What a difference a year makes for the Cardinals as they return from shedding players to a more familiar perch of shopping at Major League Baseball’s annual trade deadline.
But is the marketplace all that different?
Their vantage point has changed, maybe not the prices.
As they yielded to their record in 2023 — their first losing season since 2007 — the Cardinals auctioned off their pitchers, including eventual World Series champions Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton as well as Jack Flaherty and Jordan Hicks. The Cardinals restocked their minor-league system with players they got in return for those four pitchers, all of them pending free agents. Now that the Cardinals are searching for pitching, now that they’re the buyer and not seller, what can they learn about the prices they’ll pay this trade deadline from the prices they charged as year ago?
Let’s look at the three trades.
Trade 1
LHP Jordan Montgomery, RHP Chris Stratton to Texas for RHP Tekoah Roby, LHP John King, and INF Thomas Saggese.
At the time of the trade, Montgomery was 6-9 with a 3.42 ERA in 21 games (all starts), with an 8.0 K/9 and a plus-2.1 WAR. Stratton was 1-1 with a 4.19 ERA in 42 games (all in relief), with a 9.9 K/9 and a plus-0.1 WAR. They were both rentals, as they would be free agents at the end of the season and ineligible for a qualifying offer and compensatory draft pick.
In return the Cardinals got a member of their current major-league bullpen in King and two prospects who rank in their top five, according to Baseball America. Roby is among their top pitching prospects (No. 3) and Saggese, the Texas League MVP a year ago, ranks No. 4.
The Cardinals traded a few months of control for 16 years (six each for the prospects and four years of control before free agency for King).
Trade 2
RHP Jordan Hicks to Toronto for RHP Adam Kloffenstein and RHP Sem Robberse.
At the time of the trade, Hicks was 1-6 with a 3.67 ERA in 40 games (all in relief) with a 12.7 K/9 and a plus-0.3 WAR. He, like the above pitchers, was a rental and pending free agent.
In return the Cardinals got two prospects who are now in Class AAA and rank among their Top 30 prospects, per Baseball America. Robberse, who had a strong start to this season, is No. 12 in the rankings, and strapping Kloffenstein is No. 16.
The Cardinals swapped a few months of control for 12 years.
Trade 3
RHP Jack Flaherty to Baltimore for 2B Cesar Prieto, LHP Drew Rom, and RHP Zach Showalter.
At the time of the trade, Flaherty was 7-6 with 4.43 ERA in 20 games (all starts) with an 8.7 K/9 for a plus-1.4 WAR. Also, about to be a free agent.
In return the Cardinals got a contact-oriented infielder who had a strong spring training and a lefty who, due to these trades, would vault into the majors and make a few starts for the Cardinals in 2023. Rom has missed this season due to injury and surgery. Prieto (No. 19) and Showalter (No. 15) both rank in Baseball America’s Top 30 for the Cardinals. The players did not rate as high for the Orioles.
The Cardinals traded a few months for 18 years of control.
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The Cardinals are exploring deals that they feel would upgrade their rotation or augment their bullpen. A handful of the pitchers they’ve either expressed interest in according to sources or been tied to by other media outlets are under control for 2025 as well. That means the Cardinals could make a move at this deadline that also gives them an answer for next season, too.
In a few cases, when salary isn't being shed, that only increases the price they'll have to pay.
Pressed again into a spot start, lefty allows all five runs as offense strings along zeroes in 5-0 loss that cost the Cardinals a compelling series at PNC Park.
Consider some of the starters in the trade winds, listed with the same stats as the former Cardinals above for quick comparison:
RHP Erick Fedde, White Sox: 7-3, 2.98 ERA, 20 games (all starts), 8.0 K/9, plus-4.7 WAR (signed for $7.5 million in 2025). The Cardinals have interest in the right-hander who has had a rebound season since returning from Asia. Given his production this season, his salary for next season is ludicrously market-friendly, so it’s natural the White Sox would seek a robust package in return. The Cardinals got two top-five prospects for them in the Montgomery deal. Sox shouldn’t expect less. From the Cardinals, those similarly ranked players would be Gordon Graceffo (No. 7), Quinn Mathews (No. 2), or any of the additions above, per Baseball America’s rankings. Plus, he’d be eligible for a comp draft pick, so any acquiring team should consider that in the deal and expect to pay the equivalent.
