MINNEAPOLIS— Quite an eventful Sunday for the Cardinals. They got an early morning wakeup call to leave their hotel rooms. Their offense continued to snooze for most of the afternoon. And, when the Minnesota Twins gave them an inch, they took the series.
The Cardinals return to Ƶ after a dads-weekend trip to Minnesota and their second consecutive series victory against a playoff-caliber team.
The biggest test yet awaits them now.
The next four days will be spent playing against a team directly ahead of them in the National League wild-card race. The Cardinals cannot catch the San Diego Padres even with a sweep. They can only chomp so far into the lead, actually. But a botched series or, worse yet, a Padres sweep and the Cardinals steep hill back into contention starts to look a lot like a wall.
Oh, and for an added dash of drama, former Cardinals manager Mike Shildt is leading the Padres in their pursuit of the NL West title.
I can only imagine how many questions that will prompt.
So, let's get to it. You've got questions. I've got a keyboard. Let's target a brisk, but lively three hours of chatting about baseball, the Cardinals, and, if you wish, the hotel life*.
* The concept, not the book. Unless you really want to dig into the novel.
As always, questions are not edited for spelling or grammar. They are ignored if they are vulgar or contain swearing or threats of harm to other individuals. Answers avoid all of those things, too, and a complete, real-time transcript of the chat will be presented below the window for easier reading on the device of your choice.
Away we go.
Ryan: A quick search of the PD you can find numerous headlines with the words Sonny Gray and Ace in the same sentence. Is that a mandate from the sports editor or is that each of yours opinion? In case you didn't know, nobody who follows ball ever thought those same thoughts. If someone did, they need to find a new line of work. #2 SP absolutely. Good guy. Yep.
Derrick Goold: It is not a mandate from the editor. The individual writers of each story are now required to write the headlines that appear online. They are sometimes changed by people who have a better, clearer, tighter headline or one that is more eye-catching, either for readers or for searches. Headline science has changed a lot, especially in the past few years, but it is the writers who a vast majority of the time are now writing the headlines. I'd be happy to answer for mine, if you have any questions -- as writing headlines is a discipline that I've had to get better at, for sure.
Might I suggest an actual search, and not a quick search of the PD articles?
Nate: How much pressure has the Cards lack of offense put on the pitching staff? All season they've had to be nearly perfect for 9 innings to get a win.
DG: I wish I could measure it in Newtons, because that's what it is. It's a lot, it's metric and it's gravity and it's been a lot of strain on the pitching staff. I
am sure you've heard of the competition Odyssey of the Mind, and well there used to be an annual challenge in it for building a balsa wood bridge or tower that held weight, and the one that held the most weight without splintering or cracking was declared the winner. Some of these balsa-wood structures because of their design could really withstand the force of stacks of weight.
Well, the Cardinals bullpen is that balsa structure. Its design on the backend and its use have carried that weight because the offense has provided so little margin for error.
Well, it didn't take long for our first question involving physical violence. I did just bring that up, people. So ...
Joliet Dave: What does it take to activate a retired player?
DG: A new contract.
Ed: Are you still in Minnesota?
DG: Yes, for the time being. Time to chat.
David: Considering the cost of pitching these days is picking up Gibson and Lynn's options a no brainer and then the Cardinals go into the offseason with a surplus of starters to deal from?
DG: Excellent question. There is no such thing as a bad one-year contract, and there are a lot of good things about having pitching depth -- without the promise of spots in the rotation. It sure seems like the Cardinals have every reason to keep Kyle Gibson a Cardinal. He should have been a Cardinal long ago, he's pitched as expected, he has value, his presence in the clubhouse has been vital to this team, and he's just a good fit. Health will be a big part of the decision with Lance Lynn on both sides -- and so too will direction. Lynn wants to win, has got a feel for the current Cardinals after returning to the club, and may have some thoughts on where they're headed next and if he's a fit. There is a strong argument that both options, health allowing, are gimme putts, for sure. I think the argument against them would be if the Cardinals choose to utter the word they have avoided for years now and say they don't think they can do in their city, with their history.
Rebuild.
If the Cardinals don't pick up the option for a pitcher like Gibson, that is a tell.
Ron: I wonder if DeWitt sees the empty seats and consider a rebuild
DG: He sees the empty seats. His point has been -- and so has the point of the other leaders of the club -- that a rebuild would invite more, not less.
Ed: Maybe not a rebuild but going with a youth movement to see what they really have and need.
DG: You say tomato. I say tomato.
Joliet Dave: In one of the recent games, T Pham had some contact trouble, to the point that the trainer and Marmol came out. Is he still having the eye disorder?
DG: Honestly, that's like asking if I still wear glasses. My eyes haven't improved since sixth grade when I started needing glasses. I haven't had surgery to correct my eyesight. And at least that's available to me. Would be great if there were completely corrective treatments for Pham, Mike Shildt, and others with their keratoconus, which is a weakening and thinning of the cornea. Pham is constantly working to maintain his eyesight. He will shift contact lenses multiple times throughout BP trying to get just the right set -- either to help experiment so that what he learns benefits others or so that he has the clearest vision for the time of day, conditions, etc., etc. The work he puts in to make this possible is incredible. Full stop. And that he adds in the element of trying to give feedback on lenses that may benefit others -- that should be applauded. But, yes, he is still putting in that time because he's going to live with his eyes and let's hope treatment only improves. Maybe he'll play a part in that.
If you're interested in reading more on Pham and what he's pushed through and played through in a remarkable career with an eye condition that has ended some careers, here's one of the first articles on it, from 2017.
Cards fan in Bama: Quinn Matthews chance of being on the big league club next year ?
DG: If the Cardinals were preparing for the postseason in September instead of scrambling for it, it was at least possible that he would be part of the conversation for this year. So, next year, absolutely.
Cory: How many games back would the Cards have to get before giving full-time playing time to Walker or Saggese?
