Read the full transcript of our weekly Blues chat.
Matthew DeFranks: Good afternoon. It's been a week since the Blues' season ended. Since then ... nothing has happened. ºüÀêÊÓƵ doesn't have a head coach, the first round is still young. Let's get to chatting.
Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: Happy Wednesday Matt. Have you noticed all the ex-Blues who did well in the regular season and now are in the playoffs? The Big Rig, Mikolla, Joshua just to name a few. Joshua had something like 18 goals this season! I am starting to think Army and the coaching staff aren't good judges of talent. What say you?
Matthew DeFranks: Every team is going to have their misses, and the Blues certainly have theirs. I just don't think these are the ones that tip the scales for me. The Dunn and Walman ones are killer, particularly with the way the defensive construction has gone since. If you added up all the goals that Dakota Joshua scored in the Blues organization, you would get 28. That's in three years, across the ECHL, AHL and NHL, and in both the regular season and playoffs.
There was nothing to suggest that Dakota Joshua was going to be scoring 18 goals this season and shooting over 20%.
IdiotSavant: If you were Snuggerud, and the Blues somehow begged, borrowed and stole to get Brady Tkachuk out of Ottawa, AND the Blues promised you that you could start on a line with Tkachuk and Thomas, would that inspire you enough to leave school and jump to the NHL? And the obvious follow-up: if you're Army, and you find out that Snuggerud would leave school to join a Tkachuk/Thomas line, might you be more willing to part with Kyrou, Dean AND Binnington in a deal?
Matthew DeFranks: I guess I struggle to see the connection between the Blues acquiring Brady Tkachuk and Jimmy Snuggerud wanting to leave school earlier. Any promise of playing time or linemates is also pretty flimsy. Lines and roles change all the time.
Additionally, what is the point of getting a player like Brady Tkachuk right now, giving up those assets to get him, and then not having an adequate goaltender to contend with? I don't know.
Matt L: After watching Army’s post season presser, my biggest takeaway was that he wants to tamp down any expectations for roster changes this offseason. Do you agree? We all know the UFAs that won’t be back and I think he’ll try to rework the D in the trade market, but he is signaling that he is not inclined to do a buyout or to move any assets or keep salary to move a contract.
Matthew DeFranks: I think Doug Armstrong didn't want to promise anything that he couldn't follow through on. I think the rhetoric was similar last year, and we saw him try to move Krug in a big deal, and then settled for ... Kevin Hayes in a trade, and Oskar Sundqvist and Mackenzie MacEachern in free agency. At this point, Armstrong knows the difficulty in changing the roster, and I just think he didn't want to say he would make big changes when he knows those are very hard to do with the numbers he has on the books.
As far as a buyout goes, the point he made is similar to the one we've talked about in this space before. If you take a hit on a buyout or a trade, what are you doing with that cap space/roster spot? Is that next move one that puts you where you want to be, or into contention? If not, you're just taking a hit on the books to get someone off your roster?
Vancouver bought on Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and then added Cole, Soucy and (in season) Zadorov to their defense corps. Minnesota bought out Suter and Parise, in part, to be able to afford a Kirill Kaprizov extension. Nashville got rid of Duchene and Johansen in order to add O'Reilly, Nyquist and Schenn. Even Dallas bought out Nichushkin because they needed cap space to sign Joe Pavelski.
Buyouts need to have a follow up to them. I'm not sure if Doug Armstrong views the follow-up as one that gets them to where they need be to in order to justify the financial pain.
Matt L: Sort of an off the wall Q here - I hate the 8:30 local starts in the playoffs. My guess is that TV execs are dictating those staggered starts not the league. But wouldn’t it be better for everyone involved to have a whip around show instead? Instead of doing east games and two west games a night, do all of the east games on the same night (you could still stagger them a little so they’re not hitting intermissions at the same time) and have a show on ESPN or TBS, whatever, that’s Red Zone style look ins at all the games. That’s great for the neutral fan, which is what hockey desperately needs especially since it’s not particularly conducive to betting.
Matthew DeFranks: Eh, I get what you're saying, but half the league is in the eastern time zone. They make the rules. On the night that the four Western series are going on, you would have no game to put in the early slot since realistically, 8 p.m. ET would be the start of whatever game is in CT. I think that's just too big of a missed window for the league.
Really, the Central teams are the only ones that get shafted. Mountain and Pacific teams are really okay. Obviously, the Eastern teams are, too.
I can't see the league overhauling postseason television for Chicago, Minnesota, Winnipeg, Nashville, ºüÀêÊÓƵ and Dallas.
