Get your questions ready and join in at 1 p.m. Wednesday for our weekly Blues chat.
Matthew DeFranks: Good afternoon. We are a week-plus removed from the draft, free agency, the Buchnevich extension and the Blues development camp. Things will start to slow down from now until mid-September, but there's a lot to get to right now. Let's hear some questions.
Jack: A couple of years ago when the Blues hired Peter Chiarelli, I thought it was a weird call, especially given his less than great work in Edmonton. What exactly was he going to contribute and was he basically the GM in waiting (which was a really concerning thought)? Fast forward to now with the positive Steen transition plan, and I have to wonder what is Chiarelli’s actual purpose, especially given what appears to be a very dense front office structure with lots of ex-players/coaches in ubiquitous advisory-type roles?
Matthew DeFranks: Doug Armstrong doesn't quite have a traditional setup where he has one lieutenant he leans on more than others. It's more of a braintrust that he'll run ideas by, and that's how the Blues make decisions. That involves Chiarelli, Tim Taylor, Ryan Miller, Al MacInnis, Scott Mellanby and Alexander Steen.
So Chiarelli is part of that group and has people of slightly different backgrounds. Chiarelli has obviously run teams before. Taylor deals with development a lot. Miller runs the cap and handles CBA issues. Mellanby and MacInnis are two more players' voices.
We all know about Steen's background and his future in the organization, obviously.
As for Chiarelli himself, I know he does a decent amount of scouting, and I'll see him on a few road trips a season as management's representative around the team. Clearly, Armstrong values his voice in that group of higher-ups.
Reggie Dunlop: Hi Matt, it seems that all our new forward acquisitions (including Kapanen) have one thing in common. They can't score. Doesn't seem like management is really serious about making the playoffs this year. What say you? Thanks!
Matthew DeFranks: I'll say that management is serious about trying to make the playoffs this season. None of the moves made this summer do anything that move them off the playoff bubble in the Western Conference. They should still be relatively in the hunt, but I think you'd be hard-pressed to find many projections that have them in the top half of the conference.
The moves the Blues made made their bottom six better, as far as bottom-six players go. But in order to get over the hump in the next few years, it's about lengthening the top-nine and developing three scoring lines instead of the 1 1/2(?) that they currently employ.
I will say that both Mathieu Joseph and Alexandre Texier had more points than Kevin Hayes last year. Absorb that however you like.
Scooter: Matthew, we know the Blues appear to be high on some recently drafted prospects, considerably high, when compared to previous top prospects in years' past, i.e Bokk, Kostin, etc. My question is do you have a sense of the view from other organizations' views on Daliborsky, Stenberg, Lindstein, Bolduc, Snuggerud, Loof, etc. I don't feel like we have seen the org potentially building around the future since the "come grow with us" days of Oshie, Berglund, Erik Johnson, etc. Granted that Blues team was dog*hit but still. It seems the Blues really feel they have some studs coming in the next few years. And also, maybe because the club hasn't been able to draft as high in the decade since Army became the top hockey boss
Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, I think you nailed it with that last point. The Blues simply haven't had the quality of picks in the past. They either were 1. good enough to justify trading a first-rounder away or 2. good enough to pick towards the end of the first round. That hasn't been the case recently.
Here's a list of Doug Armstrong's highest draft picks (from the 2011 draft onward since he officially took over as GM after the 2010 draft): Dvorsky, Jiricek, Bolduc, Thomas, Fabbri, Snuggerud, Schmaltz, Bokk, Stenberg, Thompson, Neighbours, Lindstein.
Seven of Armstrong's highest picks in his 14 drafts have come since 2020. Obviously, Dvorsky at 10 and Jiricek at 16 stand out being the two most recent high selections. But it's also about adding those two extra firsts in 2023, and keeping every first since the O'Reilly trade.
As far as outside views of the organization, people see players on the way and the apparent depth of the group. But I'm not sure people see them as a better group than, say, Dallas, which has a few top, top end players (Johnston, Stankoven, Bourque) and little behind that.
Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: Happy hump day Matt. With management's trend toward bigger wingers and d-men why would Army resign 5' 8" Perunovich? I applaud Army's draft choices and recent signings/trades for bigger and stronger players, but we already are saddled with Krug. Inquiring minds want to know.
Matthew DeFranks: Perunovich was an RFA, so the easiest move is to re-sign him to maintain an asset or lose him for nothing. After the Blues made sure to get him his games last season, it didn't seem to make sense that they would not qualify him and let him walk as a UFA.
I think it's no secret that Armstrong has tried to move Krug -- at every presser even now, he mentions that he's tried changing the look of the blue line -- and what happens if he's actually successful at that? Who takes those minutes? Perunovich is the logical answer.
I also think it's clear that there's a lot of wait-and-see with Perunovich and the Blues. He's signed consecutive one-year contracts, so it's really no pain for the Blues to revisit this conversation next summer or to trade him in the next season if things aren't working out.
Evan: what are the odds Dvorsky starts this season. In my opinion, he is significantly better than Dean so it would be kinda dumb to play Dean over Dvorsky.
Matthew DeFranks: Starts the season on the NHL roster? Give me a fence and I'll sit on it. I'll go 50-50. There's a clear delineation among Blues forwards. Thomas, Kyrou, Buchnevich, Neighbours, Schenn and Saad in the top six. Texier, Toropchenko, Faksa, Joseph, Sundqvist and Kapanen are in the bottom six
If Dvorsky is on the roster, I think the Blues want him in a top six role. There's no need for him to play eight minutes a night in the bottom six when he could be playing 22 in the AHL. I mean, the Blues just got him out of that situation in Sweden last season.
So Dvorsky would have to win a spot in the top six, I think, in order to push guys down the pecking order. Another option would be to create a pseudo-kid line with Bolduc and Dvorsky on the third line and deepen the scoring possibilities that way. But that would cause some tougher decisions by the Blues in terms of waiving Kapanen, Walker, Alexandrov, etc.
Joe B: The Blues have a ton of cap space and I believe all three cap retention spots. Do you see them playing the role of Third Party Bank at the trade deadline?
Matthew DeFranks: I hope so. Deals at that point in the season are so risk-free. The cap hits are lessened because of the point in the season. So is the actual cash owed to those players in salary. The Blues will likely have accrued so much cap space in the first four months of the season that they could make any retention deal work in the short term.
Hekawi: Hi Matthew…in light of the moves made in the past week and the presumption that Army is now done making moves…why did we give Pittsburgh what may turn out to be a pretty high 2nd round pick to buy$3.5MM of cap space that we’re apparently not going to use? We still have $8.1MM+ of cap space available. Why not just buy Hayes out or make him sit in the press box all season if they’re not going to use that cap space? It seems like negligence bordering on malfeasance to have given that pick up if we’re not using the cap space.
Matthew DeFranks: This was a question that I asked Doug Armstrong last week. Why go the route of trading away a second instead of a buyout or retaining salary or waivers? It wasn't a tidy and clean answer from Armstrong, but it essentially boiled down to this sentiment:
Hayes didn't work in ºüÀêÊÓƵ. They didn't want both the team and the player to bring that unhappiness into training camp. The Blues feel they are better without him on the ice. And they felt that the 10 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounders from the last two years made next year's 2nd expendable to get rid of Hayes.
I would have probably been an advocate of retaining half of Hayes' salary and sending a fourth-rounder to Pittsburgh. Eat the salary for two years, and use one of those retention slots to make sure you hold on to a second-round pick.
But that's easy to say from here without know how the trade negotiations went. Even waiving Hayes and burying his contract in the AHL could have worked, but he still would have counted about $2.5M on the cap.
I also wondered if there was some desire to trade him before July 1, and avoid the $1.25M signing bonus Hayes was due.
Tim: Do you think it is more likely the blues use their existing cap space to move a D man, "buy" a first rounder via trade taking back a bad contract or let it go unused ? I would vote to use it to acquire pick(s) but wanted to get your thoughts.