DG: Not games back. Games under. Don't discount the history of being the first Cardinals team with back-to-back losing seasons since the 1950s. I'm not sure if that gets talked about much, but it will -- that's a rather ugly feat to achieve, no? To your specific question, I'm not sure there is a number like that. Saggese would be replacing, who? Donovan? Arenado? Do you want to see Gorman get that playing time, or where does he fit in? Not sure what series of events would lead to the outcome you mention.
Ed: Was listening to the game on radio when VS2 was picked off 3rd and John Rooney said it was a rookie mistake. Pop Warner maybe should share the blame?
DG: Or, you know, the player. It is OK for the players to take responsibilities for their actions and their mistakes. In my experience -- and this is only increasing -- players are far more likely to take accountability for when they do something wrong than fans seem to want to ask of them. It's a weird dynamic. When the Twins second baseman threw the ball into left field yesterday that allowed the Cardinals to win, did you think, 'Goodness, glad his coach really messed up?' It's OK to just the rookie made a mistake. Vazquez didn't really hide his intent to throw over there, when you watch the play as it happens.
Bryan C: Why is Baker not starting? How can the Cardinals see if Baker can succeed in the MLB with him sitting on the bench and pinch hitting every now and then?
DG: He's likely going to start at DH against lefties. So he will be starting. One thing to keep in mind is the Cardinals are not interested in "seeing what (Player X) can do in MLB" for the future. They are, at the moment, trying to save their season and return to contention. That is how they see it. You can disagree with the possibility or likelihood of that. But if you're expecting them to make lineup decisions on the future or seeing if a young player can handle MLB, that' ain't happening right now. They're not interested in that at the moment.
Bryan C: Do you think the Cardinals will place any of their players on wavers before Sept 1 to see if a contending team will clam them?
DG: Please see the answer above. Doesn't seem like the season could spiral that much in the next four days for the Cardinals to chance shedding roster/salaries in that way to just see if a team picks up the player to make them playoff eligible. Kittredge would be one example of that. And are the Cardinals going to give up their notion of clawing back into this? I guess the Padres could really force them to consider it with a sweep ... Just seems unlikely. The waiver practice, as you know, has changed from the days of almost everyone slipping through it. Some players will go through. I'm just looking over the Cardinals roster and not seeing many candidates for the exercise.
Ed: VS2 was picked off and it's his fault period. Maybe the coach should of said something! Thanks, need to run but will read rest of the chat later.
DG: I'm quite certain the coach said something. If you have proof that he did not, please let me know. Thanks for joining the chat.
TomBruno23: By this time next week will Aaron Judge be able to say he has homered against 29 MLB teams?
DG: Entirely possible. And he may stall there for his career, never joining the 30 club.
TomBruno23: Red Lobster is closing another 23 restaurants.
DG: And someone is blaming a hitting coach, I'm sure.
TomBruno23: What XM channel should we listen to during the chat? Kind of need to mix it up from the usual Classic Vinyl, Classic Rewind, Phish, GD and Lithium. Thanks.
DG: Make yourself a playlist that reflects the questions and my answers. Starts with some mellow, easy listening, tosses in a few jams that go on and on and on for 12 minutes or so, maybe some Crowes, a dash of New Orleans brass, go local with Gravity Kills, Center field, then maybe mid-era Pearl Jam with a sprinkling of Vs., and then by the end it's NIN and real loud screeching heavy metal.
Capstone: What do you see as the probabilities: Cards make playoffs; Cards finish above .500 but miss playoffs; Cards have losing record. In almost all cases, the Cards need to do much, much better for next year to field a strong playoff caliber team -- the pitching and hitting are both wanting; Cards only team in playoff hunt with negative run differential
DG: That run differential is a) catching up to them and a real issue that speaks to the offensive troubles they've had and b) an example of how bullpen use, bullpen depth, and bullpen performance (not in that order) has been key to keeping them afloat this season. Glad you brought it up. Let's talk probabilities ...
As of today, on FanGraphs, the Cardinals have a 3.5% chance of making the playoffs. That seems fair. Especially given the strength of schedule. If you put the probability at 10% -- one in every 10 scenario -- that wouldn't seem outlandish, but anything above that seems unlikely. That leaves 90% to carve up between the other two outcomes. Again, immediate strength of schedule would suggest the lean would be toward losing record. A finish that goes Colorado-San Francisco for a team out of the race wouldn't exactly invite a kick to the finish -- even if it must for a winning record. I still think that there will be pressure on them to avoid being the first Cardinals clubs to do that in back to back seasons since the 1950s, as pointed out way back in spring training by the Post-Dispatch. So let's accept that premise, and suggest that it's 10/50/40. That seems tidy, round numbers, reasonable.
time: Do you pick and choose commenst or just answer as they come in?
DG: I select them. Some come in half finished. Some come in with threats and vulgarities. So, I do try to pick through them. I also look for the most variety of questions and topics we can get to because sometimes there are dozens that just as the same thing, and would you like to read the same answer over and over?
When it gets tricky is I only see three, four, maybe seven questions at a time and there are dozens and dozens more, so I may miss on some questions that are great while I'm answering another one. The interface is tricky.
Or, if someone writes a really long question, I only see one and I'm not sure what to do because that really bogs down the chat.
Tim: If Paul Goldschmidt retires this year, who has the better case for the HoF? Votto or Goldschmidt?
DG: Interesting question. Let's take a look at some of the indicators that help frame the discussions, shall we?
Please check window above for image of stats.
It is really close. Votto has more games played, and that gap will close here slightly, of course. Goldschmidt has more of the All-Star Games and individual trophies. Dig deeper into the numbers, and Votto has played 159 more games, but he's reached base 471 more times than Goldschmidt, while still providing that power, too. One of the things that stands out about Votto, to me, is that if I were to tell you a player led the league in hits for seven seasons of his career you would likely go, yep, that's a Hall of Famer, and absolutely Tony Gwynn is a Hall of Famer. Now, what if I tell you there's a player who led the league in not making outs -- quite literally, the act of getting on base -- seven times in his career, would you also go, dang, that's kind of the game right, and he did it seven times? Were they all hits? Nope. But still seven times? That's a Hall of Famer. Votto led the league in OBP seven times in his career. He just had the best rate of NOT GETTING OUT in the National League, and he overlapped his career with some of the best first basemen, including Pujols and then later Goldschmidt. So, the answer could be that Votto has the better case, but that both cases are strong, they're just also different.
time: So if Votto makes it, which a lot of people are saying he should, then Goldie should also.