STCBluesFan: Mikkola plays 20+ minutes a game on first pairing, +/- rating of +11, and played in all 82 games, did he do or say something? Or was it that Van Ryn didn't know how to coach a young talent?
Matthew DeFranks: Right now, Mikkola plays with Brandon Montour. In ºüÀêÊÓƵ, his most common partners were Colton Parayko and Robert Bortuzzo. You wonder if it would have worked better with Justin Faulk -- an offensive right-hander like Montour -- but Mikkola-Faulk got shelled whenever they were on the ice.
The Blues didn't want to pay for Mikkola to come back, especially with an already crowded blue line, and the thought that his role could be filled adequately by Tyler Tucker and Matthew Kessel.
Side note, he was only plus-1 at 5v5. I prefer that much more to plus/minus, and even goal differential at 5v5 has its issues.
mrr: With the cap going up...does the cost of premium players go up? Both in Free agency and, for players under contract, in assets traded? Doesn't Thomas (AND KYROU's) contracts look a lot better in this light?
Matthew DeFranks: You are 100% correct. As the cap goes up, agents will rightfully ask for the same percentage of the cap as previous deals instead of the raw cap hit. That will apply more to the top-end players than the middle class.
I've always been in the camp that Kyrou's deal is not an issue. He produces offensively, and offensive producers get paid. That's the way the NHL works. And the Blues got him on that deal during his prime years. The contract will be just fine.
Thomas' deal is already there. He's a top center on a great deal.
theMick: Hi Matt, Army seems comfortable letting the early round playoffs run their course before moving to hire a head coach. I don't see much attraction with the usual suspect candidates at this juncture and trust he will not follow Buffalo's lead and return to an old Cup-less retread like Lindy Ruff. For me, it comes down to either Joel Quenneville or allowing Bannister a full year with the team. What's your take?
Matthew DeFranks: The reason why it may not happen immediately is because Doug Armstrong wants to talk to coaches whose seasons are still going on. That leads me to AHL guys like Karl Taylor or Todd Nelson. Convincing David Carle to leave Denver. Those types of things.
I didn't get a Quenneville vibe from Armstrong when he discussed his criteria for the next coach.
Here's the full quote: “Wants to have the respect of the veteran players, but the ability for the younger players to express themselves and grab a bigger role. That’s a difficult task. You can go to a certain coach and you know what their mindset is, it’s ‘I have the team that I think can win the Stanley Cup, and here’s the guy that can get us over the next three or four percent.’ I believe in our team, but we’re not at that level quite yet. That removes a coach that would fill that criteria. This coach, we want to come in that has an understanding of pushing and prodding and expectations of a fanbase that should have expectations, but also knowing that we are in the process of doing something sustainable and allowing learning and growth to happen.â€
Quenneville feels like the coach you go after if that's the missing piece. The coach is not the missing piece for the Blues. Of course, there's also the fact that Quenneville isn't cleared to work in the NHL due to his role in the Blackhawks sexual assault scandal.
STCBluesFan: BTW...THANK YOU for your articles & chats! STL is lucky to have a devoted hockey writer for our team.
Matthew DeFranks: You're welcome. I'm lucky to have an audience like I do in ºüÀêÊÓƵ.
theMick: The salary cap is finally set to go up. What are your expectations on how much? Do you think it could help Army with bottom 6 and top 4 D-man reconstruction in the next 1-2 years?
Matthew DeFranks: Preliminary projections put the cap around $87.7 million next season. We won't find out for sure until later. It could help, sure, but it'll help every other team in the league, too. Getting a young defenseman in a trade, or developing your own No. 1 D is usually the best course of action. Really, Pietrangelo and Hamilton might be the only ones acquired in FA recently.
Matt L: Remind me, at most the Blues can move up 13 spots in the draft, is that right? And I know the chances of that are very low.
Matthew DeFranks: Nope, the most the Blues can move up in the draft is 10 spots. That changed a few years ago when they updated the lottery rules. So No. 6 is the best case scenario, and there's only a 1.1% chance of that happening. It's 98.9% of staying at 16, according to Tankathon.
theMick: That makes sense and seems to favor a return to the status quo. What could those other AHL guys you mention bring that the Blues' interim coach with 6 years in the organization cannot?
Matthew DeFranks: It's a good question, and one that I've thought to myself recently. Nelson had the best team in the AHL this season, and was fourth in the league last season. He has previous NHL head coaching experience, although some wonder if being a good AHL coach is his ceiling.
Taylor has been in the minors for almost two decades now. Milwaukee went on a 19-game win streak this season, and he was a finalist for the Nashville job before they went with Andrew Brunette. Taylor will leave the organization at some point since his NHL future isn't in Nashville.