Matthew DeFranks: Using cap space to acquire assets should be the goal this year, which is why the Hayes trade was as head-scratching as it was. Ideally, the Blues won't be in this position for much longer, so make the best of it and try to "help" out teams in cap crunches. I was a little surprised they didn't get an extra pick for taking on Radek Faksa, especially with the Stars really needing that cap space.
Matt L: The Blues do not seem worried about Snuggerud signing after the season, but I’m not sure why not. At the end of this season, he’ll only have one year left correct? I assume he makes decent NIL money playing at a program like Minnesota. Seems to me it would be quite attractive to stay one more year and become a UFA. Have the blues given any concrete reasons why they seem so sure he’s going to sign?
Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, Snuggerud is entering his junior season. Everything he has talked about has been in a one-year sort of lens in terms of trying to win a national title, taking on more leadership. When he made his decision, he referenced Brock Faber, who stayed three years and then left school.
There hasn't been any indication that Snuggerud wants to return for his senior year, and even then that he would want to wait until August to sign with a new team.
It's also a problem that doesn't really warrant concern. I did this research in the spring: Since the 2014 draft, there were 54 first-rounds that went to college. Only five returned for their junior season, and all five signed with the teams that drafted them.
I understand the Gauthier and McGroarty situations are ongoing, and you can lump those into the "not signing" pots. But the Blues have basically said "We want Snuggerud in the NHL at the end of his season," and there has been communcation between the side, which seems different than the scenarios in Philadelphia and Winnipeg.
Matt L: Is the central division shaping up as the best in hockey in a couple years? Utah seems like they’re coming. Chicago is going to be a factor again soon assuming Bedard is what he appears to be. Minnesota is about to get out of cap jail. Stars and Avalanche aren’t going anywhere and the Blues Preds and Jets put out competitive teams year after year with few exceptions.
Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, I can definitely see it. We're not too far removed from the Central being the best division in the league. I probably still lean towards the Atlantic. Florida, Boston, Tampa and Toronto have been good to great for years. The same optimism we see in Chicago and Utah also exists in Buffalo, Ottawa, Detroit and Montreal.
Of course, Tampa looks to be on its downswing in its cycle. (Side note: Is the Guentzel signing/letting Stamkos walk giving Blues fans Pietrangelo/Krug flashbacks?) Toronto is ending its run with its current core, maybe.
Matt L: I really like the Buch signing. I think teams can become sort of addicted to trading for more picks and prospects. You get used to losing more and you keep adding adding adding to the prospect pool. Prospects are fun and exciting because they’ve never failed, so it’s easy to be optimistic. The reality is you need a mix of veteran and young players, and Buch is a very good all around player. I think it’s a good bet that even as he gets into the back half of that contract he’ll continue to find ways to be useful.
Matthew DeFranks: It seems like a pretty fair deal. Buchnevich gets his term. Blues keep his AAV under Thomas and Kyrou. There will be a decline in performance for Buchnevich because, well, it happens to everyone. But the bet from the Blues is that he's able to stay healthy enough, and that he does enough things away from the puck that he still provides some value without the points.
Easy Ed--fan since 67: Hey Matt, things just got more interesting for us, I believe. I think the Blues are underrated for the coming season and will get better as the season progresses, players develop (Snuggerud's coming up, remember), and maybe a trade or signing is made. Their bottom six looks pretty tough to me, with big centers Faksa and Sundy, and the wings are big, defensively aggressive and fast, Joseph and maybe Kapanen. The third line likewise, big time with lots of potential, Texier and the big fast Russian. If Dvorsky or Boldac make the team, that makes the lower lines tougher--as you write, they won't keep them up to play 8 minutes, plus, I think the top two lines are already a match for opponents, and I feel Dvorsky has a real chance (Bolduc possibly, Dean for the lower six?). The goaltending is excellent. Now, we'll have to see how the d does==that's the big question. I think they'll be better merely because the forwards are much better defensively. The new coach had a good record for the team he had, and now he'll have training camp and a whole year to work a play. Your thoughts, please. Do you see a weakness there?