DG: Numbers would suggest the parallel, yes. And I think consistency in voting is important. I try to think of that always with my ballot.
Craig: Take off your beat reporter cap for a minute and put on your opinion writer cap, and tell us what in the heck, in your opinion, has happened to Nolan
DG: I don't mean to be flip here, but however I write this it's going to come out that way. a) I don't have an "opinion writer cap" because we have excellent columnist at the Post-Dispatch that the newspaper has hired to do that role. Beat writing is cool because it allows me the latitude to offer analysis and also share an opinion that I can prove; it doesn't give me the license to just share my personal opinion, if you will. B) Um, which Nolan?
Ron: Cards planning on keeping goldy and nado or letting one walk amd trade nado?
DG: They intend to keep Arenado. He's signed for a few more years. Goldschmidt, as mentioned before in the chat and misrepresented elsewhere, they'll have that talk with Goldschmidt about what's next and if there is anything that is mutually agreeable for him and for the team. It's quite similar to Adam Wainwright's situation from a few years ago.
TomBruno23: What is the purpose behind the procedural moves of transferring RHP Keiverson Ramirez from DSL to FCL and Austin Love from the Peoria 60-day IL to FCL after the FCL season is over?
DG: Roster management based on where the spots are and the limitations that now exist within the minors. These moves are done to protect players when necessary from being taken in a minor-league Rule 5 draft. Plus, the 60-day IL does not exist when a season is over, and that's true for MLB, too, so you'll see moves like that from one level to another just to free up or clarify rosters.
Capstone: Would/should Cards took to trade Arenado (if he agrees) in off-season even if they must eat salary? His contract is not ageing well. They don't really have a first-rate replacement but the value proposition suggest with declining output suggests they should at least consider it.
DG: They should not. Maybe someone can come up with a way to do this, but given the complexity of the trade, the money coming from Cardinals and deferred money with interest still from the Rockies, how to move that contract and get any reasonable return for the Cardinals just ... it's difficult to find because a) they don't have a replacement as you said, b) there isn't really a pressure on either side to get a change other than a change of results, and c) imagine the optics hit, right? That trade is a centerpiece of the past era, and trading him after ... well, not much October success ... would quite a symbol for the organization at this moment.
time: Cahnces of Schildt and Mo having an on the field convo.?
DG: Coin flip. They've had one before when Shildt was with the Padres. Why would this be any different?
ud: In a chat over the winter I posted that I thought the quality of pitchers we signed would bring us back to 500 but not much more unless we addressed the offense. You mostly defended the club's decision to stand pat on offense and claimed that despite pitchers who would likely give up about the same number of runs as our offense scored last season, they would be the division favorites. At this point can we agree the Cardinals have to find a very good hitter or two in the offseason either by trade or free agency? Soto is out of our range but we need a couple hitters who can give us an OPS of 800 to add to the better parts of our current lineup. I'm skeptical Gorman and Walker are those guys. And equally skeptical we have those guys in our system who could do that for us next season. Do you agree? I highly respect your opinion (though I frequently disagree) but it seems like this team's offense needs a serious overhaul.
DG: All fair, and I'm glad you brought that up. We had a meeting before spring training -- all of the writers at the Post-Dispatch -- and one of the things I outlined to my colleagues was how the Cardinals could have, quietly, one of the deepest and most versatile lineups, and how it was being overlooked. I made the case, point by point, especially point to three players and three elements of their game: Donovan (OBP), Nootbaar (OPS), and Gorman (SLG). I've outlined here and in print the value and importance of lefthanded presences in the lineup, and those three players had the ability to turn a good lineup into one of the best, and it seemed like they were on reasonable track to do so. Gorman had slugged, didn't need the OBP. Donovan could slug, but had the OBP. I did not hinge the lineup on Jordan Walker; did not think his breakout was necessary, just lagniappe if it happened. OK. So, now we know the offense has been an issue. What I missed from my argument/presentation was the performance of the pillars. Not sure anyone saw that coming. And candidly I've looked back and thought -- well, how much should we have considered that, how much evidence or info did we have to bake that into the discussion, so that it's not retrofitted in hindsight. I think it's an unexpected part of this season. The read on the offense was wrong.
How does it get right?
It seems pretty straightforward for the Cardinals. They did not get the production expected from their MVP hitter this season. They do not have him signed for next season. They need that hitter. I'm not sure they're in position to get that hitter in one person, so can they add two, three hitters -- two outside, one internal? -- that in aggregate produce more and make it so that the middle of the order that has been lacking that production gets it, and even spreads to other parts of the lineup.
Welcome to the Heath Barn: Do you think there's a realistic chance Goldy retires?
DG: I don't know at the moment. I do not have that sense from talking with him, but I don't mind saying I don't know.
time: It's been re[prted that some of the issues/problems facing the Cards young hitters in the minors is that the Cards do not have enough coaches in the minors to really help them,,,why don't the Cards hire/get more coaches in the minors then?
DG: That reporting has been in the Post-Dispatch, and it's not just on the hitting side. It is also on the pitching side and on the field coordinator side and all of that. They have not restored the staff sizes to what they were pre-pandemic at every level, and they have not expanded the staff like other rivals have. So, they're twice behind in that regard. They're behind themselves (by not filling positions eliminated during the pandemic) and they're behind the industry (by having positions for the total minor-league system that some teams have for each minor-league affiliate). You ask why they don't hire/get more coaches in the minors then? Look, it's not like they don't know this. It's not like they were chugging along and it took us to point out they're staffing has fallen behind. If you've kept up with MLB club, you know last year they were light on staffing -- and it was talked about and it was written about -- and they added staffing over the winter to Marmol's group. They know the issue. They have a budget. This is spending. And the price of coaches has only gone up in recent years as teams are more competitive with salaries and also have more money they want to spend on such things because (brace yourself) they either have an embarrassment of revenue (Dodgers!) or they see more bang for the buck in infrastructure than in free agents. Why don't they add indeed? If it were that simple, then it's even worse they haven't done it.
