The Cardinals find themselves in an unfamiliar spot — one they have not experienced in more than a quarter century.
For the first time since 1998, when they selected outfielder J.D. Drew with the fifth pick, the Cardinals will make a top 10 selection in the MLB draft.
A 71-91 finish in 2023, the fifth-worst mark in the the majors and the lack of lottery luck means the Cardinals own the seventh pick in this year’s draft, which is set from July 14-16 in Arlington, Texas.
The selection will represent just the 12th time in team history the Cardinals have picked in the top 10. It also will signify the highest draft pick assistant general manager Randy Flores has made since he started overseeing the team’s amateur draft as director of scouting in 2015.
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Flores, brought in ahead of the 2016 season, has assisted in making 10 first-round selections, three of which were compensatory picks, for the Cardinals.
Four of those selections — Nolan Gorman (2018), Jordan Walker (2020), Dylan Carlson (2016) and Delvin Perez (2016) — were high school prospects. The remaining picks were players from four-year universities, but none of them currently have a place on the Cardinals major-league active roster.
There is an even split between pitchers and position players drafted across that span, but the Cardinals have selected three pitchers in the past five seasons — Cooper Hjerpe (2022), Michael McGreevy (2021) and Zack Thompson (2019). All are in the minor leagues.
Even with the talent that exists in the Cardinals’ minor league system, MLB Pipeline named the farm system the before the season began. Aiming to replenish their system, the Cardinals will turn to the seventh pick in hopes of landing an impact player for the future.
History of 7th pick
A slugger inducted in 2014 to the National Baseball Hall of Fame and one of the most dominant left-handers this century headlines the top talent selected with the draft’s seventh pick.
Former White Sox star first baseman and designated hitter Frank Thomas (1989) and current Dodgers legend Clayton Kershaw (2006) were taken No. 7, quickly becoming franchise cornerstones.
Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki (2005), outfielder Nick Markakis (2003), starting pitcher Aaron Nola (2014), first baseman Prince Fielder (2002) and left-hander Max Fried (2012) are among a number of players also drafted in that spot who had major league success this century.
Excluding the three most recent No. 7 picks, only 11 prospects who signed with a team failed to make the major leagues. Only one of those players — Trey Ball of the Red Sox (2013) — has failed to do so in the past 20 years.
In team history, the Cardinals have selected No. 7 twice — in 1966 and 1984.
The first of those selections was infielder Leron Lee, an infielder high school infielder from Sacramento, California. He played three seasons for the Cardinals with a .222 average, seven home runs and 25 RBIs and later played with the Padres, Indians and Dodgers as part of his eight-season big league career in which he hit 31 homers, drove in 152 runs and hit .250.
In 1984, the Cardinals plucked right-handed pitcher Mike Dunne from Bradley University. He never played for the team, though, as he was included with Andy Van Slyke and Mike LaValliere in a trade to the Pirates for catcher Tony Pena on April 1, 1987. Dunne debuted with the Pirates in 1987, compiling a 25-30 record with a 4.08 ERA in his five big-league seasons.
Key trends
Although each draft and teams’ preferences change from year to year, the seventh pick has a couple of interesting patterns that paint a picture of what to potentially expect from the Cardinals.
The No. 7 slot has become synonymous with pitching as of late, with 14 of the past 20 picks being hurlers. Of them, eight were left-handed pitchers and six were college players.
Only one non-pitcher has been selected with the seventh pick across the past six drafts — Pirates shortstop Nick Gonzales in 2020, a draft shortened to five rounds because of the COVID-19 pandemic. A pitcher has been taken in that spot in each of the past three seasons — Rhett Lowder (Reds), Cade Horton (Cubs) and Frank Mozzicato (Royals).
In a draft class this year that includes a handful of potential frontline starters, the Cardinals have an opportunity to land an impactful one. Wake Forest right-hander Chase Burns, Arkansas southpaw Hagen Smith, Saguaro (Arizona) High School lefty Cam Caminiti and East Carolina righty Trey Yesavage are potential options.
If the Cardinals opt to draft a player from a four-year university, it would continue a more recent trend of college selections over prep players at the seventh pick.
A total of 32 high school players have heard their names called for that slot, but only three of those have come in the past decade. In the past 20 drafts, nearly the same number of four-year college prospects (12) were selected as in the first 38 years of the draft (14).
Of the past eight prep players drafted with the seventh pick, each one was selected as a pitcher.
Under Flores, the Cardinals have selected five pitchers in the first round, all of whom came from a four-year university, two out of Southeastern Conference programs.
Financial outlook
The Cardinals will have a draft bonus pool of $10,213,000 with which to sign their picks, which is the 17th-most in MLB. Each team is given a bonus pool dependent on the value of the slot they pick at and how many selections they have in each draft.
In the 12 drafts with bonus pool rules, though, the Cardinals are one of the few teams that have overspent their assigned purse each time. Clubs that spend beyond allotted pay bonuses are assessed a 75% tax based on what percentage they spend beyond their allotted total. Penalties worsen if the overage exceeds 5%.
For their first-round pick in particular, the Cardinals are allotted a bonus pool of $6,823,700. The Reds, who had a first-round bonus pool of $6,275,200 last season, signed Lowder to a signing bonus of $5.7 million, the highest bonus for any seventh pick in history.
A common tactic by teams is to spend less than the assigned value for the top choices, allowing them to reallocate unused bonus to another player in a different round. That allows them to offer a player over-slot payment to woo them from a college commitment, as an example. The Reds did that with their saved spending, and the Cardinals will be able to negotiate their own bonus with whoever they select seventh.
That high in the draft, teams prefer to be confident of the price and that a deal can be reached before making the pick. If unable to sign a player drafted that high, the team will get a similar pick the next year.
In the 2023 MLB draft, high school players edged out college draftees in their average bonuses. However, of the draft picks who were selected among in the top 28 of the first round, 12 signed at or above their slot value, with eight of them being players from four-year universities.