LHP Yusei Kikuchi, Blue Jays: 4-9, 4.54, 21 games (all starts), 10.1 K/9, plus-0.3 WAR (free agent). A genuine true rental, and a compelling addition for a rotation that does not have a lefty in it due to Steven Matz’s injury. The Cardinals have the second-lowest OPS in the majors against lefties (.623), but the division overall does not do well against lefties. Milwaukee ranks the highest at 15th in the majors vs. lefties (.718 OPS), Pittsburgh 18th (.707 OPS), Cincinnati 21st (.696), and the Cubs 23rd (.680). Kikuchi is owed the prorated remainder of his $10-million salary for the season. Given that it’s even the same teams, not hard to see how they would line up for a deal that’s something slightly less than what the Cardinals got in return for Hicks.
LHP Tyler Anderson, Angels: 8-8, 2.91 ERA, 20 games (all starts), 6.5 K/9, plus-4.5 WAR (signed for $13 million in 2025). An appealing blend of the above two pitchers. A lefty to add to the rotation in a division that is vulnerable to lefties and a superb salary through 2025 with the benefit of a comp draft pick if offered a qualifying offer. Oh, and Anderson is an All-Star. So, the Angels could command a high return, as they entertain teams interested in him, and the return could be at its greatest now. Certainly, the number of teams interested would increase the bidding. That has the Angels’ attention. Look at what the Cardinals got for Montgomery, toss in the comp pick, and go from there.
RHP Zack Eflin, Rays: 5-7, 4.09 ERA, 19 games (all starts), 7.1 K/9, plus-0.7 WAR (signed $18 million in 2025). Multiple media outlets have connected Eflin to the Cardinals this past week. The Post-Dispatch has confirmed only past interest in the right-hander. He has the year of control, but in contrast to Fedde, taking on his salary to relieve the Rays would slightly lessen the prospect cost of acquiring him. The Rays have done quite well in trades with the Cardinals over the past few years, most notably in the deal that landed Randy Arozarena, who just sparked this market by being traded to Seattle.
UPDATE: Eflin has been traded to the Orioles for a package that reportedly includes two of Baltimore's top-20 prospects, UT Mac Horvath (No. 13) and RHP Jackson Baumeister (No. 18), and a High-A outfielder, Matthew Etzel. We'll see where they rank for Rays, but likely the same amount of control and less highly ranked prospects (for the Rays, but higher ranked for O's) than they gave up for Flaherty, which is related to the salary they're taking on.
RHP Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers: 7-4, 3.31 ERA, 18 games (all starts), 8.8 K/9, plus-2.3 WAR ($20 million player vesting option for 2025). A report in The Athletic on Friday insisted the Rangers “are going for it,” presumably taking Eovaldi off the market. Eovaldi’s postseason credentials would appeal to any team trying to shift its look for October. Plus, his salary cost is real for a team that has uncertain broadcast revenues, you’ll recall, was not exactly spending a bunch to repeat as World Series champs (see: Jordan Montgomery, Arizona LHP). Eovaldi’s player option vests if he throws a total of 300 innings from 2023-2024. He’s at 250 as you read this sentence. He does have a limited no-trade clause that will shape his market and adjust what the Rangers could get in return. Playoff pedigree, potential free agent, and if Rangers do listen to offers they could get back the equivalent of what they sent to the Cardinals.
Outfielder hasn't had a consistent run of 50 or more games in two years, but his metrics and eye for the strike zone sure seem similar to a Cardinals All-Star.