Welcome to the Heath Barn: If they miss the playoffs and finish say 82-80, or 83-79, do you think Oli's back?
DG: Will depend entirely on what happens above him before that decision is made.
(blank): When, not if, MLB brings on the robot home plate Ump, what happens to the actual human Ump?
DG: Nothing. He's not going to be replaced with a robot. MLB is going to use a challenge system. So the human ump will call balls and strikes just like normal, and if the catcher/pitcher or hitter think the human got it wrong, they'll challenge it and the automated system will appear on the scoreboard and tell us if the human ump got the call right or if it will be reversed. Umps will still ump just as they ump at first base and the challenge will send it to a review to confirm or overturn the call.
Florida OBI-Wan: I had this discussion with my buddies on a golf trip over the weekend to LOTO, I believe that once Lynn and Matz are healthy, they are going to try and put both in the rotation. If so, will they go with a 6 man rotation to finish the season or will they move one of the current starters into the bullpen. I think Matz would be better suited in the bullpen but for the money they spent on him I think they will squeeze him into the rotation. My buddies think there is no way Matz or Lynn go back into the rotation. I think they will wait till they can expand the roster first of September to bring them both onto the team. What’s your thought and what have you heard they may do?
DG: Their plan is to see how the week plays out and see if it makes the decision for them. Lance Lynn may not be on the brink of returning. Steven Matz is. On Tuesday, Lynn's timetable will be clearer after he completes the Live BP today and then sees how he recovers. Matz is going through a start Tuesday and his next appearance after that is going to be in the majors. Role TBD. And that's partially because sometimes the decisions are made for them. Matz has done well in relief, and the bullpen may need a boost here in the coming seven days. There are also some upcoming opponents that the Cardinals would like to start a lefty against. Matz could be that lefty. Something of a modified six-man rotation does seem likely, and it is at least being discussed. But what exactly they will do will be to respond in the moment those pitchers are ready, because even if they plan it out, an injury or a performance will make the call for them.
Jojo Disco: Do you see any scenario where Mo is in charge of hiring the next manager if Oli is fired and Mo is not? I ask because of both his record and time remaining on his contract as POBO.
DG: Not unilaterally. I wrote that at the time of Marmol's hiring. You can check the receipts.
From October 2021: "Two out, pressure’s on: After firing his second homegrown, hand-picked manager, Mozeliak’s next choice a defining one for Cardinals"
12:12 PM: Wilson C. done for the year?
DG: As reported over the weekend in the Post-Dispatch and again today, they'll know more in a few hours after he has another series of exams and scans.
TomBruno23: Season ends today (I know it does not, and I think I am happy about that) how do you view Sonny Gray's 2024 campaign?
DG: Inconsistent and thus a disappointment for him and the Cardinals. As I asked Marmol over the weekend -- there have been Sonny Games and certainly Sonny Moments and definite flashes of Sonny Dominance within games, but the Sonny Stretches that he and the Cardinals expect have not been there.
Jojo Disco: Carp batting 3rd yesterday was… a choice. Any insight asked for or offered given he had zero history against the pitcher?
DG: It was about setting the lineup for a pinch-hitter in that spot in case they went to a lefty so that the Cardinals had the right-handed bat to create a more difficult matchup from there for the Twins. Get Carpenter the early at-bats against a right-hander, then be in position to spring a better matchup later as the Twins turn to bullpen. Marmol has done this several times in the past month and he's been willing to explain it.
JP in TN: Is there any parallel to where a Molina Pujols Co Manager system could work? Both want to try managing, they have a great relationship and clearly this team needs leaders.
DG: Arizona once tried to have three or four different GMs each overseeing a different part of the organization. Gary LaRocque was offered a GM role that would have been over the minors and equal to the GM role over the majors, or some structure like that. Guess what? It didn't happen. They didn't even try ultimately. Maybe some team out there would try that structure. Not sure how it would work, and I don't see a parallel that was attempted. College football maybe?
JP in TN: I am to the point of believing the organization needs new voices. I think Mo served organization well but it has clearly not been a good last 4 years for his decisions. If Chain Bloom is the next POBO, is it pretty fair to believe that Marmol will be replaced?
DG: No.
Walt: One aspect that I only recently became aware of was how the percentage of Arenado's singles has skyrocketed over the last three seasons. I've never even considered looking for a performance indicator such as that.
DG: He plays home games at Busch Stadium, and that is an entirely different place to hit than Coors Field.
Bryan C: After this season Bill doesn't need to pick up the option on Lynn and Gibson. He should let Goldschmidt, Carpenter and Armstrong leave as free agents. He should remove Leahy, Raycraft and Fermin from the 40 man roster. He should trade Nootbaar before he becomes the next Carlson. He should try to trade Mikolas and Matz. If no one takes these 2 pitchers and they do not have a good spring training then release them. This is how the off season needs to start player wise. Your thoughts please
DG: If you trade Nootbaar you make him the next Carlson. I don't see how all of these moves by themselves improve the Cardinals. You'll have an empty roster to fill, but is there a plan and budget to do so? And with whom? An empty team is not a better team.
A.J.: Hey Derrick, thank you for the chat! Nolan Arenado has .300 in August with an .845OPS. Do you think he is just starting to feel healthy, or do you think it has to do with him swinging the bat harder ( read that in an article )? If he could sustain that into next year, I think the team could succeed with Arenado running .275-.280avg, with 18-22 HR's, 85 RBI's, and an .825OPS.
