Editor's note: This story originally appeared Friday. It has been updated to reflect developments over the weekend.
The Cardinals fired manager Mike Shildt after the 2021 season, in which they had a 17-game winning streak in September to make the playoffs in a season in which they won 90 games. They were victorious 91 times in the other full season in which he led them, 2019.
He also had a combined record of 71-56 in the two partial seasons he was at the helm — 2018, after he took over in midstream for Mike Matheny, and 2020, when the schedule was truncated because of the coronavirus pandemic.
So his bottom line was 252 wins and 199 losses, with three postseason appearances albeit advancing to the next round only once. Then shortly after the club’s 2021 run ended, “philosophical differences†with the front office led to his shocking ouster.
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His replacement, Oliver Marmol, got off to a soaring start by winning 93 games in 2022 but the Cardinals were swept in their only playoff series. They followed that last year with a generationally bad season, finishing last in the National League Central Division, and after an earlier surge this season they have fallen fast. The Birds lost two of three games to the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend and now have dropped 11 of their last 16 contests to become a massive underdog to make the playoffs.
Meanwhile, Shildt resurfaced this year as manager in San Diego. The Padres, despite dealing superstar Juan Soto in the offseason to the New York Yankees and now being without fellow standout player Fernando Tatis Jr. for nearly two months and counting because of a thigh ailment, are soaring.
Shildt’s Padres, despite a blip in Denver over the weekend, have won 20 of their last 25 games and along with the also red-hot Arizona Diamondbacks are giving the heavily favored Dodgers a run for supremacy in the National League West. The Padres, who are set to be in ºüÀêÊÓƵ Aug. 26-29, finished the weekend leading in the battle for the NL’s three wild-card playoff spots, 5½ games ahead of the first team below the cut line.
Shildt’s former team, meanwhile, has staggered to 11 games behind NL Central leader Milwaukee and five games out of a wild-card spot — with two teams ahead and two others right on the Cardinals' tail in the skirmish to climb above the cutoff line.
The betting odds certainly correlate to the on-field performances of Shildt’s current and previous clubs. At the three area walk-in sportsbooks as of early Monday morning, San Diego’s odds to win the NL pennant ranged from 7-1 to 8½-1. The Cardinals? The were as high as 120-1, at DraftKings.
DraftKings was the only area brick-and-mortar shop to have posted prices on the Cardinals’ playoff chances across the last few days before the trade deadline arrived late last month, and the change in their odds is graphically telling.
On the morning of July 30, several hours before it was announced the Cards had acquired outfielder Tommy Pham and starting pitcher Erick Fedde and traded infielder-outfielder Tommy Edman, they already were underdogs to make the playoffs. A bettor would have had risk $250 to try to turn a $100 profit if wagering on them to miss the postseason. Conversely, those backing them to make it into the field would have reaped a $200 profit for a $100 risk.
The Redbirds went 2-3 in their first five games after that dealing and the odds followed suit, with their “no†price for the playoffs strengthening to -425 (bettors would have to risk $425 to try to win $100), whereas the get-in payout was +320.
Then the Cincy shellacking last week really had their playoff prices moving. After the Cards’ loss to the Reds on Monday, “no†for them making the playoffs was -700, “yes†was at +500. Another defeat Tuesday sent “no†to -1,100, “yes†to +700.
The Reds completed the series sweep Wednesday, outscoring them 19-4 in the three games, and after a day off Thursday the Cards entered their weekend series at home against the Dodgers officially in longshot territory to be playing in October. A risk of $1,800 was needed at DraftKings to try to win just $100 if betting that they’ll miss the tournament. Conversely, at $100 bet that they will get in would reap a $1,000 profit.
By early Monday morning, after losing two out of three over the weekend, the hammer really had hit hard. DraftKings was requiring bettors to put up $2,500 to try for a meager $100 return if betting the Cards will not be in the playoffs. On the other end, a $100 bet on them to get in would be worth a $1,200 profit.
Meanwhile, FanDuel (horse track in Collinsville) had odds posted on who will win the NL manager of the year award.
Milwaukee’s Pat Murphy was the heavy favorite, at -410. Shildt was next, at a little over 3½-1. Marmol was at 33-1.
DraftKings: Never mind about winning-bet fees
After further — and fast — review, DraftKings has backed off a recently announced plan that it intended to add a 3.2% surcharge to winning bets placed in states in which the company is taxed at more than 20%.
That would have been implemented in January and included Illinois, which recently raising its tax on sportsbooks’ adjusted gross revenue from 15% to a progressive rate ranging from 20%-40% based on the each shop’s adjusted gross revenue.
But after rival bookmaker FanDuel announced it was not going to also implement fees on winning wagers, and an outcry from some DraftKings customers, DK reversed course.
“We always listen to our customers and after hearing their feedback we have decided not to move forward with the gaming tax surcharge,†the company said in a statement issued Tuesday.
The higher tax will eat into the bottom line for sportsbooks, which figure to reduce perks to customers such as free bets or have less-favorable odds. That was addressed by Peter Jackson, CEO of FanDuel parent Flutter Entertainment, in an with financial analysts.
“We believe that moderating our levels of generosity or reducing local marketing efforts is a more effective response to higher tax rates,†he said. “We have no plans to institute a surcharge for winners.â€
Missouri betting update
DraftKings is making an additional major financial commitment in trying to have sports betting legalized in Missouri. The company, as well as FanDuel, already had invested significantly in the effort to get a proposal to approve such wagering on the state’s November ballot.
That endeavor was fruitful, as secretary of state Jay Ashcroft announced Tuesday the campaign to put the proposal before voters had secured enough valid signatures to be certified.
Post-Dispatch colleague Kurt Erickson reports that DraftKings since has made a $3.5 million contribution to the campaign to push for legalization. The Missouri tax rate on the bookies would be 10%, in the lower tier of the states that have legalized sports wagering.