When the Cardinals won Sunday by five runs and Monday by six vs. the Nationals, it marked a rare happening for this year's team.
That was just the second time this year in which consecutive Cardinals wins came by more than three runs.
It may seem like every Cardinals win this season coming in a close, down-to-the-wire thriller, and historically speaking that's because it's true, at least at a far more frequent rate than seen in at least 100-plus years.
Of the Cardinals' 48 wins through Monday, 38, or 79.2% have come by three or fewer runs. At this point in the season, 90 games in, that's the highest percentage for any Cardinals team in the live-ball era (since 1920).
The Redbirds' close-win percentage has been above 70% only twice this millenium.
Case in point, after a 9-4 win vs. the Giants on June 22, the Cardinals' next eight wins all came by three or fewer runs. They won those games by 14 total runs, or an average margin of 1.75 per game.
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When looking at both wins and losses by three or fewer runs, this year's team is still an outlier, but a bit less extraordinary.
Of the 2024 Cardinals' first 90 games, 63, or 70%, have been decided by three or fewer runs.
Only one Cardinals season since 1993 saw a higher percentage of three-run-or-closer games at this point.
One-run games
When drilling down deeper, to one-run contests, the Cardinals have gone 17-12 in those. Last season, ºüÀêÊÓƵ was 9-19 in one-run games at this point.
The Cardinals, at 48-42, are 10 wins better at this point than last season.
So that success in one-run games, built with a solid bullpen and clutch play, accounts for a big chunk of the team's improvement.
This season's .586 win percentage in one-run games at this point is the team's best since 2000 and 20th best in the live-ball era.
What does it mean?
In trying to determine what it portends for the rest of the season, it's tough to find a historical analog to the way this team wins.
Teams with negative run differentials, which the Cardinals have due to their propensity for close wins and losses that sometimes aren't so close, don't make the playoffs often.
Columnist Ben Frederickson dove deeper into that topic, pointing out that the team has been digging out of an early differential hole over the past two months.
For the season's final 72 games, the pessimistic outlook would be that the Cardinals would lose more of the close games as the bullpen's workload catches up with it.
The optimistic outlook is that the team could begin to score enough runs to win with ease more often. As the Cardinals regain healthy hitters like Lars Nootbaar and, soon, Tommy Edman, this may be more likely.
When examining other Cardinals teams with similar track records to this point where the vast majority of wins were close to this point, none seem like much of a comparison to this year's team.
Only three other Cardinals teams in the live-ball era recorded more than 76% of their wins by three or fewer runs in their first 90 games. None of them finished above .500. None of them were even above .500 at this point of the season.
1958
90-game record: 45-45
Close-win percentage: 77.78% (35 close wins)
How did they fare the rest of the way?: These Cardinals went 27-37 after the 90-game mark for a final record of 72-82.
1988
90-game record: 39-51
Close-win percentage: 76.92% (30 close wins)
How did they fare the rest of the way?: They went 37-35 after the 90-game mark for a final record of 76-86.
1994
90-game record: 42-47
Close-win percentage: 76.19% (32 close wins)
How did they finish: They went 11-14 after the 90-game mark for a final record of 53-61 in a strike-shortened year.