DG: I think he's feeling strong and healthy after the injuries that limited him or slowed him in the first half. I know he's feeling more comfortable with his swing after that frustrating start he had that he spoke candidly about with his swing. And, from those around him and perhaps you can see it yourself, he's on a full-out push to make this season right and try to hoist the Cardinals into a run for the postseason and maybe reclaim that spot as a Gold Glove third baseman in the process. He has said as much if you listen, whether it's the comments to local writers or what he's said on game broadcasts when he insists he has great baseball yet to play and he appears driven to show that, now.
Kim Miller: Derrick, greetings on this Monday. My question is regarding Jordan Walker. The Cardinals want him to elevate the ball more and hopefully increasing his power production as the process goes. My thought is it may not happen. Walker has hit a certain way his whole life and a change right now may not work. I'll point to an ex-Cardinal here, Jason Heyward. Heyward has roughly the same body type as Walker, but he could never develope into the power threat people envisioned. Could this be happening to Walker? I know Jordan has age on his side, but the hitting styles of Heyward and Walker are pretty similar.
DG: It's a fair question and I appreciate the comparison. Walker is larger than Heyward, though Heyward, as you know, also had a sizeable frame, it's just more common in baseball than Walker's. That said, you've hit exactly on the Cardinals thoughts here. Walker needs to make a swing change to achieve what will make him a power-packed standout in the majors and make the most of his size. Heyward had superb defensively play and different set of skills there and at the plate, so the change for him was slightly more dramatic to become the power guy. Still, he's definitely an example for the Cardinals to consider here. Another is Aaron Judge. We've discussed this a lot. And let's do so again -- carefully, so as not to say that Walker is the next Judge. Let's get that right out there. Judge is rocking at elite levels. But Judge is also helpful as a model. Compare Walker at his age (22) to Judge at the same age. Walker has 489 at-bats in the majors. At the same age, Judge had ZERO. At 22, he had just been drafted, coming out of college with his size and swinging a metal bat at Fresno State where he -- checks notes -- hit a career-high 12 home runs in 56 games and struck out 53 times. At 22, Judge was at Class A, and he hit -- checks notes -- 17 home runs in 131 games. After the age of 22, shortly after his debut and that .179 average in the majors, Judge sought a swing change, and that brought him to Ƶ.
From my colleague Ben Frederickson's column: "Judge had averaged .179 and slugged .345 in 27 games as a rookie. He was desperate, and attentive. Especially after Schenck proved to the student that the aged teacher could beat Judge from a stance to hitting a ball off a tee. Since then, thanks in part to countless sessions with Schenck, the two-time All-Star has averaged .284 and slugged .595 while totaling 78 home runs, second only to his Yankees teammate Giancarlo Stanton during that span."
In 2017, Judge hit 52 home runs.
He was 25 years old.
Walker turns 25 on May 22, 2027.
Again, I'm trying to careful point out here the timeline of a swing change and the benefit, not claiming that Judge is Walker's comp as a hitter, but to give you a feel for his age, the importance of a change, and what's already been asked of him so early in his pro career.
TomBruno23: He is also a bit older, in baseball years, than he was as a Rockie.
DG: Yes, as detailed above, age is a factor. On both ends of the timeline. For us all.
Duffy in CT: Does Mo set the Cardinal lineup or tell Oli who to play?
DG: Nope. Front office runs the roster. Manager runs the lineup. Analytics informs both decisions before those are made.
Josh: Love the Goldy/Votto comparison. I always thought Votto was good, but I never liked how he'd take a 3-1 pitch. I understand the logic behind it, but he was always supposed to be The Man for Cincy. I've always thought your big hitters were supposed to do damage in those situations, not pass it to the next guy.
DG: Maybe he didn't get a pitch to do damage on because the other team was willing to give him the walk -- because one base for him is better than damage.
Jordan: Is there a set plan for the front office transition next year, or does ownership feel they need to pressure Mo to expedite that departure earlier?
DG: Mozeliak says he intends to have one coming out of this season and going into the winter. He's brought that up several times. There doesn't seem to be any pressure from ownership to determine that in August, and it's not the time when he said it would be in place. He definitely wants it to be clear as they start making decisions for 2025.
Amir: Hey Derrick, was delighted to see your minor contribution to Baseball America’s June/July issue about the draft. You had mentioned that workload concerns were the reason Quinn Matthews did not immediately pitch following the 2023 Draft, which is common for many college pitchers. I was unaware, however, that a strengthening program for the remainder of 2023 was why Quinn Matthews saw a velocity bump that has helped him catapult through 3 levels and change his outlook. I was initially underwhelmed at how most of the 2024 draft went for the cardinals because of the high floor/low ceiling type college arms the team seemed to go after. Is the blueprint for Matthews something that the team thinks can be replicated with many of these college arms? I know I’m making it sound simple, but I’m hoping that the Cardinals have identified some kind of competitive edge here that will allow them to develop impact arms moving forward.
DG: Thanks for the question. As someone who grew up reading Baseball America, it's been a welcome part of this job to be able to write for BA for so long now. They're patient with me, and I enjoy getting to work with them. The model with Mathews is not new to Mathews. It's been used for years, whether it was with college players or high school players. Some of the Cardinals leading prospects (Hence is an example, Flaherty) had a similar program, where there was work away from games, limited innings in games, and all of that with the idea of fostering health, increased velocity/strength, and addressing durability. Mathews is slightly different because of the workload he had in college, for sure. But the basic backbone of the development process for him is similar to others the Cardinals have used and will continue to use (as other teams do) just with an expanded use of tech, expanded staff possibly, and some other yet-to-be-detailed suggestions that Chaim Bloom and others will bring to the system. Mathews is an example of this development plan, not the inspiration or even the first.
TomBruno23: This one time Mozeliak traded Chris Duncan because...
DG: ... he was clearing a spot in the outfield and on the roster for Matt Holliday. And, no, Tony La Russa was not going to start the late, great Chris Duncan over Matt Holliday.
