Even after their rock-ribbed commitment to field a better defensive team absorbed a series of hits during spring training and could have veered entirely due to a collision in the outfield, the Cardinals have mostly fought any temptation to shift from running down outs to chasing runs.
They know, firsthand, that was a losing endeavor.
They believe being surehanded is a better place to start.
“I think the key when we left spring is in order for us to get where we want to get to, we have to play good defense,†manager Oliver Marmol reaffirmed this past week in Detroit. “It’s not easy (when) you’re struggling on offense and you want to put out your best offensive lineup. But you are giving up something when you do that. If you’re committing to defense, then the guys who are in that lineup and you would expect to be offensive you have to be patient until they are. Because, if not, and you chase offense and that doesn’t click and you’re giving up things defensively you’re not in any of these games.â€
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He paused.
The Cardinals’ 24 games decided by three runs or fewer had already mentioned, their 6-10 record in those games when they score three or fewer runs only referenced.
“We’ve seen that,†he said. “And the teams that have been good for us in ºüÀêÊÓƵ have pitched well and they’ve played good defense. … (Offense) improves and the others hold, and you’re in a pretty good position.â€
The Cardinals spent most of the first full month of this season exactly where they ended on the final day of this past season — in last place in the National League Central. They return home Friday having clawed their way into fourth, at 14-17, and avoided an utter lack of offense undermining them during what could have been an overwhelming schedule. Pitching and that devotion to defense gave their tripod two steadier legs as the offense wobbled. It was the other way around — two wobbly legs, one steady — a year ago as they reached the same point in the season at 10-21, their contending days over and 10 games out.
If they’re going to capitalize on the foundation they insist they have to launch back into contention after a challenging schedule and a listless lineup, it’s got to be May.
“I think the vibe is strong, for the young kids out there,†Miles Mikolas said.
The Cardinals return to Busch Stadium for their first home stand of the month with a team average of .220, a .300 on-base percentage, and a .338 slugging percentage. Only one team in the majors is performing worse in all three slash-line categories. As if on cue, that team happens to be their opponent for the weekend. The Chicago White Sox are batting .212/.276/.327 as a team, and they complement that with the second-highest ERA in the game, at 5.15. Former Cardinal Tommy Pham recently joined the Sox, and they won as many games in his first three games (3) as they won in their previous 25 (3).
The Sox’s arrival signals a shift in the Cardinals schedule. Five of their next 12 series are against teams in fourth or fifth place in a division, half of those series are against teams with .500 or losing records as of Thursday. Between now and the All-Star break, the Cardinals have only four road series against winning teams. According to FanGraphs playoff projections, the Cardinals have a 30% chance of reaching October in part because they’re predicted to have the best winning percentage in the NL Central from here. The schedule is accommodating.
Through the first 31 games of the season, the Cardinals played the second-most road games in the majors with 19 and already knocked off two West Coast trips. The Cardinals have played more games in the Pacific Time Zone than their home Central Time Zone, 13 to 12. The first-place Milwaukee Brewers have yet to go west and won’t until late June.
The Cardinals have also played the most day games in the National League.
The miles logged, the time zones crossed, and those night-day turnarounds influenced the Cardinals’ preemptive lineup choices and scheduled days off for players like rookie Masyn Winn as he dealt with back stiffness. The lineups drew criticism from fans and pundits and questions from reporters. But Marmol and his staff stuck to a plan. A strong start was important; a healthy finish could be essential. As injury lists throughout baseball swell with new names, Marmol calls that “the game within the game.â€
“It’s interesting,†Marmol said. “You can go extremely hard and then you’re trying to find off days, whereas if you just pace yourself a little bit then you try to get a guy a day off before his body is screaming for it.â€
Added John Mozeliak, president of baseball operations: “I think when you look at the race — meaning the 162 (games) over 187 (days) — health is definitely a major part of that.â€
The Cardinals felt that pain before Day 1.
In conversations this past week about the first full month of the season, Cardinals officials traced back to what they felt was an early turning point for their season. In Arizona, on the eve of opening day and during an exhibition game against the Cubs, Dylan Carlson separated his shoulder in a collision with Jordan Walker. Carlson won the center field job when the named starter, Tommy Edman, had setbacks following wrist surgery. Carlson, a strong defensive option at center, would join Edman on the IL.
The Cardinals had their first test of this commitment to defense before the season started. There would be others.
They promoted slick-fielding rookie Victor Scott II to start in center, and after he struggled offensively the Cardinals turned to deft fielder Michael Siani.
At the same time, the Cardinals’ offense wheezed. Their overall average is among the lowest for the team to start the season in decades. They have the fewest homers and fewest runs off homers in the majors. With runners in scoring position they’re hitting .202 and slugging a meager .326. For context, Atlanta is batting .316 with runners in scoring position. The Cardinals have made some recent, limited concessions to offense — when chasing the Tigers on the scoreboard this past week, Lars Nootbaar played center to upgrade the offense — but remain defense first, Marmol underscored.
The numbers suggest more than just outs would slip through their fingers otherwise.
At the same point last year, the Cardinals averaged a ½ run more per game, 4.00 to 3.52. They slugged .409 to this year’s .338. They were 3% better than the league average when creating runs vs. 14% worse this season. Their run differential is worse, minus-23 to minus-30. Yet, they are outperforming that through defense and pitching, specifically the bullpen. A minus-5 Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield a year ago at this time, they’re a minus-1 and up overall on defense from 18th to top 12. The Cardinals’ ERA is a half-run better this season, 4.62 to 4.10.
They have four more wins and, not coincidentally, four fewer blown saves.
Last year’s record plunged over the precipice because of poor pitching and ragged defense. This year’s record has yet to topple, so far, due to the good hands and better grip of defense and pitching — which has held on as long as it can for the offense to arrive.
On a rehab assignment with Class AAA Memphis, Carlson could return to center by the end of this home stand. It’s a return to form from others in the lineup that will determine if the offense can carry its weight. History suggests this is the month. Nolan Arenado has slugged .539 in May for his career with a .901 OPS. Paul Goldschmidt has slugged .545 in May with an OPS of .936. The only month he’s been more productive in his career? June. The defense and pitching bought time. The lineup decisions tried to avoid wear.
The Cardinals now balance on the edge of an axiom.
Time for April showers to yield May powers.
“I really like our club: It’s a tough team, and they’re not going to give it, at all,†Marmol said. “We’ve played some really tough games, a lot of close games, and I like the overall personality and demeanor of our club. You look at what we’ve done over 30 days with our offense being where it’s been, and I don’t think that’s going to be a lasting theme.â€