As for Bannister, the AHL results aren't as prominent. There's the run to the Calder Cup Final, but not a ton else. Familiarly helps at first, especially with a midseason switch, but it shouldn't matter in the long run. A good coach is a good coach.
Lu: Feels a bit odd to me to see so many fans call for Quenneville. Is it a sure thing he gets reinstated by the league?
Matthew DeFranks: It is not. It's been about 2 1/2 years since the Block & Jenner report, and a little bit shorter since Quenneville resigned from Florida.
Easy Ed: Hey Matt, congratulations of an outstanding writing season. In the grading article, they give Kyrou a B- for the overall season, including under Chief. But what grade would you give him for just the last month? two months? Since the new coach arrived? By the end, he was playing excellent D for an offensive winger, skating well most nights, and making things happen on a team that had trouble scoring. Also, remember, in the next three years, 12--a DOZEN--first or second rounders will turn pro for the Blues. There are plenty of jobs to take for these kids. Also, I though Kapanen had some good games speed and defense-wise, but he didn't score much. I'd resign him for a year. Will the Blues? Be well and happy.
Matthew DeFranks: Jordan Kyrou was one of the best players on the Blues across the last month of the season. I understand the frustration fans have with his battle level sometimes, but he is pretty consistently a net positive for the Blues when he's on the ice. They create so much more offensively, and that possession keeps the puck away from the defensive zone. It was a down season production-wise, but even when he wasn't scoring, he was generating chances. Remember when he couldn't score on a breakaway in October? I think Kyrou's season was fine. Do you want more consistency? Yes. Was he the issue for the Blues? No.
As for Kapanen, I don't see it. If you want a guy to skate and forecheck and kill penalties, you already have one in Toropchenko. Mini versions in Walker and maybe Dean. No need to bring back Kapanen.
Easy Ed: Glad you see Kyrou's final month as I did. He was terrific for a young man. Is Kapanen's contract expiring? What was his cap hit roughly? When he did shoot, he missed the net. Also, Dvorsky's co-national, a right winger, I saw him once, but that kid looked like a young Yari Kuri to me. Is he in the states?
Matthew DeFranks: Yes, Kapanen's contract is up after this season. His cap hit was $3.2 million, but he will be taking a paycut for sure on his next deal.
I imagine you're talking about Juraj Pekarcik, the third-rounder from last year. Yes, he is in the United States, he's playing in the USHL with Dubuque this season, and had nine goals and 50 assists in 43 games. He's currently in the playoffs.
Sort of an odd choice to go to the USHL since that's basically a feeder towards college hockey, but I guess we'll see where that path takes him.
STCBluesFan: Hey Matt, how about the goalies in the FL vs TB game last night!! WOW, highlight reel save after highlight reel save by both...gotta luv playoff hockey!!
Matthew DeFranks: That was a great game last night. One of those games where Bobrovsky's 21 saves don't illustrate just how good he was in net. Vasilevskiy always has a chance to Vasilevskiy you, also. I'm glad that Tampa-Florida has had a few recent series against each other to build up that rivalry now that the Panthers have arrived.
Easy Ed: Yes, Pekarcik. Maybe he wants to get a degree or partial degree at an American college before shooting for the NHL. Give him some good language and social experience, college. Also, the Blues have DEAD ON shots from the center of the ice, time and space, and they pass to the wing. What is with that? What is their thought process? Thanks, Matt.
Matthew DeFranks: I'm sure it's different things at different times. Lack of confidence may lead you to defer. Sometimes, there's a stick in the way we can't see. Or the timing is tough to get a good shot off. Or sometimes, it's just baked into the pie. If you want the crazy, highlight Robert Thomas passes, you have to live with the times the puck gets passed up too much.
That was on a micro level. On a macro level, the Blues don't have enough guys that go to the front of the net. This was something Doug Armstrong noted, and when you don't have those guys, you tend to have perimeter guys that pass too much.
Lennie: Do you agree that the Blues are lacking toughness, especially in playoff hockey?
Matthew DeFranks: We've had this discussion here before, and toughness means different things. It's not about dropping the gloves and fighting as your only job. That's an almost purposeless job nowadays. But the Blues need more "hard skill," guys like Neighbours that can compete hard, get greasy, protect teammates and also put up 25 goals. It's about producing on one end, and protecting your goalie/teammates on the other.
I'm not sure Jonathan Marchessault or Brayden Point come up on the lists of toughest guys in the league. But they're feisty, tenacious, fearless and productive. The Blues need more of those types of players to compete and battle more in the hard areas.
We'll call it there for today. Enjoy the rest of the week, and the playoff games. See you next week.
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