CH: The Post Dispatch had some good reporting about how Ryan Ludwick, as the roving hitting instructor, helped Victor Scott II adjust his swing and the improvements have been noticeable. Has Ludwick been able to spend any time with Jordan Walker? Walker's open stance and ensuing swing are really struggling to make the next step needed to succeed facing big league pitching.
DG: He has, yes. Ludwick has spent time with all of the hitters at Class AAA Memphis. He has one of the roles that the Cardinals did bring back after the pandemic. Ludwick and a handful of other former players had their positions downsized during the pandemic and year that followed. While the Cardinal Core program that Ludwick contributed to did not return, Ludwick did in his current role as roving hitting instructor. The Cardinals also approached him about a full-time role with the major-league club, but he and them decided the time commitment was a lot more than he wanted with young children.
Sue: Hi Derrick. When Crawford was let go, you emphasized that her was given his outright release, not DFA'd. Then the Dodgers DFA'd Heyward. What is the difference to the team for choosing one over the other? Did the Dodgers gain anything from the transaction that the Cardinals didn't? Thanks so much for taking my question!
DG:Thank you so much for this question. DFA clears a spot immediately on the roster but allows for the possibility that the player will stay in the organization or even be traded. Heyward could be DFA'd by the Dodgers, moved off the 40-man roster, but, in his case, accept an assignment (the A in DFA) to the minors. A release is just that -- off the roster, out of the organization. That is why I find it interesting when fans on social media what the punitive DFA, like it's some ejection seat. How many of those fans would want the player to stay in the organization, which the DFA can allow for in some cases?
JohnB.: Are there any specific examples you can point to of current players on the Cardinals roster who have improved based on information given to them by the Cardinals' analytics personnel?
DG: Yes.
Alec Burleson
Masyn Winn
Ryan Helsley
How much time do you have, because I'm honestly running out of time here before I have to bolt. The list gets pretty long, and I'm not sure if you want to go with current or all-time Cardinals. A handful of pitchers on the current team have crafted pitches with the help of the analytics.
Heck, check out Andre Pallante.
He deserves a lot of credit for what he's done to reinvent himself and find a solution for right-handed batters. Where do you think he got that road map to do so? Where do you think he got various options to consider and details on where he needed to improve?
Hint: Analytics.
Jordan: Do the Cardinals look outside the orhfor a key offensive player for next season?
DG: Yes.
Alright, I had about until 1 p.m. here to get through the questions. A lot of good ones are still in the inbox. Let's see if I can take a pause here briefly. Get to where I need to get, scramble a bit, and then get to some of these questions too. I will endeavor to do so, but to pull this off I need to take a pause.
I will plunge back into the inbox later this afternoon
Er, this morning. Let's wrap the chat over come coffee.
Ken: Where are you Derrick!
DG: Trying to make the way back to STL.
saw: Do you expect the team to pursue Roki Sasaki this winter? Going into last off season, the FO talked a lot about the scout in Asia that they had brought on, but as the offseason progressed, their message shifted to big name international players probably do not want to come here.... makes it hard to assess what's like to happen with someone like Sasaki
DG: Sasaki, the next superstar pitcher from Japan who will command a frenzy of attention similar to Yamamoto, is not a guarantee to be posted by his team and come over this winter. And just as it's not a guarantee that he will come over this winter, it's not a guarantee he'll sign with the Dodgers -- it just sure seems that way. Some in the industry believe that's inevitable, especially if he's posted when teams are limited with what they can offer him. There are a few other teams that could make it interesting for sure (Giants, Angels?). The Cardinals have, as you know, several things working against them such as geography. So if the bidding is capped by his age and posting process and all offers are the same, the location on the map cannot be sweetened with a bigger offer. MLB has also changed the relationship teams can have with Japan's pro clubs. A scout can be just as vital now to find the talent that is a fit -- both on the field, and likely when it comes to the offer made.
Simple.10: Would a Trout for Arenado be a possible deal? Both have complicated/expensive contracts?
DG: I don't see how either side -- really any of the four sides, two teams and two players -- show interest in this conversation. Size of contracts. No trade clauses. Direction of franchises, and the injury concerns.
AO: Derrick - looking for some hope. What could you point to that would give us fans some hope that even if the Cards don't make the postseason this year - there is reason to be optimistic about the future.
DG: Masyn Winn has had a breakthrough year. He could win a Gold Glove Award in his rookie season. And his breakout year is still to come.
Bryan C: Do the Cardinals use Analytics? If so they need to change back to the old way baseball players use to be judged. What is your option?
DG: The Cardinals -- and all teams now -- use analytics, and they have used analytics for decades now (they go by different names through the years), and they all should continue to use analytics to make decisions and improve clubs, the Cardinals included. There's an argument to be made that Branch Rickey, architect of great Cardinals teams and the farm system, used analytics, but was limited of course to the computing power of him and a staff, not the massive data sets that can be sorted through these days to make all teams and all players better.
Florida OBI-WAN: What are the odds that MO in his structure for the FO next season , isnt back with the club? Will DeWitt say it’s time to go and let’s go in a different direction or is MO there for sure all of 2025 ?
DG: Seems low at the moment. He has said he'd like to have another voice rise in volume when it comes to decisions, and it's entirely likely and on brand that Bill DeWitt Jr. would allow Mozeliak to make an emeritus exit of his choosing as his contract comes to an end.
KM: I saw your comment on Arenado and that he is feeling better and really pushing to put this team in contention. I would argue his body language says the opposite. He came here as this fiery competitor that plays hard every play. I can point to most recently the ground ball to third that he walked after (chip carey had to bite his tongue so he didnt get in trouble with management) but many plays like that as if he doesn't care or want to me here? Seems he has thrown many at bats away as perception but body language goes a long way. What say you?