Matthew DeFranks: Easy Ed, you're always the ever optimist. The forward group still isn't skilled enough. Schenn had a bad season last year. Is Neighbours really a 30-goal scorer? Good teams have three scoring lines, and meanwhile Faksa is going from fourth-liner on the best team in the West to 3C in ºüÀêÊÓƵ. The bottom-six has little oomph, but they do what they do, and that's skate, defend and kill penalties.
Some things to remember about the prospects: If Minnesota loses in the first round of the NCAA tournament, Snuggerud will get a max of eight NHL games. If they win the national championship, it's quite literally one NHL game. I wouldn't count on his presence altering the trajectory of this team this season.
As for Dvorsky, it's still important to temper expectations. Robert Thomas had 33 points as a 19-year-old. Sure, that was in a third-line role. But something to keep in mind when projecting what Dvorsky could do in the NHL.
Evan: When will we hear from Pavel Buchnevich himself on the extension? JR said something about possible zoom meeting this week..
Matthew DeFranks: Hoping sometime soon. We're working with the Blues to schedule something.
Easy Ed--fan since 67: Addendum, Matt: I still think Pekarcik, another Slovak, may be good enough at some point, too. Bringing him and Dvorsky up together might work out like Federko-Sutter, who didn't start the year with the team.
Matthew DeFranks: Juraj Pekarcik was fun to watch again the prospects camp last week. As you know, he was on a line with Dvorsky at the WJC last year. He'll play somewhere in the CHL this season, and again in the WJC, I'm sure.
Pugger: Hey Matt! Good afternoon.. I am wondering what your thoughts are regarding the timeline on this rebuild... If we get lucky and lots of these young guys pan out, and become solid to excellent NHL'ers, but take 3/4/5 years.. That means that a number of current players will have aged out--Shenn, Parayko, Saad, Faulk, Krug, Leddy, and so on. So within 5 years we could be looking at pretty much an entirely new team. Thoughts? Thanks Matt!
Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, to me, this is happening in steps, so to speak. Like a color gradient. So the team will changeover because that's what teams do, and doubly so because many of their new acquisitions are on short-term contracts. There will be some holdovers (Thomas, Kyrou, Buchnevich, Schenn, Parayko from the older guys) and the Blues will have to find some new vets in the coming years to put around all their young guys.
Easy Ed--fan since 67: Addendum II: If Dvorsky makes the team, that'll move Schenn to his wing and Saad to the third line. They'll have a strong group of forwards. If they play 2-way team hockey, which their new wings do, they'll be tough to play against with Binner in net. Also, thank goodness they signed Buchy. And they probably overpaid a bit for Faksa because they weren't the only bidder--and his going to help the 4th line big time, with their big fast wingers.
Matthew DeFranks: Certainly a possible scenario for this coming season. It should be an expectation, I would think, for 2025-26.
Thowardmax: I threw this at JG, but I wanted to add this regarding Jiricek. Wouldn't it be best for the Blues to keep him in St Louis for the following reasons: Control his rehab for his ACL knee, get him on a good diet and upper body weight workout, have him around the practice facility to watch the very best work out and practice, be at home games and maybe travel from time to time to see what it is like here in the States and to live with one of the players.
Matthew DeFranks: If this is for the summer, then sure. Only reason not to would be because he's already been away from Czech for a lot because of his draft, and he'll likely be away for this coming season. He's an 18-year-old, and sometimes kids need to be home for a little bit.
As for this season, he needs to play. He already missed half of last season. He will be ready to skate in the next month, and the Blues are hoping he participates in training camp. These development years are so important, and he needs to play. If the idea is to keep him in ºüÀêÊÓƵ during this season just to watch, that would be a mistake.
Matt L: Some of the national pundits keep saying this is finally going to be the year we see some offer sheets. Well, we’re waiting.
Matthew DeFranks: I remember the feeling of awe I had when I saw the Aho offer sheet. That was a fun time.
