Other than a Blue Jays fan’s intrepid tracking of private planes, some solid gumshoe reporting by baseball writers and one manager’s unscripted and unauthorized candor, not much about the courtship of Shohei Ohtani has slipped through the veil insisted upon by the megastar free agent and his representatives.
But its influence on the rest of the market?
Well, that’s no secret.
An otherwise stagnant MLB winter meetings climaxed late Wednesday night with the New York Yankees acquiring MVP-caliber outfielder Juan Soto from the divesting San Diego Padres. It was the first big shove of movement for a market that otherwise has been stalled waiting on Ohtani. Info gleams for an instant, then it’s naught once more. And baseball waits. Few teams — if any — are entirely free from setting their clocks to Ohtani time and counting the days until the American League MVP’s decision.
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That definitely is the situation for a team shopping an outfielder and unsure if the offers might sweeten once the top players on the market move. A team like the Cardinals.
“We’re not dabbling all across (the market); there are things that are still trying to get defined,†said John Mozeliak, the Cardinals’ president of baseball operations, before leaving the team’s suite at Gaylord Opryland Resort and departing Nashville, Tennessee, on Wednesday evening. “I do think there is some fluidity in this market because teams may do something that may open up something else. Even though we were hoping to do something this week, I don’t know if that will happen.â€
The Cardinals are exploring trade opportunities involving outfielder Tyler O’Neill, and they have also had teams express interest in younger outfielders Dylan Carlson and Alec Burleson. It’s hardly that the teams pursuing Ohtani see a trade with the Cardinals as the next alternative — but the ripples one decision makes will eventually reach them.
Ohtani is both the best pitcher and the best hitter on the market, and teams looking to pay a record, mythical price for baseball’s unicorn are going to still be searching for talent if and when he chooses another suitor.
Cody Bellinger, a former MVP, offers arguably the top free-agent outfield bat available for a team that doesn’t sign Ohtani. And the options follow from there. With Soto traded, the depth of available outfielders moves to KBO standout Jung Hoo Lee and thins quickly. Teoscar Hernandez, Jorge Soler, Randal Grichuk, Harrison Bader, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. are all in the mix, and several, if not most, will command multiyear commitments. Joc Pederson and Tommy Pham are also free agents. That’s where trade possibilities come in. O’Neill is a one-year commitment.
And the trade market did get some definition in the past 72 hours.
Consider the Yankees.
No, not the haul of talent they packaged to land Soto, the 25-year-old wunderkind who already has 160 homers, three top-six MVP finishes and four Silver Slugger Awards. Earlier in the week, the Yankees acquired outfielder Alex Verdugo from Boston. He, like O’Neill, has a year of control remaining. Verdugo is 27, O’Neill 28. He has a career wins above replacement of 11.1 to O’Neill’s 10.0. O’Neill has two Gold Glove Awards in left field, but Verdugo has the more valuable durability — with at least 600 plate appearances in three consecutive years. O’Neill has one season with more than 500 plate appearances, and he’s been limited by injury to 649 total from 2022 to 2023.
Few of the available outfielders have a 6.1-WAR season like O’Neill, but injury concerns are going to shape any offer presented the Cardinals.
To acquire Verdugo, the Yankees sent the rival Red Sox a trio of pitchers, including their 12th-rated prospect, 23-year-old right-hander Richard Fitts. He had a 3.48 ERA in 27 starts at Class AA. Sandwiched with Fitts were 28-year-old right-handed reliever Greg Weissert, who had a 2.90 ERA in the minors this past season, and right-handed pitcher Nicholas Judice, a recently drafted 22-year-old. In exchange for O’Neill, the Cardinals seek a reliever who can bolster the big league bullpen, upside pitching depth for the organization or, if it’s possible, packaging him within a larger deal to acquire a boost for the front of the rotation.
The Cardinals have, according to sources, targeted a return they want for O’Neill and stuck to it so far. Among the teams believed to have interest are Kansas City and Seattle, and there are other unidentified clubs looking for offense who have talked to the Cardinals. The Cardinals have had ongoing meetings with representatives for free-agent relievers and, in some cases, signaled trading O’Neill will give them clarity on what they can spend or what they need in these free-agent moves. The Cardinals want to add two relievers their bullpen options.
If they need to move O’Neill first to sign a reliever, then they need the market to give them clarity on what they can expect in return, and for that to happen, they need demand to be defined by supply leaving the market.
And so, downstream from Ohtani, the Cardinals wait, too.
“Sometimes it’s kind of a dam that gives way and a lot of things happen,†Cubs general manager Carter Hawkins told Chicago reporters in Nashville this week.
The Cubs are one of the few teams known to be pursuing Ohtani, and their president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer vehemently refuted a report that their chances had “waned.†Toronto’s general manager Ross Atkins held a Zoom call with Toronto reporters this past week and, with a blank wall behind him, refused to say where he was. The Athletic reported that day that Ohtani visited the Jays’ spring training complex in Florida, and a Jays fan tracked two private jets departing from a nearby airport — one for Anaheim, California, and one for Nashville, site of the winter meetings.
The Giants reportedly visited with Ohtani, and this past week, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts confessed that his team met at Dodger Stadium with the two-time MVP. He even detailed how many hours they spent together.
“It’s pretty clear he’s a priority for us,†Roberts said.
The Dodgers front office told the Los Angeles Times it was “surprised†by Roberts’ comments, which contrasted with how mum other teams remain and how Ohtani’s representatives prioritized discretion from interested teams. Still, whatever Roberts said publicly or Toronto maintained privately, neither was likely to sway Ohtani’s final choice. No matter how quiet his agent has kept the sweepstakes, it’s the same as any other: Money talks.
Spectators to this theater, the Cardinals used their time to get ahead of the market and sign three free-agent starters, including prized right-hander Sonny Gray, instead of waiting, chasing other options with longer timetables and leaving themselves vulnerable to coming up empty on pitching. Mozeliak agreed with the description that his group flipped the annual meetings. Whereas the GM meetings in November are often used for exploration and conversation and seeding for future moves, the Cardinals wanted to make strides toward deals then like they would in the December’s winter meetings.
This past week then became their explorations and conversations.
“We went into this much more open-minded, much more exploratory,†Mozeliak said. “If something could get done, we were going to be happy with that. But we weren’t going to leave here like we had to accomplish something.â€
There are still relievers available.
There are still teams interested in outfielders.
There are still several weeks before Christmas.
The Cardinals can afford to wait and see how that pays off.
No rush, Shohei.
“There’s time,†Mozeliak said.