DG: I stand by what I said and what I can tell you from talking to him, not reading his body language but going up and asking him or having him bring the topic up. He wanted to talk about that play after seeing the replay. He was positioned well back, and he had just moved further away from the line immediately ahead of that slow-roller going into play. That gave him farther to run. You can look at the overhead cam and see the break he had on the ball -- and it would just look like an aggressive fielder's first step toward a grounder. And then ball bounces in a way that went away from him, and he knew he had no play. He's made thousands of plays like in games and practice and he routinely goes through plays like that when possible, so he's definitely got an instinct for when he can make the play and cannot, and that was a case when he cannot. I don't see the same thing you do at all. I am also hesitant to read "body language" without talking to a player and trying to get to know them through their teammates, as an example. Some of the calmest waters are roiling with competition underneath, and those calm waters (or stoicism) are just necessary for that person, that personality to maintain an even keel through a game rich with failure.
John: If Alonso would sign for around 5/150, is that something the Cardinals would be interested in?
DG: That would be an interesting contract for him, and it would be one the Cardinals would not shy away from. There are some comparisons that put the contract at more than $200 million. That length, one that puts him in his mid-30s, will get a handful of teams interested.
DCG: You noted that DeWitt worries that an almost-winning team is producing low attendance numbers and thus a tanking team would produce lower. My feeling, though, is part of the attendance issue is that the fans have grown frustrated with half-measures that feel like doing just enough to keep the team in the playoff hunt, and thus, hopefully, keep the stadium full, than truly developing an elite, championship level roster. In doing so, they've developed a boring product. I think an honest communication that they were going to go young and likely take a standings hit in the hopes to return to elite status would get more buy-in from fans. As an out-of-market fan, I gave up my baseball package two years ago because I was tired of hope-and-prayer roster construction. I'd be much more likely to renew to watch a roster of young players building to a new future of the franchise.
DG: Entirely fair. Maybe I'm coming at this from a viewpoint you don't share or care to share and that's OK -- the Cardinals are the team I cover; the Cardinals are the team you root for. Those are different. But I don't see how you couldn't classify any team "a hope-and-prayer roster" if you wanted to. Even the scenario you present -- they bend young and tell fans there's going to be some turbulence -- is a hope and prayer approach. They hope the hard times ahead make for a stronger team from the younger players ... eventually. And, let's be honest, that approach hasn't worked for as many teams as it's hindered. The Astros and Orioles pulled off the tank-and-win, but it took years and some small crowds and zero ratings on TV to do it, and the Cardinals don't want those numbers. Plus, that's two teams from Tank Time -- where are the Cubs, where are the Reds, where are the Tigers, the Royals are emerging, but are they staying and on and on. I am skeptical that fans would respond to even that level of transparency with anything more than the same criticism of building a team on hope and less attendance because the odds don't guarantee that tanking works. Spending and developing to contend does.
chico: If we can blame hitting coaches for a few players,how do you explain the young players just mentioned having success?
DG: You tell me. I've been asking that same questions because if we explore the players who haven't had success, what can we learn from the players who have had success. That was a big topic in my recent conversation with former Post-Dispatch columnist Bernie Miklasz on a recent episode of BPIB.
You can listen to that here.
KM: Hi DG With back to back seasons like Goldy has had why would the cards be in talks for an extension. Look i like the guy too but he's simply not helping them win at the clip you need from someone that is supposed to be doing damage in the lineup.
DG: I don't believe anyone has reported that they are in talks on an extension, have they? That has not been the case. What I wrote in the chat a few weeks ago and a few hours ago was that they would discuss with Goldschmidt after the reason what his return looks like. An extension isn't possible at this point because any discussion is likely going to require that he reach free agency first, and then it will be a case of what he's looking for and if that meshes with the Cardinals see, too.
Jock Ewing: Derrick - The Cardinals have a lot of middle-infielder prospects at all levels of the organization. Wynn is locked in, so one spot for a lot of people. How do you see the thinning playing out?
DG: One of the best things about middle infielders is they, like Brendan Donovan or Tommy Edman for example, can usually play a bunch of positions and sometimes their best position is not the middle infield at all, but where the roster and their bat take them thanks to the playing time they receive because they can play a bunch of places. Honestly, that seems like the Cardinals' sweet spot at the moment. Look at the hitters who have developed for them -- it's the middle infielders and utility players who play multiple positions so they can get at-bats that way, or are so good defensively they are always in there through slumps because they contribute in a different way.
Dave: Derrick, I know you aren't running a book club but some months ago I asked you for recommendations for front office type books and you mentioned Winning Fixes Everything, the Cardinals Way, and Lord's of the Realm. (I already read Moneyball). Well you nailed all 3 recommendations! Do you have any others?
DG: 9 Innings by Daniel Okrent is excellent.
Tommy Pham: I know you receive a lot of hate based on your answers, but I appreciate your clarity and I understand that now. Thank you for these chats.
DG: Thank you, Tommy.
Bryan: Everyone talks about club house unity. Maybe the Cardinals should try some old club house fighting like the A's did in the 70's and the Yankees did in the 1980's. They won World Series. Marmol lets try that for a change. Do you think that would help?
DG: No.
I do think, however, a career-prime peak Reggie Jackson would help, if that's possible to add to the Cardinals' lineup.
Sofa Kingdom: Have you had any discussions with the FO on what the Blues are doing and how they are going about their "retool" instead of a full-on rebuild? Their messaging with the fans has been greatly appreciated.
DG: I have not, not personally. I cannot speak for my colleagues, many of whom cover both teams and may have had that exact conversation.
Ryan: That’s crazy talk. That hitter should not have to be pinch hit for. Hence why he’s hitting in the 3 hole. If you’re planning for a pinch hitter in the 8th in your 3 hole at the home plate meeting. I mean. Wow
DG: It is entirely possible -- stay with here, and let's just workshop this -- that a player has a superior OPS against right-handed pitching or a particular style of right-handed pitcher (elevated fastball, as an example), and that in the modern lineup that puts him in the No. 3 spot, let's say, but when the opponent shifts to a lefty or a different style of pitcher that platoon edge shifts to another player who has a better OPS and thus the lineup is better with that matchup. Or, you want to create a trap because of the three-batter minimum. These are the elements of the modern game. Specific platoons. Hyper understanding of maximizing matchups for damage (not batting average, damage), and the strategy of a lineup with a DH against a three-batter minimum. Any comparison to a game before these elements starts falter because they weren't in play a decade ago.