Easy Ed--fan since 67: Winning 3-2 counts 2 points, Matt. Texier can score, and I think Sundqvist will be the third-line center. They may bring GA down a point a game. Plus, fresh talent will get a shot as the season progresses. We'll see.
Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, I get you. There is a best-case scenario in which they live up to ceilings. But we know that's not always the case (Vrana, Hayes, Blais, Kapanen).
Matt L: Got any Blues features planned for the July-August dead period (aka the worst time of the year)?
Matthew DeFranks: There's always space to fill in the newspaper, so there will be something. I've got interviews from development camp to get us through July basically. And August is always a grind.
Easy Ed--fan since 67: Matt, which player(s) impressed you the most at Prospects camp? I only got to see Day One. Lindstein appeared to be the man. Wow. How far away is he. He's kind of like that Russian Red Wing that played so many years: smooth as silk.
Matthew DeFranks: I think Theo Lindstein was the best player on the ice consistently. Made calm plays under pressure, used his feet to create space in the offensive zone, made smart plays in transition to get out of his own end. Loved what he brought and that he brought it consistently.
The big-name guys all had flashes, but were not as consistent as Lindstein. Stenberg seemed to be around the puck at every moment in all three zones. Snuggerud made some skilled plays in traffic, but couldn't seem to unload his shot all that often. Dvorsky would sometimes float and then, bam, the skill appeared. First time seeing Susuyev and he was fun to watch as he created for others.
Thowardmax: I get he is only 18, but again he is 18 and you know how 18 year olds eat and don't take care of their body. I am not saying all season. Move his a family member here then for a few weeks. This a HUGE investment and the Blues cannot get it wrong. You don't invest millions of dollars and hope he knows or follows directions you set forth.
Matthew DeFranks: Kind of like an extended spring training scenario? With injured players, it's not all that uncommon for them to see the NHL doctors. Last season even, Quinton Burns was back in ºüÀêÊÓƵ for a little bit as he rehabbed an injury. I will say that if Jiricek is in the OHL, he will have a lot more eyes and more frequent development staff eyes on him than in Europe. Those guys are always talking to prospects about diet and strength programs.
Thowardmax: Have you seen the new sweaters from Fanatics yet? I think I read people can buy the practice jerseys/sweaters too. Are the Blues doing a new sweater this year or next? I want the baby Blues to come back on a regular basis. Thoughts!
Matthew DeFranks: I've only seen photos of them. Haven't seen them in person. As for the baby blues, I asked CEO Chris Zimmerman about the club's appetite to return to those Heritage colors: “I will tell you that the Heritage uniform, the logo, all that that means has been really, really strongly endorsed. Our players have loved playing in that sweater on Saturdays. That’s become a great tradition. Our record is really strong. We are constantly evaluating where we are and how to both keep our uniform fresh and bring newness to it. That goal will continue.â€
Outside of Anaheim and LA, teams aren't making changes to their uniforms, but could be in the future. Zimmerman: “My belief is that uniforms are pretty much going to be the same for next year, the core uniforms, and teams can once again for the 25-26 timeframe look at adjustments, modifications, evolution. I expect us to be doing that as well.â€
Sctdog: If we look at the Thomas timeline and apply it to Dvorsky, assuming he makes the team at 19 like Thomas, this year he plays some but isn't a big contributor. In 2025 he's a regular NHL player but not really a 2nd much less 1st line regular, its not until 2026 he would be expected to hold his own in the top 6. If we apply this to the other draftees then the youth of the team doesn't really contribute until 2026 or 2027. Does this seem like a valid timeline or is the talent better or worse?
Matthew DeFranks: In my eyes, everything points towards the summer of 2026. That's when Steen takes over as GM. The coaching contracts are up, so there's the possibility of a new staff behind the bench. That's two more years of prospect development, and two more years of avoiding long-term cap headaches. They'll be a team with a young core on the rise with cap space available to fill holes.
The other thing is that development could happen in stages for these players. Dvorsky could be a middle-six guys before a top-six one, and he'll have the luxury of playing behind a guy like Thomas at the top of the lineup.
