Editor’s note: This is the seventh of 10 installments analyzing questions facing the Blues entering the 2024-25 season.
4. Will Pavel Buchnevich bounce back after a relative down season?
Most players would have loved to have had the season that Pavel Buchnevich had in 2023-24.
Across 80 games, he had 27 goals and 36 assists, good enough to rank third on the Blues with 63 points. But when he set the standard so high in his first two seasons in ºüÀêÊÓƵ — he averaged 86 points per 82 games — it was a relative down season for Buchnevich in terms of production.
Of course, there was a lot going on with the club’s 29-year-old winger.
He suffered an injury in the season’s first week. He endured extended scoring droughts, in part, because he wasn’t even using the sticks he was used to playing with. He managed his way through the trade rumors around the deadline, which ended with him sticking around in ºüÀêÊÓƵ. Then he also made another late-season position switch to center.
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Through it all, Buchnevich still delivered almost everything the Blues asked from him.
He was part of the top power-play unit that caught fire in the second half of the season, allowing ºüÀêÊÓƵ to claw into the playoff chase. Along with Robert Thomas, Buchnevich was a mainstay on the Blues’ penalty kill. He was on the ice if the Blues needed to close out a game, and he was on the ice if the Blues needed to tie up a game.
Buchnevich averaged 19:49 of ice time per game and was among the most impactful forwards on the team in terms of puck possession.
The Blues had 12.29 more shot attempts per hour at five on five with Buchnevich on the ice and allowed 7.08 fewer. Both were the best marks among regular Blues forwards. He impacted shots, scoring chances and goals in a similar way.
There’s plenty of reason to think that Buchnevich will again become a point-per-game player for the Blues.
He no longer has to think about his future as that was settled when he signed a six-year extension worth $8 million annually this summer. When accounting for Buchnevich’s final year under his current contract ($5.8 million cap hit), the extension will keep him in ºüÀêÊÓƵ for the next seven seasons.
Buchnevich’s underlying numbers also looked to be in line with his career figures — aside from shooting percentage, which can vary from season to season.
At five on five per hour, he had more shots on goal (7.17), expected goals (0.72) and shot attempts (13.31) than his career averages of 7.10, 0.67 and 12.14, respectively. So he was generating similar offense that he had previously in his career. The goals just weren’t going in.
This season could also be the first that Buchnevich begins at center. He finished the past two seasons at center but shifted back to wing for training camp last September.
But a lot of the rhetoric from the Blues, including general manager Doug Armstrong, has hinted at Buchnevich getting more of a look in the middle.
“We asked him about (playing) left wing, center, and his response was what you want to hear as someone that works in the hockey department, is: ‘I don’t really care. I just want to win,’†Armstrong said when the extension was announced. “If we find different centermen, he can go back to the wing. He can start at center, we can find wingers.â€