Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and his staff apparently went into the offseason walking a line between being coldly calculating and feverishly concerned in regard to the annual game of musical chairs that unfolds in the free-agent starting pitching market.
Mozeliak, who is entering his 29th year as a member of the Cardinals organization, wasn’t beating his chest after the club signed its third starting pitcher of the offseason — AL Cy Young runner-up and — but he may have privately breathed a small sigh of relief that the Cardinals secured the trio of arms earlier in the offseason than anticipated.
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The Cardinals will enter this coming week’s MLB Winter Meetings having meaningfully addressed their major area of need.
“If you had said to me in the middle of October, ‘Do you think that you’ll be able to get starting pitching done, whether it’s two or three, before Dec. 1?’ I would have said I doubt that,†Mozeliak told the Post-Dispatch this week.
“So I think what happened was when we were out at the GM meetings, there was a lot of positive interactions. We are where we are right now, right. So clearly we felt those were engaging and allowed for the success where we were able to sign guys.â€
The list of teams who entered the offseason needing to replace multiple starting pitchers, either through free agency or internal options, include big-market high-payroll clubs like the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets as well as the recently free-spending San Diego Padres and the Baltimore Orioles, who seem positioned to splurge after years of low payrolls.
With the exception of Aaron Nola () and Gray, the top available free-agent pitching candidates remained unsigned by mid-week.
Considering the competitive starting pitching market, Mozeliak characterized the Cardinals’ ability to add three starters before Dec. 1 as “a bit fortuitous.â€
“We were prepared to go deep into December if we had to,†Mozeliak said.
A month can make a big difference. After all, Cardinals followers went into November with reason for considerable angst.
Mozeliak acknowledged the need for three starters in August, then reiterated that aim in September.
Manager Oliver Marmol echoed that stance in October, on the final day of the regular season when he told reporters, “That’s what’s needed. We’ll see how it all pans out. But you’re asking me what’s needed. That’s what’s needed to compete at a high level and not only win the division but also compete for a World Series. That’s what you need.â€
Certainly, there was a recognition that the task would prove challenging. Yet the quest for three starters seemed cemented.
“I’ve been highly encouraged by the conversations I’ve had with Mo and our front office up until this point,†Marmol said at that time. “Is it difficult to do? Yes. Is everyone on the same page as to what’s needed? Yes.â€
Hedging going into the offseason
However, that previously stated need for three starting pitchers morphed into Mozeliak softening that stance publicly and expressing a desire to sign 2 and ½ starters at the general manager’s meetings.
That hedging from Mozeliak raised eyebrows in some corners of the fan base and set off alarm bells in others. It seemed like the Cardinals might have surveyed the landscape and balked at the thought of acquiring the requisite pitching talent.
As it turned out, the general manager’s meetings in Arizona provided a key landmark in their offseason.
Those few days paved the way for the signings of right-handers and , and it allowed the Cardinals to touch base with Gray’s agent and gain an “understanding†of what Gray was looking for in free agency.
Last season, Cardinals pitchers averaged 5 2/3 innings per start. That ranked 16th in the majors and slightly above the MLB average of 5 1/3 innings.
However, just 30% of their starts (48 of 162) were quality starts. That mark fell below the MLB average (35%).
Of the 14 teams at or above the MLB average for quality starts, nine were in the postseason — including the eventual World Series participants the Texas Rangers (41%) and Arizona Diamondbacks (35%).
In Gibson and Lynn, the Cardinals added two pitchers who each logged at least 183 innings last season. Gibson also logged 17 quality starts last season, while Lynn registered 13.
Gibson signed a one-year deal worth $12 million. Lynn signed a one-year deal that guarantees him $11 million. Both deals include a club option for 2025.
Sticking to the plan
The Cardinals prioritized getting Gibson and Lynn signed first then they turned their attention to free agents that would demand higher prices and longer commitments.
Gray signed a three-year deal that guarantees him $75 million with a club option that could bring his total deal to $100 million over four years.
“Whoever starts on that given day is your best pitcher or your No. 1 starter,†Mozeliak said. “What I didn’t want to have happen is we go out and get a top-end starter like Sonny and all of a sudden there’s no one else left to fill those voids.â€
Once the Cardinals and Gray began discussions, the deal got done in less than a week in large part because of Gray’s desire to play in ºüÀêÊÓƵ.
“I did tell (my agent) that, ‘This is the place. Let’s make it work,’†Gray said. “I don’t know if a lot of free agents say this, but that’s just who I am.â€
Gray is coming off of a 184-inning, 32-start season in 2023. He also logged 17 quality starts on his way to an 8-8 record with a 2.79 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.33-to-1 and strikeout rate of 9.0 per 9 innings. His 2.83 FIP (fielding independent pitching) and 0.4 home runs allowed per 9 innings pitched both led the majors.
The three deals were finalized within one week wrapped around the Thanksgiving holiday. The additions now provide the Cardinals the ability to explore options while many clubs are still jockeying for position and waiting for the pitching market to fully unfold.
Top targets such as former Cardinals pitcher Jordan Montgomery, NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and Japanese phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto remained unsigned headed into Friday.
“I don’t think we’re necessarily looking to add more starting pitching now,†Mozeliak said. “It’s where can we improve the club overall.
“But I learned a long time ago, never say never. We certainly went in knowing that we had to find three starters, and we were able to accomplish that.â€