judged at season's end.
Speaking of end ...
The game ended awhile ago. The trade deadline is not yet at its end, but it sure is nearing the end. The time I have to write here in the press box tonight is coming to an end. Seems like a good time to start my drive home and then get back to poking around on the next move the Cardinals will make.
Thanks for being patient with the chat today. Same time, same thing next year at the trade deadline chat.
-30-
(for now)
The two-run home run on Friday night from Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt was the veteran first baseman's 2,000th his of his career, making him the fifth active player to reach that milestone.