Ken: What of Goldys future? Derrick can you think of a player this age, this good , that has fallen so far … and come back to put together another couple of good season's ? I can’t think of a player . There doesn’t seem to be any injury it’s just Father Time. To bad he’s been a great player .
DG: One comes immediately to mind. Albert Pujols did. He was a few years older.
Craig: I (and I imagine many others) shared this same take preseason. No one expected severe regression from Noot and Gorman, mild regression from Donovan and the absence of offense from Goldy and Arenado. I find this Cardinals' offseason as fascinating as any I have watched over the last 35 years. This team is at a real crossroads with major questions to answer. I'm not sure they have the right people onboard to move this team in the right direction.
DG: They may have passed the crossroads and reached a point of inflection -- or even a tectonic shift between eras.
ud: Was it reasonable for the club to expect their former MVP to improve his production from 2023, or were they simply not in a position to make a move that would improve the club if he and Arenado continued to decline? Most enterprises do a vulnerability assessment, what if this happens, what do we do to ensure it doesn't sink us? Did the Cardinals do that? And if so, was the answer that they simply didn't have the resources to add pieces that would reduce the reliance on those two offensive pillars who were clearly trending down?
DG: Yes, they did that. I don't know if it went by that name or if it came in a three-ring binder and was presented to shareholders. But they did that, and they did it again, and they did it from different angles and different scenarios, and they -- like every MLB team -- built the roster for the highest-paid players to be their leading performers, and while some erosion of production is always baked in, they do not count on having to replace the entire player or having a star on standby, because that's not how stars work or how teams build rosters (even the Dodgers), and they do count on the improvement of young players to fill in the performance on an aggregate level. Burleson has done that. Others did not. And that is how teams arrive at disappointing years. All teams need stars to be stars. If Shohei Ohtani struggled all season, the Dodgers wouldn't be as good and they also wouldn't replace him in the lineup.
Joe in Hannibal MO: This feels a lot like how the Cardinal teams of the late 70's and early 90's. Some talent but no depth. It was a lot like that when DeWitt and his group purchased the Cardinals. They were irrelevant and the fans were indifferent. It took strong managers, Whitey and LaRussa, to rescue those teams. Simplification because on the GM side Whitey and Walt Jocketty, among the players brought in, had a lot to do with that. My question is with today's players, where we've traditionally drafted in the last 10 years, the lack of keeping pace with internal tools for the players and the drastic lack of depth in the coaching ranks of the minor leagues...is this a quick turnaround? Will it take a more veteran manager and GM in sync to get this job done?
DG: It doesn't have to and it may take the opposite -- because to close the gap without leaping into the deep end of spending to cover up some of the development holes is going to require a level of innovation that might come from fresh eyes, fresh ideas, fresh notions. That doesn't have to be a veteran GM or a veteran manager any more than it has to be a veteran pitcher who can provide innings. Innovation, modernization, and, yes, some spending to expedite the contending while those things happen is a way out of this, and it doesn't take someone who has done it before with an older model to pull that off.
Welcome to the Heath Barn: Chances Mo's back next year? Are the Dewitt's anywhere close to selling the team and if not do they realize the changes that need to be made?
DG: All indications are that Mozeliak will finish out his contract and that ownership will welcome him finishing out his contract, and that Mozeliak has -- let me type this again -- said he wants to create a clear plan where other voices grow in influence and volume over the coming offseason and season. No, the DeWitts are not close to selling, and I'm guess we're just going to have to repeat this over and over for the next few months too. Yes, they have access to the same standings you do.
Ryan: At what point is Nootbaar's numbers put under the microscope? Pepper grinder and the WBC was cute and fun, and of course the tickets sales that came with was fire! But when you take a peak under the hood, he's a) in 4 seasons and almost 1300 PA's he's never had an OPS over 800. b) he can't stay on the field like O'Neill, whom the Cards got tired of. For context some Cardinal outfielders who have had an OPS over 800. Ludwick, Grichuk, O'Neill, Shumacher, Rasmus, Duncan, Piscotty, Thomas and Jose Martinez to name a few. Actually, I wish he was on this team, they'd be more fun to watch.
DG: The answer is last season. At least that's the impression I've received both from him and the team. They need him to stay on the field and stay healthy. He's had one run of more than 50 games in his career in the majors. One. When that happened, he produced -- so much so that it helped create the stage for what you are describing ... the pepper grinder ... the spot on the WBC team ... and so on. He just hasn't had that run more than once during his time. And his concern about the injuries quite literally put him under the microscope, if you will, because he personally sought on an exam by a doctor to make sure he wasn't dealing with anything that would lead to repeated injuries.
Phil: Hey DG, kind of an uncomfortable question here, because I really like the fire Willson Contreras has brought to the team and it really felt like he was treated poorly last year so I don't want to pile on. But I looked at the Cards' record this year when he's been on the IL vs on the active roster, and it's an 18-game swing (9 games over when on the IL, 9 under when he's healthy). Is there any sense you get about his impact in the clubhouse, or on overall team energy? Is this just a coincidence, do you think?
DG: Coincidence. Due to injury, he did not get to play in the team's best 40 games at a time when the schedule when they didn't have the current crush of contending teams in their way. Timing. He would contributed to those wins had he been healthy.
JW Help: The Cardinal offense is what it is if we don’t make any changes. There are not many areas to tweak it. One though is to have Baker start more games at first with Goldy coming in as a late game defensive replacement. If the Cards are going to get a spark it is going to have to come from youth not the veterans
DG: It is impossible to look at the 2024 roster and 2024 lineup and not see changes coming to them because of the natural roster churn. It can't be the same team, and without changes it won't be a complete team.