Editor's note: Updated after conclusion of Friday MLB games.
The Cardinals’ acquisition this week of pitcher Erick Fedde and outfielder Tommy Pham has been widely praised in ºüÀêÊÓƵ as the team tries to boost its postseason hopes.
But the folks — or computers — setting the prices at DraftKings aren’t in that camp. Far from that. Â
Following their 6-3 loss Friday to the Cubs in Chicago and the rest of the MLB schedule, the odds of the Redbirds reaching the playoffs were significantly worse than they were before the deal was made Monday. The post-Friday price was so strongly slanted toward them not qualifying that bettors would have to risk more than four times the amount of money they would make if wagering that the Cardinals will be bystanders this postseason. The risk was 2½ times the return early in the day the deal was made.
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Here’s how things have unfurled.
As Monday began, odds already were stacked against the Cards — so much so that a bettor would have had to put up $250 to try to turn a $100 profit if wagering on them to be on the outside when postseason play begins in October. Conversely, those backing them to make it into the playoffs would have reaped a $200 profit for a $100 risk.
There was no price then on the Cards postseason future being offered at the other area brick-and-mortar legal sportsbooks — Argosy (casino in Alton) and FanDuel (horse track in Collinsville).
But DraftKings (Casino Queen in East ºüÀêÊÓƵ) has kept the Birds on the board throughout the frenzied deadline-deal week. After the cutoff finally hit late Tuesday afternoon and DraftKings had digested all the teams’ moves, remaining schedules and many other factors, the Cards were an even longer shot to make the playoffs than they had been before making multiple transactions that included the loss of Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson.
The “no†price for them making the field had become stronger, increasing from -250 to -295 (requiring a risk of $295 to try to turn a comparatively measly $100 profit). Meanwhile, the return for “yes†had climbed from +200 to +250.
The Cardinals now are 2-3 since making the Fedde-Pham acquisitions, including a rough debut Friday for Fedde, and DraftKings’ odds on them making the postseason have sunk from the price it had before the deal was made. The miss-the-playoffs price after Friday's MLB play was -425 (bettors would have to risk $425 to try to win $100), whereas the get-in payout was +320.
Through Friday the Redbirds were in second place in the National League Central Division, 6½ games behind Milwaukee. The also were on the outside in the race for one of the three NL wild-card playoff slots, with their 56-54 record leaving them 2½ games below the cutoff line in a crowded field that had six clubs within three games of each other in the battle for the trio of openings.
The Cards’ odds of snagging a postseason berth were worse than all but one of those teams. Pittsburgh, which was half a game behind he Cards, was at -1,100 to miss the playoffs and at +700 to push its way into the field.
In the bigger picture, the Cardinals’ odds really have tumbled over the last 3½ weeks. Entering play on July 9, when they were 48-42 and second in the wild-card standings, DraftKings oddsmakers had them favored to make the playoffs. A bettor then would have had to risk $120 to try to make a $100 profit on them qualifying. A wager on them to not get in would have returned even money — the profit would be the same as the amount risked.
Mizzou favored by nearly 7 TDs
Missouri is making its bid to join the big boys in college football, coming off an 11-2 campaign and ranking eighth nationally in the final Associated Press poll.
The Tigers head into the fast-approaching season steamrolling with much momentum — and more importantly a significant number of returning key players — to fuel hopes for a spot in the playoff field that has been expanded from four to 12 teams. Now the oddsmakers who set the point spreads at one area sportsbook have put Mizzou into a category generally reserved for power programs — installing them as a huge favorite in their season opener against a much less formidable foe.
FanDuel has posted a line on MU’s kickoff contest, listing the Tigers of the mighty Southeastern Conference as a whopping 47½-point favorite over Murray State of the lower-tier Missouri Valley Football Conference for the teams’ meeting in Columbia on Aug. 29, a Thursday night. The over/under (combined number of points scored) is listed at 58½.
The MVFC is a powerful league at its level, the Football Championship Subdivision, formerly Division I-AA. But Murray State is not one of its marquee programs, going 2-9 last year in its inaugural season as a member.
As of early Friday afternoon, DraftKings and Argosy had not posted a line on the contest.
It could not immediately be determined if this is the most points by which MU ever has been favored. But we do know that the biggest spread on a Mizzou game last year came in the opener, when the Tigers were a 27-point choice over South Dakota. They won 35-10, failing to cover the spread.
According to the website, which provides sports-betting information, college football teams favored by 47½ points have won all 16 games dating to 2003, but are 7-9 vs. the spread. In fact, it shows that schools favored by 47½ or more points in that span are 133-0 on the field — but just 52-79-2 vs. “the man.â€
Missouri and Murray State have met twice in football, with MU winning 58-14 in 2013 and 47-7 in 2006.
Handicapper Cokin dies
Las Vegas sports handicapper Dave Cokin, best known nationally for his days as a panelist on the “Proline†football-picks TV show that ran on USA Network from 1978-2014, died Tuesday. He had been in home hospice and on June 2 had that he had terminal cancer and was retiring.
Still, he continued to tweet his opinions on betting until the day before he died.
Cokin had a trademark look, a tight-cropped beard at the bottom of his face and a flat hat on top of his head that led to him to call the top-end selections he sold his “Under the Hat†picks.
He maintained his sense of humor through his battle with cancer.
“The original prognosis was weeks, possibly months,†he wrote when disclosing his terminal diagnosis. “I’m already one year in and feel good. I look like (expletive) but will accept the opinion of many that I looked like (expletive) anyway.â€
Cokin, 71, was from Rhode Island and lived in Las Vegas for more than 3½ decades. In addition to “Proline,†he had a co-hosting role for “The Pete Rose Show†that aired nationally on Sports Fan Radio Network and was a stalwart on Las Vegas sports radio.
He continued:
“Unfortunately after mostly spinning its wheels and accomplishing surprisingly little, the cancer has now taken dead aim (grim but accurate choice of words) at my carotid artery. One doesn’t have to be a med whiz to know what that means. Basically you should not count on getting a Christmas present from me. I’ve got days or weeks, perhaps a couple months left and I’ll be going, going, gone.â€
Steve Cofield told the Las Vegas Review-Journal that his former radio co-host was “a Vegas legend. He lived the life of a Las Vegas gambler that I think a lot of people wanted to. Everyone knew Dave, and everyone knew his voice.â€