Sctdog: Nashville spent aggressively for some older talent earlier this month. Clearly they must believe they are ahead of the Blues curve in terms of transitioning. Do you think thge Blues act more like Nashville next eyar or the year after, or is that an unliekly model?
Matthew DeFranks: I can see it in 2026. Those are big bets on aging players that Nashville made. Kind of a curious time to make all those moves with an already older core (Josi, Forsberg, O'Reilly). Another big bet by them on Saros, too.
The Blues look to have a stronger prospect pool than Nashville, and in a couple years, should be in a position cap-wise and age-wise to spend, spend, spend.
Sctdog: If the Lidstien and this years number 1 develop as expected do either play for the club next year or is that too soon?
Matthew DeFranks: I think it's realistic to expect Lindstein to come over to North America in 2025-26. Jiricek, I guess we'll just have to see how this season goes potentially in the OHL.
Sctdog: Is Loof still a prospect? At almost 26 is Perunovich still a prospect for more than 3rd line and PP? The change in PP formations to just one D seems to have impacted the value of some of the skilled D, the second best offensive D now sees little PP time except for injury.
Matthew DeFranks: People define prospects differently, but my definition is basically the Calder definition. Less than 25 games played and younger than 26 years old. So in my mind, Loof is still a prospect.
I was actually thinking about the Blues PP the other day and wondering if they would go with a 2D look on the second unit. Let's say the top unit is Neighbours, Kyrou, Buchnevich, Thomas and Krug.
On the second unit, Saad goes in the bumper. Schenn goes in his one-timer spot on the halfwall. You could put Faulk in the other circle in his one-timer spot and Perunovich up top.
At the net-front, you could go with Toropchenko, Sundqvist, Faksa.
Sctdog: Are the Blues liekly to finish better or worse this eyar than last in terms of standings. It appears to be a tough year ahead.
Matthew DeFranks: I will say slightly worse, but that's only because I'm not sure the goaltending will again be top ... three? ... in the NHL. I think the roster is better than it was a year ago, but a little bit better at forward is more than offset by a step back in goal.
Of course, I also didn't see Binnington and Hofer putting up the seasons they did last year, so there's that, too.
Thowardmax: Thanks for the quotes on the sweaters. I guess when there isn't much to write about until training camp opens, you could do an article elaborating more on Mr. Zimmermann.
Matthew DeFranks: I have a feeling he'll be in the news the last week of July anyways. That's when the Bally bankruptcy hearings are scheduled, and the Blues should have clarity on what will happen with their broadcast rights in 2024-25. When I saw Zimmerman at prospect camp, it sounded like figuring out TV contingencies has taken a chunk of his time.
Dan Caesar is the ultimate authority on this stuff, and he wrote a while back about the Blues' options. One of those is over the air on channel 32-1, which is MyTV that is associated with channel 4.
Recently, we just saw the Stars go to their own streaming platform where in-market fans can watch for free.
Thowardmax: When watching the draft and the Blues pick coming up the commentators make a comment about St Louis hosting the Frozen 4 in 2025. Not much in the Post about that.
Matthew DeFranks: I'm going to defend my newspaper a little bit. It was in the paper when it was announced back in Oct. 2020. It was discussed in the spring when Centene hosted the NCAA regional. It's been mentioned when ºüÀêÊÓƵ was trying to land the World Juniors. It was touched on when the Blues schedule came out, and then obviously had to leave space for the Frozen Four at Enterprise.
Dennis Lappen: Blues will sign Sutter from Dallas and bolster our defense. Pair him with Faulk and you have two strong defensive pairings. Play Faulk on the first line power play unit.
Matthew DeFranks: I think it could have made sense in a different time. But Suter has lost a step and is slower. He can still play physically in front of the net, but I'm not sure he's what the Blues need. I would also be curious to know what his criteria for a new team was. I imagine he wants to Cup chase in his final year(s).
That's all the questions I see, so we'll call it there. Have a good week!
-
-
-
-
-
-
